Skip navigation



--> mht_banner_moving.jpg Subscribe to "Happy" Membership     Subscribe in a reader FREE     Subscribe via Email FREE

Fed Cuts Rates By Half-A-Point: SPX, Nasdaq, BTU, ACI, MEE, POT, MON, MOS, CNX, SPWRA, ENER

from MyHappyTrading.com by HappyTrading! ™ Sign up for FREE membership!

Last night, I commented, “The market could probably carry this upward momentum into the morning.  Then, things will likely get volatile before and after the Fed announcements.”  The marke showed strength through most of the day.  It started to lose steam before the Fed announcements, and dropped immediately after the Fed announced a half-a-point cut in interest rates.  Then, it rallied back up.  The Dow was up over 200 points.  But, in the last 15 minutes, the market took a sharp dive!  The Dow ended down 74.16 points; SPX lost 10.42 points; Nasdaq added +7.74 points.

The financials were very weak today, as XLF slid 6.16%!  Commodity-related sectors were mostly higher.  Coals stocks made some big bounces: BTU +11.26%; MEE +11.42%; CNX +18.15%; ACI +11.31%.  Agriculture shares were strong also:  POT +13.95%; MON +5.75%; MOS +12.24%. 

The market has been very volatile.  So, I have been making quick daytrades and not publishing too many, as they are more difficult for our subscribers to follow.  There are couple of trades that I made in the past few days that I thought I could share for our subscribers/readers to keep an eye on, especially if the market gets stronger:
POT +46.5% (Dec 85 calls)

These options went as high as $9.5 today and closed at $8.39.

CF +27% (Nov 50 calls)

I cashed this one out yesterday just before the close.  These went higher today, up to $10.46.  MON has been exceptionally strong in this bounce; and, the options are cheaper.

GENZ +71.4% (Nov 70 calls)

GENZ was on fire yesterday, charging up +12%.  It came back down today, losing 4.32%.  If the market can sustain this rally, GENZ should go back up!

Here’s how the market closed:

VIX ended up, closing almost at 70.  Commodity-related sectors lead the market: OIH (oil services) +6.98%; XME (metals and mining) +8.31%; USO (oil) +4.62%; UNG (natural gas) +7.17%; DBA (agricultural commodities) +3.45%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) slipped 3.52%.

SPX

SPX lost 10.42 points to close at 930.09.  It closed above the 10-day MA.  The MACD went higher, showing a bullish crossover.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq added +7.74 points to close at 1657.21.  it closed above the 1650 level and above its 10-day MA.  The MACD also shows a bullish crossover.

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance SitesWell, the major market indices are finally showing bullish crossovers in the MACD.  But, as I said last night, “The market will need to show a follow-through and perhaps close above the 20-day MA to make a difference this time.”  The market did test the 20-day MA, but, was not able to close above; and, we can’t really call today’s actions a “follow-through”.  The marke would have made it, if it weren’t for the sharp dive in the last 15 minutes.  The market barely closed above the 10-day MA and VIX is still at 70.  Tomorrow, we have the GDP report, which is not expected to be good.  We’ll also get the jobless claims.  The market is definitely trying to turn, but, it has not proven itself that it is ready to call a bottom.  We’ll have to see what it does tomorrow.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 10/29 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Posted By optiondragon for myhappytrading.com

From Briefing.com
oct-29th-up.png
oct-29th-up2.png

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Wednesday, October 29th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: According to people familiar with the talks, the Wall Street Journal reported that GMAC LLC is looking to become a bank holding company. This move would give the lender, co-owned by General Motors (GM) and Cerberus Capital, access to the government’s $700B financial rescue plan…The Wall Street Journal also reported that Motorola’s (MOT) Sanjay Jha, the head of its mobile division and co-CEO of the company, is looking to focus on Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system as the software platform for its showcase phones, sources said. The sources believe Jha will reveal his plans as early as Thursday when the company reports earnings; the people familiar with the situation believe Jha’s plans will include thousands of layoffs…FINANCIAL TIMES: The Financial Times reported that General Motors and Cerberus Capital are looking to finalize a deal for the automaker to acquire its stake in Chrysler before the U.S. election next week…BARRON’S ONLINE: Potash Corp. (POT), which has fallen 71% since hitting an all-time high of more than $241 in June, may be getting its second wind, according to Barron’s Online. Even with more moderate expectations for fertilizer prices and volume sales, the company should continue to post double-digit earnings growth over the next few years. While, this may not be the bottom for the stock, but the dramatic pullback indicates there’s more reward than risk at this level…IHT: The International Herald Tribune reported that due to the U.S. financial crisis, BHP Billiton (BHP) is set to close its Suriname operations by 2010. About 1,100 workers will be laid off…

Asian Markets Wrap-Up for Wednesday, October 29
Stocks in Asia advanced as Japan was said to be considering a rate cut and China was considering moves to help equities…JAPAN: The Nikkei rose 589.98, or 7.7%, to 8,211.90, while the broader Topix index increased 46.29, or 5.9%, to 830.32. Honda (HMC) jumped 18% to Y2,440. Toyota (TM) was up 10% to Y3,500. Nissan Motor (NSANY) added 11% to Y471. Panasonic (PC) increased 4.6% to Y1,471. Promise surged 15% to Y1,526. Nintendo Co. (NTDOY) was up 12% to Y27,600. Daikin Industries leapt 17% to Y2,050. Canon (CAJ) gained 6.9% to Y2,730…CHINA: The CSI 300 Index retreated 47.60, or 2.8%, to 1,658.22. Guangxi Liugong lost 10% to 10.13 yuan. Haitong Securities was down 7.8% to 19.46 yuan. Citic Securities Co. fell 7.4% to 17.68 yuan. Guoyuan Securities Co. was down 9% to 12.16 yuan. Air China slid 0.30 yuan, or 7.5%, to 3.69. China State Shipbuilding Co. was up 1.02 yuan, or 3.1%, to 33.79…AUSTRALIA: The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 51 points, or 1.3%, to 3,845.60. BHP Billiton (BHP) added 3.7% to A$26.30. Rio Tinto (RTP) increased 3.7% to A$70.78. Macquarie climbed 3.6% to A$28.50. Commonwealth Bank added 2.3% to A$40.30. Newcrest Mining (NCMGY) was up A$1.15 cents, or 3.1%, to A$38.25. Woodside Petroleum (WOPEY) was up A$1.15, or 3.1%, to A$38.25…AROUND ASIA: In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index advanced 105.78, or 0.84%, to 12,702.07.

Potash-POT is “fertile” ground for long-term investors - Barron’s Online
Potash Corp. (POT), which has fallen 71% since hitting an all-time high of more than $241 in June, may be getting its second wind. Potash Corp. is backed by powerful and sustainable fundamentals. As the world’s population continues to grow, rising middle classes in emerging markets like China and India are demanding more nutritious diets. And three of Potash’s fertilizers are increasingly important to farmers seeking to increase the yield and quality of soybeans, corn and other crops that they grow. Ultimately, farmers will need to replenish soil or risk lower crop yields. A subsequent crop shortage would boost crop prices, increase profits and spur demand for fertilizers. Potash Corp. posted its best quarter ever for the third quarter last Thursday. Even with more moderate expectations for fertilizer prices and volume sales, the company should continue to post double-digit earnings growth over the next few years. While, this may not be the bottom for the stock, but the dramatic pullback indicates there’s more reward than risk at this level.

Deutsche Bank’s Q3 results may indicate a need to raise capital-FT
Though Deutsche Bank (DB) has resisted seeking equity from investors and insists its balance sheet is strong, many analysts believe the bank’s asset quality and banking activities “must have suffered further amid weeks” of turmoil in the markets. Additionally, they believe the bank may need to raise fresh capital eventually because it likely cannot remain the “only odd one out” — the issue, they believe, is not if they will need to raise capital, but how much.

Ackman could lobby Target to sell real estate holdings-NY Post
According to sources, Pershing Square Capital shareholder activist Bill Ackman may look to push Target (TGT) to sell its holdings in real estate to a newly created subsidiary. Under the reported plan, Ackman, who pushed Target to sell nearly half its credit card business to JP Morgan (JPM), would look for the subsidiary to lease the stores back to Target, giving the retailer a lot of cash on its balance sheet. With a lot of cash, Target could possibly buy back its shares at bargain prices. Yesterday, Target said it has “serious concerns” about Ackman’s ideas.

Surge in Volkswagen shares slams hedge funds-WSJ
Over the last two days shares of Volkswagen (VLKAY) have soared 348% as Porsche increased their stake. For hedge funds who bet on the stock’s decline the losses from their bets are expected to be in the billions, reports the Wall Street Journal

First the mortgage crisis, now the credit card crisis?-NY Times
According to the New York Times, the next “crisis” on the way is the credit card crisis. As lenders are cutting credit card offers and high credit lines due to the state of the economy, the banking industry is again threatened with another wave of losses. Analysts believe the industry, which includes MasterCard (MA), Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) stands to lose “at least another $55B” over the next year and a half plus further layoffs, and credit card net charge-offs could exceed historical norms, Citigroup (C) CFO Gary Crittenden believes. To stave off a crisis, lenders such as American Express, Target (TGT) and Bank of America (BAC) have tighened the standards for applications and are cutting risky customers; Capital One (COF) has shut down inactive accounts.

Biotech firms shaken by financial crisis-WSJ
The biotech industry is in turmoil. “The whole way of doing business is gone, at least temporarily. Companies that don’t have a lot of cash or assets to generate cash” are in trouble, says George A. Scangos, CEO of Exelixis (EXEL), a California biotech firm. Some are expected to file for bankruptcy, cut employees, or sell to larger companies. At risk, reports the Wall Street Journal, is a slowdown in developing new medicines. And that wouldn’t be good news for pharamceutical companies.

U.S. equity futures now point to a higher open
U.S. equity futures are now pointing to a higher open as they have been slowly rising throughout the morning. Corporate earnings continue to flow in with Proctor & Gamble (PG) the latest Dow component to report. The company reported better than expected earnings and revenue, and provided good guidance going forward. The company also said it’s continuing to access the credit markets without any issues, and that they have no plans to use the government’s commercial paper facility. The shares of P&G are up about .75% this morning in premarket trading at $63.60 per share. The durable goods orders number was reported at an increase of .8% versus an expected decline of -1.1%. If you take out transportation items it was reported as a decline of -1.1% versus an expected decline of -1.5%.

Analysts Initiation Summary for Wednesday, October 29th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apollo Investment (AINV) and Pharmasset (VRUS) were today’s noteworthy initiations: Merrill initiated Apollo Investment with a Buy rating and $12 target. The firm is positive on the company’s low debt levels vs. other business development companies. Pharmasset (VRUS) was assumed with an Outperform rating at Cowen. The firm is positive on Pharmasset�s valuation based on prospects for its HCV nucleoside polymerase inhibitor, R7128…OTHER INITIATIONS: Morgan Stanley initiated NYSE Euronext (NYX) with an Underweight rating and $21 target and Nasdaq (NDAQ) with an Equal Weight rating. Research in Motion (RIMM) was started at BMO Capital with a Market Perform rating.

Analysts Downgrade Summary for Wednesday, October 29th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dominion Resources (D), Zymogenetics (ZGEN) and Aeropostale (ARO) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: Jefferies downgraded shares of Dominion Resources to Underperform from Hold and lowered its target to $30 from $43.50 based on the company’s growing need to issue equity as they believe Dominion will face a growing funding gap from reduced asset sales and lower cash contributions from its commodity businesses. Piper cut Zymogenetics to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $4 from $14 to reflect the slower-than-expected launch of RecoThrom. Friedman Billings downgraded Aeropostale to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe macro challenges and tougher compares will limit upside. The firm recommends selling into strength and lowered their target to $28 from $32…OTHER DOWNGRADES: Goldman cut Altera (ALTR) to Sell from Neutral at Xilinx (XLNX) to Neutral from Buy. Andersons (ANDE) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens. LodgeNet (LNET) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley.

Analysts Upgrade Summary for Wednesday, October 29th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Constellation Energy (CEG), Denny’s Corp (DENN) and Daimler AG (DAI) were today’s noteworthy upgrades: Jefferies upgraded shares of Constellation Energy to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $26.50 from $25 on valuation as they believe MidAmerican Energy will consummate the merger. The firm points out shares are trading at a 14% discount to the $26.50 offer. Merriman upgraded Denny’s Corp to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company’s restructuring and successful menu and food cost management should stabilize operating margins. Daimler was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the stock is oversold at current levels…OTHER UPGRADES: Taiwan Semi (TSM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC. Veolia Environnement (VE) was lifted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse. Goldman raised PMC Sierra (PMCS) to Buy from Neutral.

S&P Sectors that may Benefit from a Falling Dollar
Ahead of the FOMC decision on rates, the US Dollar is down sharply against its basket this morning. As a result commodity prices are rising. As long as the decline in the dollar persists this is likely to be a benefit to Energy and Materials which have been pushed down hard in recent weeks as the dollar has screamed to the upside off its lows. The ETFs that track these sectors, the S&P Select Materials SPDR (XLB) and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) may benefit. Both moved up to the top of their daily bearish price channels yesterday. The pivots for the XLB are at $25.575 (pivot high) and $22.785 (pivot low). For the XLE the pivots are at $50.105 (pivot high) and $44.075 (pivot low). It is generally believed to be bullish when price breaks out above the pivot high or bearish when price breaks down below the pivot low.

Amazon.com-AMZN: Levels to Watch as the ‘O’ Effect Fades
The stock has been on an incredible tear to the upside following earnings when the shares hit the 52-week low at the $43 area. Although guidance was abysmal the stock benefited from positive mention and promotion by Oprah concerning the Kindle product. It is likely that at some point the positive buzz from this will fade and the harsher reality of a tough Christmas will return to trader mindsets. There was a Barron’s piece reminding traders of these conditions yesterday (see note here). Resistance is at $57.11, the 21 day moving average and the proxy for the primary downtrend resistance line. Support levels to watch as potential downside objectives are at $55.13, $54.31, $53.44, $52.56, $51.37, $50.40, $49.63, $48.80, $47.86, $47.00, $46.28, $45.15.

S&P 500-SPX: Bullish Flag on 5-Minute Futures Chart
There is a bullish flag in progress on the 5-minute futures chart that has upside potential to 990. The flag would no long be valid on a breakdown below 925. This is the futures, not the cash

US Steel-X shares compelling at current levels, says Soleil
Soleil believes US Steel shares are compelling following the company’s “strong” Q3 results and maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

Life Insurance: Do not expect Treasury funding to succeed, says Barclays
Barclays does not believe the Life Insurance industry will be successful in securing new preferred-stock funding from the Treasury under the Capital Repurchase Program. Specifically, the firm does not expect HIG, PRU or MET to secure funding.

Semiconductor industry growth rates lowered at Banc of America
Banc of America now expects Semiconductor industry sales to contract 5% in 2009 versus their prior expectation of up 7% entering the reporting season. The firm lowered their estimates for the group but believes the stocks are already discounting much of the bad news. Banc of America’s top picks in the group are Atheros (ATHR), Broadcom (BRCM), Altera (ALTR), Xilinx (XLNX) and Intel (INTC).

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer said a barometer to predict huge one-day rallies like the 889-point one on Tuesday, is by using Apple (AAPL). Cramer said Apple is the true litmus test for the market. Apple has the best fundamentals, the best balance sheet and the best growth of just about any company, said Cramer. That’s why if Apple’s stock price is falling, the markets are clearly headed lower. Next, Cramer said investors looking for stocks that will rally in an Obama presidency need look no further than AeroVironment (AVAV), Cramer told his viewers. Cramer talked with chairman and CEO Tim Conver. Cramer recommended the stock before its IPO on Jan. 7, 2007, and again on March 8, 2007 at $21.43 a share. Since then, the stock has risen 40%, even in a bear market. Conver also said that AeroVironment has huge growth opportunities because it sells products not only to the U.S. military but also to many NATO allies. Cramer is still a fan of the company’s clean balance sheet, no debt and growth opportunities. In a turbulent market, Cramer said investors need to consider stocks with limited downside risk that trade at or near their cash value. That’s why he’s recommending women’s clothing retailer Bebe Stores (BEBE) as a great valuation play. Cramer said a turnaround may now be upon us, with the company’s inventory turnover improving and guidance finally lowered to a level that Bebe can beat. “The bad news is already in the stock,” he said. Cramer said he also likes BeBe’s cash position, with $4 per share currently on the books and the share repurchase plan. MAD MAIL: ATVI - Cramer does not expect a strong Christmas and would still “say away”. During a recession, Cramer said he is a buyer of AVP, but a seller of TM, and ACS. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) AFAM; CAT; BAC; WFC; BBT; GS. (Bearish) C.

Fast Money Postion recap: Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (WMT), (SDS), (UUP), (MCD); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (F), (MER), (TSO), (RIO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EEM); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (BBT), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO)

Fed Day today and what a rally out of nowhere yesterday! Keeping nimble into the Fed decision then analyzing. The market moved on the Yen dropping and short covering going beserk. FXY and the dollar could be leading indicators here in the short term. Will it be a 25, 50, or 75 basis point cut? We will know shortly. How the market will ultimately react to the cut and the accompany statement will be the final say. Art Cashin thinks the move up is very promising and could be an intermediate bottom that could last through the year. Buckle your seatbelts! See you in the trading room!

Dow Rallies Above 9000! SPX, Nasdaq, JPM, WFC, BAC, PRU, STT, APOL, ESI

from MyHappyTrading.com by HappyTrading! ™ Sign up for FREE membership!

The day after nearly testing 8000, the Dow came back and rallied above 9000, closing at 9065.12!  The market was weak in the morning, but rallied hard in the last hour.  Strength was seen across the board.  Even commodity-related sectors went higher.  Financials lead the pack:  JPM +10.59%; WFC +11.77%; BAC +12.13%; PRU +13.18%; STT +17.15%.

After the market APOL reported a quarterly profit that more than doubled from the year beforeAPOL shares went up +5.32% in AH trading, on top of the +9.83% gain earlier today.  ESI also reported well last week, and, should go higher from here.

The Dow was up +889.35 points; SPX jumped +91.59 points; Nasdaq gained +143.57 points:

Most sectors captured solid gains today.  VIX closed below 70.  XLF (financials) lead the market with +15.77%.  XLE (energy) added +15.25% and XME (metals and mining) gained +14.53%.  Even USO (oil) closed higher!  FXI (Chinese ADRs) jumped +20.03%!

SPX

SPX jumped +91.59 points to close at 940.51.  It closed above the 10-day MA and the 900 level.  The MACD is just showing the start of a bullish crossover.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq added +143.57 points to close at 1649.47.  It closed just below the 1650 level, but, above the 10-day MA.  The MACD went up.

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance SitesYesterday, in my evening post, I showed the weak technicals on the market.  I also said, “[The market] will need a big, substantial rally to overturn the 10-day MA.”  Well, was this it?  The market indices did close above the 10-day MA.  But, all this did was get us back to where we were before, dealing with SPX 900 and Nasdaq 1650.  Both indices now are showing possible, bullish crossover again, which we’ve experienced last week.  VIX is still above 60. Skeptism seems to be on the market about this rally.  Perhaps the market has been “crying wolf” about the bottom (or, should I say “crying bull”?) too many times lately.  The market could probably carry this upward momentum into the morning.  Then, things will likely get volatile before and after the Fed announcements.  The market will need to show a follow-through and perhaps close above the 20-day MA to make a difference this time.  If not, we’re back to “crying wolf”; or was that “crying bull”!?!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 10/28 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Posted by Optiondragon for myhappytrading.com

From Briefing.com
oct-28-up.png
oct-28-up2.png

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, October 28th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: In a move that can ease the way for a discussed merger between General Motors (GM) and Chrysler, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Bush administration is working to release to GM a portion of the loans Congress approved for the auto industry, a source familiar said…The Wall Street Journal also reported that if the Treasury Department’s capital-infusion program expands to the insurance sector, insurers could be pushed into mergers…IBD: One place where sales are still percolating are at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Investor’s Business Daily’s “The New America” reported. Not only have sales increased at double digit rates for 11 straight quarters, but the company’s purchase of the Tully’s coffee brand for $40.3M, which is expected to close in December, gives it another boost…NEW YORK TIMES: In recent weeks, Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt has hinted that the company is looking to the energy sector as a potential business opportunity. In addition to a collaboration with General Electric (GE) CEO Jeffrey Immelt on policies and technologies aimed at improving the electricity grid, the New York Times reported that Google engineers are hoping to soon unveil tools to help consumers make better decisions about their energy use…

Asian Markets Wrap-up for Tuesday, October 28
Stocks rose in a majority of Asian countries, as bargain hunters bought stocks whose values have dropped sharply in previous days. JAPAN: The Nikkei 225 surged 6.41%, to 7,621.92. Isuzu (ISUZY) jumped 21%. Nippon Steel (NISTY) also gained 21% and JFE Holdings (JFEEF), another steel company, advanced 16%. Kao Corp. (KCRPY), which makes household products, rallied 8.3%. A number of real estate companies fell, with Mitsubishi Estate and Sumitomo Realty (SURDF) both dropping 12%. CHINA The CSI 300 Index climbed 3.09% to 1,705.82. Bank of Nanjing surged 10%, while Shanghai Pudong Development and Bank of Beijing both jumped 9.9%. Citic Securities rose 8.3% and Haitong Securities climbed 10%. China Vanke (CVKEF) dropped 1.5% after reporting that its Q3 earnings slumped 13%. AROUND ASIA: South Korea’s KRX 100 advanced 4.97% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index soared 14.35%, but Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell 4.72%….Honda Motor (HMC) reported that its Q2 profits plunged 41% year-over-year.

U.S. equity markets continue to point a a higher open
Stocks continue to point to a sharply higher open. The sharp rise is to be expected given the extreme volatility that has marked Wall Street over the past several weeks. The Federal Reserve begins its two day meeting today to discuss the direction of interest rates. Interest rates have fallen on Treasury securities as investors rushed to a flight for safety. The overnight Libor rate continues to drop in a ongoing sign of an easing in the credit markets. Investors will receive data today on consumer confidence and manufacturing as well as home prices

Analysts Upgrade Summary for Tuesday, October 28th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Integra LifeSciences (IART), Choice Hotels (CHH) and major airline carriers were today’s noteworthy upgrades: Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Integra LifeSciences to Outperform from Perform on valuation, the company’s minimal exposure to economic conditions, and expectations for margin improvement and a rebound in organic growth. JP Morgan upgraded Choice Hotels to Neutral from Underweight following the better-than-expected Q3 report. Calyon upgraded major network carriers based on falling oil prices and capacity cuts. The analyst is positive over the next 12 months but cautious short-term given the uncertain economy, and volatile markets and oil prices. AMR Corp (AMR) and Delta (DAL) were upgraded to Add from Neutral and UAL (UAUA) was raised to Neutral from Reduce…OTHER UPGRADES: Ryanair (RYAAY) was upgraded at Citigroup to Buy from Hold. Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank. Cowen lifted Biogen Idec (BIIB) to Outperform from Neutral.

Analysts Downgrade Summary for Tuesday, October 28th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: AmeriCredit (ACF), ION Geophysical (IO) and Embarq (EQ) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of AmeriCredit to Underperform from Market Perform following the Q1 earnings beat, as they are incrementally cautious on the company’s outlook given economic deterioration. Jefferies cut ION Geophysical to Hold from Buy and lowered the target to $6.50 from $16 as they believe the company’s land equipment business will be negatively impacted by conservative capital spending. UBS downgraded Embarq to Neutral from Buy following the CenturyTel (CTL) merger announcement…OTHER DOWNGRADES: PCTEL (PCTI) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Baird. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) and AerCap Holdings (AER) were downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.

Analysts Initiation Summary for Tuesday, October 28th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intuit (INTU), Andersons (ANDE) and New York Times (NYT) were today’s noteworthy initiations: Banc of America initiated Intuit with a Neutral rating and $27 target. The firm wants to make sure Street estimates reflect macro risks before becoming positive on the stock. Soleil assumed Andersons with a Hold rating and $33 target and prefers a conservative approach to shares with pricing in the agriculture space coming off elevated levels. Citigroup initiated New York Times with a Sell rating and $7 target and believes the company’s “best” internet offering among peers is not enough to offset the premium valuation…OTHER INITIATIONS: Babcock & Brown (FLY) was started with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. Google (GOOG) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $400 target and Yahoo! (YHOO) was assumed with a Neutral rating at Credit Suisse.

Earthquake in Iran may have been a nuclear bomb test-Israel Insider
An earthquake last weekend in southern Iran may have been an underground nuclear bomb test. The source was an Iranian nuclear scientist said to be working on uranium enrichment for the project. A map of the test site was published before the seismic event. Another source says that it was actually a second test. Israeli and other sources have speculated that Iran would only begin testing nuclear bombs when a full production line for nuclear weapons was ready.

Solar: SPWRA, ENER, ESLR & SOLR downgraded at UBSW
UBS lowered global solar demand estimates based on residential customer uncertainty. The firm downgraded SPWRA to Sell from Neutral and ESLR, ENER, adn SOLR to Neutral from Buy.

First Solar-FSLR share weakness from here a buying opportunity, says Citigroup
Citigroup sees EPS risk to Q4 and Q1 Street estimates due mostly due to currency, but would use any weakness from current levels to aggressively buy the stock. The firm lowered their target to $205 from $450 but reiterates a Buy rating on shares.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer said Monday night that the U.S. markets, while it lost 38.3% of its value so far this year, it pales in comparison to the losses suffered by China, Russia and Brazil. Those markets are down 70%, 75% and 52% respectively year to date. Cramer gave two reasons for the disparity: First, the international markets simply have had further to fall. Second, the U.S. dollar, now “the strongest currency in the world,” is making U.S. stocks more attractive to foreign investors. Cramer said high-yielding dividend stocks have become the flight-to-quality play for foreign investors. He noted Altria (MO), Pepsi (PEP) and Verizon (VZ) as the perfect safe havens. Cramer said he’s also warming up to the regional banks, now flush with cash thanks to Uncle Sam. He mentioned BB&T (BBT) as one of his favorites. Next, Cramer talked about US Steel (X), which trades at a paltry two-times earnings. During the day on Monday, UBS lowered its earnings estimates for US Steel to just $5 a share. Cramer said the remaining 10 analysts of the stock still rate it a buy or hold and have earnings pegged at an average of 2.5 times that of the new UBS estimates. Cramer warned that US Steel is bracing for a wave of downgrades and earnings cuts that will likely pulverize the stock even harder. Even U.S. Steel’s 3.5% dividend yield may not be safe, he said. Then Cramer talked about the coal stocks. With disappointing earnings out from industry giant Arch Coal (ACI), “none of the coal stocks are safe”, says Cramer. Cramer said it’ll be only a matter of time before worldwide demand slows, accelerated by a stronger dollar. MAD MAIL: recession-resistant stocks like Covance (CVD) should still be bought on weakness, despite recent declines. Cramer said, stay away from Goodyear (GT) because it is a cyclical play that’s levered to autos. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) FWLT; JNJ; PEG; ED; DUK; FCX. (Bearish) V; MET; WX; MVL; WFR.

Fast Money position recap: Adami Owns (AGU)(BTU)(C)(GS)(INTC)(MSFT)(NUE) — Macke Owns (MCD)(WMT)(MSFT)(SDS)(UUP) — Pete Najarian Owns (INTC) And Is Short (INTC) Calls, (MGM) And Is Short (MGM) Calls, (MS) Put Spread — Jon Najarian Owns (UBS)(FCX) Calls, (SU) Calls — Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR)(IJR)(MDY)(SPY)(IWM)(BBT)(COF) — Finerman Owns (GS) — Finerman’s Firm Owns (JNJ)(MRK)(MSFT)(SUN) — Finerman’s Firm Is Short (USO) — Gartman Owns (FXE) And Is Short (FXY) — CIBC Gartman Index Is Long The Australian Dollar And Is Short The Euro

The Ominuous Drop Of The 10-day MA! SPX, Nasdaq, FSLR, GOOG, RIMM

from MyHappyTrading.com by HappyTrading! ™ Sign up for FREE membership!

This weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote,
“The big thing to watch this week is the 10-day MA (red line) on major indices.  If the 10-day MAs curve down, it could signal further slide in the markets.”

What did I mean by that?  Let’s take a look at today’s charts:
SPX

A lot of times when the market goes into a trend (needless to say, presently, it is a down trend), it goes in steps.  It rides the bollinger band (either down or up, depending on the trend) for a while; then, we see it trade in a range, which results in the 10-day MA flattening out.  If the trend were to continue, we see the 10-day MA curving (either up or down) to signal a possible new leg.

Looking at the SPX daily chart, we see that in the present down trend, the 1st leg started around Sept 8-9, when the daily MAs went into a new bearish formation (10- below 20- below 30-day MA).  SPX rode the daily lower BB (bollinger band) down for about 2 weeks and attempted to bounce, but, the 30-day MA served as a strong resistance.  The first range started to form and the 10-day MA flattened. 

In the beginning of October, the support at 1200 was broken, and the 10-day MA curved lower, signalling a new leg down.  SPX again rode the daily lower BB down until 10/10 when 900 was tested.  We saw a bounce.  But, this time the market was weaker and could not even hold above the 10-day MA.  We saw the second range form and the 10-day MA again flattened last week. 

Now, that 900 level is broken and the 10-day MA is curving down again!  Today, the market tried to move up in the morning, but, could not get above SPX 890.  In the afternoon, we saw more selling, again.  SPX closed down 27.89 points at 848.92. 

Nasdaq is showing similar patterns:

Nasdaq fell 46.13 points to close at 1505.9.  It closed just above the 1500 level.  The 10-day MA and MACD curved lower.

We can see this “stepping-down” pattern in many individual stocks also:
FSLR

FSLR’s nearest support is at $100.

RIMM

RIMM’s nearest support is at $40.  After that $30 is the next strong support.

GOOG

GOOG’s nearest support is at $300, set back in 2005.

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance SitesSo, of course, the question is “How low is the market going to go?!?”.  Most people seem to have agreed that the market is oversold, but, people have been saying that for at least a couple of weeks!  And still, there are no buyers!  SPX’s next support level is at 800, which is pretty much the 2002 low.  With this new “curve down” in the 10-day MAs, the market is very vulnerable.  It will need a big, substantial rally to overturn the 10-day MA.  I think we’re going to see more downsides ahead of Fed’s announcement on interest rates (Wednesday).  Right now, there’s no need to jump into the market in a hurry, as the technicals are still very weak.  But, that’s perhaps what big, “sidelined” funds are looking at; and thus, we don’t see buyers!  Not yet!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 10/27 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Posted by optiondragon for myhappytrading.com

From briefing.com
oct-27-up.png
oct-27-up2.png

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Monday, October 27th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: According to a person familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs (GS) approached Citigroup (C) in September about the possibility of merging the firms’ operations. The sources said a “brief call” between Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Citi CEO Vikram Pandit didn’t result in further talks…The Wall Street Journal also reported that Jeffrey Immelt, General Electric’s (GE) CEO, said that the company intends to cut costs and favor manufacturing over financial services in its business mix…NEW YORK TIMES: The New York Times reported that JP Morgan’s (JPM) Highbridge Capital has laid off 35 employees as the hedge fund environment continues to be difficult…UK TIMES: Industry automobile experts said Ford (F) may have to sell Volvo (VOLVY) to raise cash. Sources close to Ford and BMW said there have been preliminary talks, the UK Times reported…BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg reported that Mistubishi UFJ (MTU) may seek to raise $10.7B to shore up its balance sheet…

Asia Markets Wrap-Up for Monday, October 27
Stocks in Asia continued their retreat on concerns that economic stimulus won’t arrest the worldwide slowdown. Among markets there only South Korea’s Kospi gained. New Zealand, Singapore and Malaysia were closed for holidays…JAPAN: The Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 486.18, or 6.4%, to 7,162.90, while the broader Topix index slid 59.65, or 7.4%, to 746.46. Both closing numbers were the lowest in over 20 years. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MTU) and Mizuho (MFG) each plunged 15%. Sumitomo Mitsui fell 11% to Y385,000. Aozora Bank declined 31% to Y66. Aiful dropped 14% to Y355. Orix Corp. (IX) slumped 17% to Y8,840. T&D Holdings sank 14% to Y3,030. Isuzu dived 22% to Y124. Fuji Heavy slipped 18% to Y262. Nintendo Co.(NTDOY) dropped 11% to Y24,400…CHINA: The CSI 300 Index was down 126.93, or 7.1%, to 1,654.67. Aluminum Corp. (ACH) lost 10% to 5.91 yuan. Datang also lost 10% to 5.25 yuan. China Construction Bank fell 5.1% to 3.69 yuan. Bank of Communications Co. slid 9.5% to 4.17 yuan. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. sank 9.3% to 11.01 yuan. China Shenhua Energy Co. tumbled 1.91 yuan, or 10%, to 17.15. Beijing Hualian Hypermarket Co. slumped 0.76 yuan, or 10%, to 6.80…AUSTRALIA: The S&P/ASX 200 Index was down 60.20, or 1.56%, to 3,809.20…AROUND ASIA: The Hang Seng Index lost 1,602.54, or 12.70%, to 11.015.84.

Technology Trader: Q4 will bring grim tidings - Barron’s
Columnist Eric Savitz says that Q3 numbers aren’t disastrous, but they aren’t all that impressive, either. As expected, the real issue is fourth-quarter guidance. Savitz says, Q3 was mediocre, Q4 is going to be bad, and no one knows what happens after that. Here are some key takeaways from the first batch of earnings news: The job cuts have only just begun. Xerox (XRX), eBay (EBAY), and Yahoo! (YHOO) all announced workforce reductions. And while Google (GOOG) didn’t cut headcount, they certainly aren’t hiring either. Microsoft (MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates recently said the jobless rate could hit 9%. The rally in the dollar is biting companies with significant non-U.S. revenue. The holiday selling season is shaping up to be the worst in years. Examples of this came from eBay and Amazon.com (AMZN) - both with disappointing guidance. Lastly,while many corporate balance sheets are flush with cash, many companies are postponing/avoiding buybacks, acquisitions, and investment in the business — instead look for execs to hold on to or hoard the cash to get through the credit crisis.

Technology Stocks: a glimmer of light in an otherwise bleak sector - Barron’s
Following Friday’s precipitous market drop, the Morgan Stanley tech index is down 45% this year, compared to the Standard & Poor’s 500’s 40% decline. While Friday’s market wasn’t good for growth companies like technology outfits, there are some pockets of opportunity that investors should pay close attention to. Thomas Laming, pres/CIO of TrendStar Advisors and portfolio manager of the AFBA Science & Technology Fund actually thinks tech will do well over the next few years, as the incumbents now have fewer start-ups challenging them. Laming and a number of other tech specialists emphasize that it’s best to look for well-run companies with strong balance sheets and outstanding technology to see them through several tough quarters. Laming’s pick: Varian Medical (VAR), target $60. Picks from the other tech specialists are as follows. Walter Price, managing director of Allianz Global Investors and co-manager of the Allianz RCM Technology Fund - picks: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), target $60; Amazon.com (AMZN), target $600; Qualcomm (QCOM), target $60; Energy conversion Devices (ENER), Price says many of these solar stocks will double or triple eventually. Dan Chung, CEO of Fred Alger Management - picks: Cognizant (CTSH), target $27 to $35 range; Apple (AAPL), target $150 to $180; Nintendo (NTDOY), target $55 to $65 range; Atheros Communications (ATHR), target $27 to $35 range. Lastly, Ray Conley, technology fund manager for Palo Alto Investors - pick: Ceragon Networks (CRNT), target $29 to $36 within two years. There will be big winners and losers coming out of this recession as well. It’s a good bet the companies mentioned above will be among the winners.

Weekly additions to the Investors Business Daily-100
The following are additions to the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of October 24: Petmed Express (PETS), Celgene Corp. (CELG), Clean Harbors (CLHB), Balchem (BCPC), Celcom (CEL), Genzyme (GENZ), Baxter International (BAX), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Amgen (AMGN), Enterprise Products (EPD), Covanta Holding corp (CVA), Burlington Northern (BNI), C H Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), C R BARD (BCR), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Partner Communications (PTNR), Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO), Capital Federated Finl (CFFN), Nicor (GAS), Avista (AVA), First Source Corp (SRCE), Cephalon (CEPH), Chesapeake Utilities (CPK), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Novartis (NVS), Northewest Bancorp (NWSB), ACE Lmt. (ACE), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), Ralcorp Holdings (RAH), Silgan Holdings (SLGN), DPL Inc (DPL), Nippon Tel (NTT), Comtech Telecomm (CMTL), Davita Inc (DVA), Duff & Phelps (DUF), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kinder Morgan (KMP ), Bank of the Ozarcks (OZRK ), Laboratory Corp. Of America (LH), Connecticut Water Svc (CTWS), Wasteconnections (WCN), First Financial Bancshares (FFIN), Kroger (KR), ICU Medical (ICUI),

Weekly subtractions from the Investor’s Business Daily-100
The following are subtractions from the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of October 24: American Public Education (APEI), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Quality Systems (QSII), Cash America (CSH), Websense (WBSN), Healthspring (HS), Wabtec (WAB), Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK), Stanley (SXE), Mantech International (MANT), NCI Inc (NCIT), FPIC Insurance Group (FPIC), Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS), Express Scripts (ESRX), Microsemi Corp (MSCC),Global Payments(GPN), Iris International (IRIS), Shanda Interactive (SNDA), Perrigo (PRGO), Westwood Holdings group (WHG), Grainger (GWW), Netease.com (NTES), UMB Financial (UMBF), MWI Veterinary (MWIV), Standard Parking Corp (STAN), FTI Consulting (FCN), Franklin Electric (FELE), SWS Group (SWS), Centene Corp (CNC), LHC Group (LHCG), Pioneer Southwest Energy (PSE), Hain Celestial Group (HAIN), Hanger Orthopedic Group (HGR), Medicines Company (MDCO), Exponent (EXPO), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Nike (NKE), Telecom De Sao Paulo (TSP), Boston Beer Company (SAM), Haemonetics (HAE), Calgon Carbon Corp. (CCC), Stifel Financial(SF). Novo Nordisc (NVO), Astrazeneca (AZN)

Treasury Department considers buying stakes in insurance companies-WSJ
The U.S. is considering taking equity stakes in insurance companies as the government’s bailout plan is being pulled in many directions, reports the Wall Street Journal. The worldwide credit crisis now means the U.S. is getting requests from not only insurance companies, but auto makers, state governments and transit agencies. For starters, MetLife (MET) and Prudential Financial (PRU) want to explore a sale of equity stakes to the government, say insiders.

Analysts Initiation Summary for Monday, October 27th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EnerSys (ENS) and Syniverse (SVR) were today’s noteworthy initiations: B. Riley initiated EnerSys with a Buy rating and $16.50 target. The firm believes the company’s core business is gaining strength due to product innovation and continued expansion into new commercial and renewable energy applications. Oppenheimer believes Syniverse is well positioned with rising mobile services penetration given its leverage to roaming and data. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating and $19 target…OTHER INITIATIONS: MAG Silver (MVG) and Northern Dynasty (NAK) were initiated with Speculative Buy ratings at Canaccord.

Analysts Downgrade Summary for Monday, October 27th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: U.S. Steel (X), Rick’s Cabaret (RICK) and Cache (CACH) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: UBS downgraded U.S. Steel to Sell from Buy and lowered its target to $30 from $60 citing deteriorating U.S. conditions and concerns about the company’s high fixed costs in a falling steel price environment. Merriman downgraded Rick’s Cabaret to Neutral from Buy to reflect the tough economic environment, potential weakness in Las Vegas and potential delays in acquisitions. B. Riley cut Cache to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $3.40 from $11 on concerns that comp declines have accelerated in October and will not get better for the holiday season…OTHER DOWNGRADES: China Unicom (CHU) was lowered to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan. Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) was cut to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analysts Upgrade Summary for Monday, October 27th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Franklin Resources (BEN), ASML Holding (ASML) and Seattle Genetics (SGEN) were today’s noteworthy upgrades: Keefe Bruyette upgraded Franklin Resources to Outperform from Market Perform and added shares to their Best Ideas List on valuation as they see an attractive risk/reward at current levels. UBS upgraded ASML Holding to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the company remains a market leader. Oppenheimer raised Seattle Genetics to Outperform from Perform on valuation following the recent weakness as they expect positive clinical news flow beginning in December…OTHER UPGRADES: PepsiCo (PEP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deustche Bank. Fortress (FIG) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell. Prudential (PUK) was lifted to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

U.S. equity futures continue to point to a lower open
U.S. equity futures continue to point to a lower open. The global economic slowdown concerns has CEOs of companies giving tepid guidance, if at all, given the cloudy outlook. The price of crude oil continues to fall and is another sign of weak demand in a slowing worldwide economy. The price of crude is down more than $2 to $61.95 a barrel and is at its lowest price since May 1997. In a sign that the credit thaw may be continuing the Libor rate was down slightly. Investors will receive data today on new home sales at 10:00 am.

Pre-Market Top 5 Losers for October 27 2008
The following stocks were the top percentage losers before the open on solid volume of at least 50K shares, trading at over $10. THOR (-14.1%), XOM (-2.3%), GS (-2.3%), MS (-2.2%), INTC (-1.6%).

Pre-Market Top 5 Gainers for October 27 2008
The following stocks were the top percentage gainers before the open on solid volume of at least 50K shares, trading at over $10. VZ +3.66%, RIMM +0.5%. Only two stocks met the criteria this morning.

Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, USO, UUP, XLF

from MyHappyTrading.com by HappyTrading! ™ Sign up for FREE membership!

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,
For the new week, what we should be looking for is a bullish crossover on the MACDs.  The MACDs (the red lines) are now very close to MACD signals (the green lines).  If the red lines cross over above the green lines, we’ll have a bullish crossover, which could be a “buy” signal for the market.  If this happens, I think we’ll also see the market indices go above their respective 10-day MAs.  Incredibly, VIX eked out a gain this week and closed above 70.  We’ll have to see if VIX would come down and close below 60 this week.”

On Monday, the market jumped higher and the major indices closed above their respective 10-day MAs.  VIX went below 60.  But, the market turned weaker on Tuesday, although Nasdaq was showing a bullish crossover in its MACD.  By the time Wednesday came around, the market resumed its selling mode, and VIX went back above 60.  On Thursday, the selling took a short respite; then, it continued on Friday to close the week in the red, yet again!  VIX closed at 79.13 and went above 80 on Friday.  The financials and techs were very weak.  Some beaten-down sectors in the commodities showed some attempts to bounce.  But, no rallies were able to hold.

The Dow ended the week down 473.27 points; SPX lost 63.23 points; Nasdaq fell 159.26 points.  A big chunk of the losses happened on Friday:
SPX

On Friday, SPX fell 31.34 points to close at 876.77, below the 900 level.  The MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq tumbled 51.88 points to close at 1552.03.  It went below 1500 intraday, and bounced back.  The MACD turned lower.

After last week, the market technicals got even weaker.  Both SPX and Nasdaq are on a new leg down, breaking the support at SPX 900 and Nasdaq 1650.  For the new week, among many important economic data, on Wednesday, we’ll find out whether the Fed will lower the interest rates even more; and, on Friday, we’ll get the GDP reportVIX is nearly 80 and still seems to have a lot of…

To read the rest of of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading “Premium Articles” by going to the Premium Services page.  If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 10/27/08.

Premarket Analysis for 10/24 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Posted by optiondragon for myhappytrading.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Friday, October 24th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: In a sign that its need for cash continues to expand, the Wall Street Journal reported that American International Group (AIG) borrowed $90.3B from the federal government as of Wednesday… The Wall Street Journal also reported the economy has begun to take its toll on transportation and shipping companies such as United Parcel Service (UPS), which are generally considered to be a barometer of economic health, as they are reporting sharply lower freight volumes…BUSINESSWEEK: Shares of Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) recently received a boost in share price when the FDA approved Rapaflo, the company’s alpha blocker for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia, BusinessWeek reported. Tim Chiang of FTN Midwest Securities says, “Rapaflo’s fast onset of action of six to eight hours and its clean side-effect profile could make it competitive.”…When the economy strengthens, solid rail stocks deliver real gains. BusinessWeek said one stock to look at is CSX (CSX), which operates a transcontinental rail network across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Shares of CSX have been beaten down to $43 a share on Oct. 10, from $59 in May. The signs looks promising as Q3 profits exceeded forecasts…Yum! Brands (YUM) appears to be one of the very few appetizing restaurant stocks, in these times of economic stress, according to BusinessWeek, because not only is it seeing higher sales and earnings but it’s also reinvigorating U.S. sales with healthier food. Rick Carucci, Yum’s CFO, says the drivers of Yum’s growth and profitability, are China and other foreign markets, which account for 50% of sales…BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg reported that General Electric (GE) and its General Electric Capital finance arm are planning to use the Federal Reserve’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility, a new short-term funding facility, when it starts next week. Under the facility, the Fed, looking to revive demand for commercial paper, will provide up to $540B in loans to money-market funds and will buy 90-day debt of top-rated companies

Asian Markets Wrap-Up for Friday, October 24
Asian stocks retreated as profits of several major companies declined and as earnings forecasts were lowered…JAPAN: The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 811.90, or 9.6%, to 7,649.08, while the broader Topix index lost 65.59, or 7.5%, to 806.11. Sony (SNE) fell 14% to Y1,972. Panasonic (PC) dived 12% to Y1,346. Canon (CAJ) was down 13% to Y2,665. Ricoh (RICOY) slumped 14% to Y876. Sharp (SHCAY) was also down 14% to 1,972. Nippon Sheet Glass Co. plunged 19% to Y291. Toyota (TM) lost 6.4% to Y3,200…CHINA: The CSI 300 Index retreated 53.18, or 2.9%, to 1,781.60, losing lost 2.8% for the week. Shenzhen Bank lost 4.1% to 12.03 yuan. Merchants Bank fell 10% to 12.14 yuan. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China was down 2.6% to 3.70 yuan. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., partially owned by Citigroup (C), dived 6% to 12.14 yuan. China Southern Airlines Co. (ZNH) slumped 4.7% to 3.28 yuan. Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Co. was down 0.17 yuan, or 2.5%, to 6.72. Jiangxi Copper Co. slipped 0.30 yuan, or 2.9%, to 10.01…AUSTRALIA: The S&P/ASX 200 Index tumbled -105.00, or -2.64%, to 3,869.40…AROUND ASIA: In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped -1,142.11, or -8.30%, to 12,618.38…In South Korea, the Kospi sank 110.96, or 11%, to 938.75, and was down 20.5% for the week…In India, the Sensitive Index lost 9%, and the State Bank of India tumbled 12% to 1,168 rupees. :

Stock futures at limit down until the markets open
Stock futures remain limit down until the market open at 9:30 am. Markets around the world slumped overnight on concerns of a global economic slowdown. OPEC announced a production cut of 1.5M barrels but oil prices are still down more than $5 to $62.90 a barrel. The flight to quality has the dollar at a two year high against the euro at $1.2590, and 30 year U.S. treasury yields are at their lowest levels in their history

Analysts Initiation Summary for Friday, October 24th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Repligen (RGEN), Gap (GPS) and NBTY (NTY) were today’s noteworthy initiations: Repligen was initiated with a Buy rating at Merriman. The firm thinks shares warrant a higher valuation given the company’s “late stage pipeline, strong partners, premier science and strong management.” Jefferies initiated Gap with a Hold rating and $13 target, citing upcoming difficult margin comps and the challenging macro environment. NBTY was assumed with a Neutral rating and $30 target at B. Riley, as the firm believes the acquisition of Leiner is risky…OTHER INITIATIONS: Rodman & Renshaw initiated China Direct (CDS) with an Outperform rating and $6 target. Zenith National (ZNT) was assumed with a Perform rating at Oppenheimer. Liberty Capital (LCAPA) was re-initiated at Barclays with an Equal Weight rating

Analysts Downgrade Summary for Friday, October 24th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Barclays (BCS), Discovery Holdings (DISCA) and Janus Capital (JNS) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: UBS cut Barclays to Neutral from Buy as they believe capital raises could negatively impact earnings and that the dividend is likely to be cut. JP Morgan downgraded Discovery Holdings to Underweight from Neutral based on valuation and the deteriorating economic outlook. Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Janus Capital to Underperform from Market Perform and lowered its target to $7 from $23 as they see further risk to the downside following the company’s weaker-than-expected results…OTHER DOWNGRADES: LKQ Corp (LKQX) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital. Affymetric (AFFX) was lowered to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank. RightNow Tech (RNOW) was downgraded at Baird to Neutral from Outperform

Analysts Upgrade Summary for Friday, October 24th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Colonial Bancgroup (CBN), Ericsson (ERIC), ASML Holdings (ASML) and Trimble Navigation (TRMB) were today’s noteworthy upgrades: Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Colonial Bancgroup to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent weakness and believes the company will be eligible to receive TARP funds. Morgan Stanley believes the company’s valuation adequately reflects risk to the loan portfolio; the firm raised shares to Equal Weight from Underweight. Merrill upgraded Ericsson and ASML Holdings to Buy from Underperform and believes their valuation reflects the worst-case for bad news. Oppenheimer upgraded Trimble Navigation to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the company’s long-term growth story is intact…OTHER UPGRADES: Celestica (CLS) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC. KeyCorp (KEY) was added to Goldman’s Conviction Buy List. Wachovia raised EastGroup Properties (EGP) to Outperform from Market Perform

Look for protection and brace yourself for more downside action. Once you see the bounce you’ll know it. The market looks to sell off for the next week possibly, BE DEFENSIVE! see you in the trading room..

Market Ends Up In Volatile Trading: SPX, Nasdaq, DO, RIG, NOV, SLB, DVN, HES, UPL, APA

from MyHappyTrading.com by HappyTrading! ™ Sign up for FREE membership!

The market was strong in the morning, but, soon faded into the red.  However, in the last hour, the market bounced and was able to close in the green.  Energy and oil stocks were strong today: DO +14.51%; RIG +4.27%; NOV +9.4%; SLB +4.62%; DVN +4.73%; HES +9.89%; APA +5.53%.

In the Trading Room, I commented today:
HappyTrading October 23, 2008 11:14 AM
VIX 80
if the intraday charts top out, I think there will be buyers.

HappyTrading October 23, 2008 11:16 AM
VIX
15-minute starting to show “toppiness”!

HappyTrading October 23, 2008 11:26 AM
eager buyers not waiting for VIX 80; 79.43 close enough?

HappyTrading October 23, 2008 11:33 AM
market
if it swings, I say we get the market indices back above support levels. That means SPX above 900.

It actually didn’t quite look like SPX was going to make it.  Then, in the last 15 minutes, SPX jumped more than 10 points to finish above 900.  The Dow jumped more than 400 points in the last hour from about 8250 to almost 8700!  Nasdaq was not quite as strong and finished down 11.84 points:

Tech sectors were mostly red.  USO (oil) bounced more than +3%.  XLE (energy) added +5.32%. OIH (oil services) jumped +5.12%.  GLD (gold) was still weak, down 1.48%.  UNG (natural gas) slipped another 4.99%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) managed a slight gain.

SPX

SPX added +11.33 points to close at 908.11.  It closed above the 900 level.  The 10-day MA and MACD flattened.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq lost 11.84 points to close at 1603.91.  It is still below 1650.  The MACD was slightly down.

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance SitesThe market was certainly volatile today.  VIX went almost to 80 and closed at 67.80; it is still high.  The encouraging thing was that the market made a big effort to close above the support level, although Nasdaq did not quite make it.  It is still uncertain if the bottom is in.  This support level at 900 for SPX seems to be barely hanging on.  The MACD is still having a hard time to establish a bullish crossover.  We’ll have to see how the market trades in the next few sessions.  Getting and staying above the 10-day MA will be very important.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 10/23 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Posted By Optiondragon for myhappytrading.com

From Briefing.com
oct-23-up.png
oct-23-up2.png

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Thursday, October 23rd
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is about to cut 10% of its 32,500 employees, the Wall Street Journal reported, as the credit crisis continues to take its toll on Goldman, and as the wave of downsizing affects Wall Street…The Wall Street Journal also reported that the U.S. government is considering an approximate $40B proposal to help stop foreclosures, one of the problems at the heart of the financial crisis. As well, the Treasury Department has a separate plan to employ a part of the $700B financial rescue aid to buy and renegotiate mortgages…BARRON’S: Exxon Mobil (XOM), with its cash-rich balance sheet, could easily rebound well ahead of its integrated energy peers, Barron’s Online said. With more than $30B of net cash on its balance sheet, Exxon can continue to fund its operations, pursue growth opportunities, increase its dividend and buy back stock when other companies are facing liquidity issues…

Bush administration set to tackle troubled mortgages-WSJ
The U.S. government is considering an approximate $40B proposal to help stop foreclosures, one of the problems at the heart of the financial crisis, reports the Wall Street Journal. As well, the Treasury Department has a separate plan to employ a part of the $700B financial rescue aid to buy and renegotiate mortgages. The research firm Moody’s Economy.com says that about 7.3M U.S. homeowners are expected to default on their mortgages between this year and 2010, and 4.3M of them are expected to lose their homes.

Bain Capital hard hit by credit crunch-WSJ
Some of private equity firm Bain Capital’s credit investment funds as losing up to 50%, and Sankaty Advisors, its credit affiliate, has lost between 40% and 50% in two fund that buy secure corporate loans, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Asian Markets Wrap-up for Thursday, October 23
Stocks fell sharply in a majority of Asian countries, led by commodity producers and exporters. JAPAN: The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 2.46%, to 8,460.98. Mazda (MZDAF) tumbled 11%, and Sony (SNE) dipped 6.3% after lowering its 2008 EPS earnings guidance by 38%. Oil producer Inpex sank 7.1% and Sumitomo Metal Mining (STMNF) declined 7.2%. Brokerage house Mitsubishi fell 5%. HONG KONG: The Hang Seng Index sank 3.55% to 13,760.49, a three year low. Energy company Cnooc (CEO) fell 8.1% and PetroChina (PTR), another oil producer, dropped 5.1%. Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) tumbled 8.8% and China Railway Construction Corp. (CWYCF) retreated 2.5%. HSBC (HBC) declined 3.1%. AROUND ASIA: South Korea’s Kospi index dove 7.5% as the nation copes with an intense financial crisis….China’s CSI 300 Index inched up 0.08%, while Taiwan’s Taiex dipped 2.72% and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite lost 3.08%…Taiwan’s export orders increased at a slower pace than expected last month.

Are banks fully prepared for credit card losses?-WSJ
History is not turning out to be an accurate gauge of how bad things can be. Take the mortgage crisis and structured debt products. Now banks face mounting credit card losses and what they expect might not be calculated high enough, according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard on the Street”. That’s because many credit card users have ongoing credit balances that help them to maintain their lifestyle. One result has been high charge off rates. As unemployment grows higher losses will follow.

Paulson says the U.S. could not save Lehman-NY Times
The government did not have the power to bail out Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ), Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told The New York Times. Paulson had previously told Lehman CEO Richard Fuld to seek a buyer for the firm, the Times reported. The Treasury Secretary said that he had asked other firms to buy some of Lehman’s toxic assets, and tried to convince a bank to buy Lehman.

U.S. equity futures weaken
U.S. equity futures weakened over the past hour following the Asian and European markets which were lower overnight. Corporate earnings continue to pour in with mixed results. Dow Chemical (DOW) reported earnings that were up 6.2%, but the company’s CEO said he sees a recession in 2009. Insurance giant Allstate (ALL) reported its quarter with larger than expected losses as a result of hurricanes Ike and Gustav. The company reported better than expected revenues but suspended its buyback program to conserve cash.

Mastercard fee increase adds even more pressure-Telegraph
Mastercard (MA) has increased its fees to 0.0235 from 0.005 and retailers say that its added another pressure to the sector. The fees follow higher overdraft rates and overall banking fees.

Hedge-fund sellers turn to a secondary market-WSJ
Hedge fund automatic “gates” or voluntary suspensions of redemptions limit how much of their assets can be redeemed in any quarter. So investors have been forced to seek other ways to get out, reports the Wall Street Journal. In lieu of the right industry contacts there’s the Hedgebay Trading Corp. which runs a secondary market of buyers and sellers of hedge fund stakes. Discounts can be as high as 50%.

How falling energy prices help big oil companies-WSJ
With lower oil prices the heat is off oil companies for now, and the benefits include a halt to spiraling costs, a backing off in the call for windfall-profit taxes, and it also makes it easier to work with countries and get at their untapped reserves, according to the Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, the major companies continue to make money from refining and marketing. They also are in a position to solidify their balance sheets, cut debt, and build cash. “You won’t see the obscene profitability, and the lower costs at the pump will help things,” says Frank Verrastro, director of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Google’s Chrome web browser losing market share-Silicon Valley Insider
It’s been out just three weeks but Google’s (GOOG) Chrome web browser is seeing its market share fall. Perhaps it’s too soon to call it a failure, but a key will be if computer makers like Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) agree to preinstall it. Meanwhile, down-loaders are heading back to Internet Explorer and Firefox.

Analysts Upgrade Summary for Thursday, October 23rd
MOST NOTEWORTHY: S&T Bancorp (STBA), GSI Commerce (GSIC), DHT Maritime (DHT) and General Maritime (GMR) were today’s noteworthy upgrades: B. Riley upgraded S&T Bancorp to Buy from Neutral and lowered its target to $35 from $38 on valuation, as they believe the sell-off post-Q3 results is overdone. Jefferies upgraded GSI Commerce to Buy from Hold on valuation after Q4 revenue guidance was reset lower. The firm lowered their target to $13 from $18. JP Morgan upgraded shares of DHT Maritime and General Maritime to Overweight from Neutral on the company’s valuation and dividend stability…OTHER UPGRADES: Whole Foods (WFMI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS. Archer Daniels (ADM) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays. AutoZone (AZO) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.

Analysts Downgrade Summary for Thursday, October 23rd
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dover Downs (DDE), Prudential (PUK) and Overseas Shipholding (OSG) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: Jefferies downgraded shares of Dover Downs to Underperform from Buy on the increasing threat of gaming being legalized in Maryland after a Washington Post poll showed that 62% of Maryland voters expressed support of the November ballot measure to legalize slot machines. The firm lowered their target to $5.50 from $9. HSBC cut Prudential to Neutral from Overweight as they believe capital has eroded and debt refinancing is increasingly difficult. JP Morgan downgraded shares of Overseas Shipholding to Neutral from Overweight on lower spot rate forecasts and the company’s high leverage…OTHER DOWNGRADES: Freeport McMoRan (FCX) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman. Logitech (LOGI) was lowered to Hold from Buy at Citigroup and to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse. Covance (CVD) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.

Analysts Initiation Summary for Thursday, October 23rd
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Opnext (OPXT), Church & Dwight (CHD) and Take-Two (TTWO) were today’s noteworthy initiations: B. Riley believes Opnext has a solid balance sheet and is positioned in one of the fastest-growing segments of the optical components market. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $6.60 target. Church & Dwight was initiated with a Hold rating a $60 target at Jefferies. The firm recommends waiting for a better entry point. Take-Two was initiated with a Neutral rating and $14 target at Banc of America Banc of America, citing tough comps going forward and the potential loss of key employees…OTHER INITIATIONS: Oppenheimer initiated Urban Outfitters (URBN) and American Eagle (AEO) with Outperform ratings and a $27 target and $14 target, respectively. Merrill Lynch