Posted By optiondragon for myhappytrading.com
From Briefing.com


Periodicals Wrap-Up for Wednesday, October 29th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: According to people familiar with the talks, the Wall Street Journal reported that GMAC LLC is looking to become a bank holding company. This move would give the lender, co-owned by General Motors (GM) and Cerberus Capital, access to the government’s $700B financial rescue plan…The Wall Street Journal also reported that Motorola’s (MOT) Sanjay Jha, the head of its mobile division and co-CEO of the company, is looking to focus on Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system as the software platform for its showcase phones, sources said. The sources believe Jha will reveal his plans as early as Thursday when the company reports earnings; the people familiar with the situation believe Jha’s plans will include thousands of layoffs…FINANCIAL TIMES: The Financial Times reported that General Motors and Cerberus Capital are looking to finalize a deal for the automaker to acquire its stake in Chrysler before the U.S. election next week…BARRON’S ONLINE: Potash Corp. (POT), which has fallen 71% since hitting an all-time high of more than $241 in June, may be getting its second wind, according to Barron’s Online. Even with more moderate expectations for fertilizer prices and volume sales, the company should continue to post double-digit earnings growth over the next few years. While, this may not be the bottom for the stock, but the dramatic pullback indicates there’s more reward than risk at this level…IHT: The International Herald Tribune reported that due to the U.S. financial crisis, BHP Billiton (BHP) is set to close its Suriname operations by 2010. About 1,100 workers will be laid off…
Asian Markets Wrap-Up for Wednesday, October 29
Stocks in Asia advanced as Japan was said to be considering a rate cut and China was considering moves to help equities…JAPAN: The Nikkei rose 589.98, or 7.7%, to 8,211.90, while the broader Topix index increased 46.29, or 5.9%, to 830.32. Honda (HMC) jumped 18% to Y2,440. Toyota (TM) was up 10% to Y3,500. Nissan Motor (NSANY) added 11% to Y471. Panasonic (PC) increased 4.6% to Y1,471. Promise surged 15% to Y1,526. Nintendo Co. (NTDOY) was up 12% to Y27,600. Daikin Industries leapt 17% to Y2,050. Canon (CAJ) gained 6.9% to Y2,730…CHINA: The CSI 300 Index retreated 47.60, or 2.8%, to 1,658.22. Guangxi Liugong lost 10% to 10.13 yuan. Haitong Securities was down 7.8% to 19.46 yuan. Citic Securities Co. fell 7.4% to 17.68 yuan. Guoyuan Securities Co. was down 9% to 12.16 yuan. Air China slid 0.30 yuan, or 7.5%, to 3.69. China State Shipbuilding Co. was up 1.02 yuan, or 3.1%, to 33.79…AUSTRALIA: The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 51 points, or 1.3%, to 3,845.60. BHP Billiton (BHP) added 3.7% to A$26.30. Rio Tinto (RTP) increased 3.7% to A$70.78. Macquarie climbed 3.6% to A$28.50. Commonwealth Bank added 2.3% to A$40.30. Newcrest Mining (NCMGY) was up A$1.15 cents, or 3.1%, to A$38.25. Woodside Petroleum (WOPEY) was up A$1.15, or 3.1%, to A$38.25…AROUND ASIA: In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index advanced 105.78, or 0.84%, to 12,702.07.
Potash-POT is “fertile” ground for long-term investors - Barron’s Online
Potash Corp. (POT), which has fallen 71% since hitting an all-time high of more than $241 in June, may be getting its second wind. Potash Corp. is backed by powerful and sustainable fundamentals. As the world’s population continues to grow, rising middle classes in emerging markets like China and India are demanding more nutritious diets. And three of Potash’s fertilizers are increasingly important to farmers seeking to increase the yield and quality of soybeans, corn and other crops that they grow. Ultimately, farmers will need to replenish soil or risk lower crop yields. A subsequent crop shortage would boost crop prices, increase profits and spur demand for fertilizers. Potash Corp. posted its best quarter ever for the third quarter last Thursday. Even with more moderate expectations for fertilizer prices and volume sales, the company should continue to post double-digit earnings growth over the next few years. While, this may not be the bottom for the stock, but the dramatic pullback indicates there’s more reward than risk at this level.
Deutsche Bank’s Q3 results may indicate a need to raise capital-FT
Though Deutsche Bank (DB) has resisted seeking equity from investors and insists its balance sheet is strong, many analysts believe the bank’s asset quality and banking activities “must have suffered further amid weeks” of turmoil in the markets. Additionally, they believe the bank may need to raise fresh capital eventually because it likely cannot remain the “only odd one out” — the issue, they believe, is not if they will need to raise capital, but how much.
Ackman could lobby Target to sell real estate holdings-NY Post
According to sources, Pershing Square Capital shareholder activist Bill Ackman may look to push Target (TGT) to sell its holdings in real estate to a newly created subsidiary. Under the reported plan, Ackman, who pushed Target to sell nearly half its credit card business to JP Morgan (JPM), would look for the subsidiary to lease the stores back to Target, giving the retailer a lot of cash on its balance sheet. With a lot of cash, Target could possibly buy back its shares at bargain prices. Yesterday, Target said it has “serious concerns” about Ackman’s ideas.
Surge in Volkswagen shares slams hedge funds-WSJ
Over the last two days shares of Volkswagen (VLKAY) have soared 348% as Porsche increased their stake. For hedge funds who bet on the stock’s decline the losses from their bets are expected to be in the billions, reports the Wall Street Journal
First the mortgage crisis, now the credit card crisis?-NY Times
According to the New York Times, the next “crisis” on the way is the credit card crisis. As lenders are cutting credit card offers and high credit lines due to the state of the economy, the banking industry is again threatened with another wave of losses. Analysts believe the industry, which includes MasterCard (MA), Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) stands to lose “at least another $55B” over the next year and a half plus further layoffs, and credit card net charge-offs could exceed historical norms, Citigroup (C) CFO Gary Crittenden believes. To stave off a crisis, lenders such as American Express, Target (TGT) and Bank of America (BAC) have tighened the standards for applications and are cutting risky customers; Capital One (COF) has shut down inactive accounts.
Biotech firms shaken by financial crisis-WSJ
The biotech industry is in turmoil. “The whole way of doing business is gone, at least temporarily. Companies that don’t have a lot of cash or assets to generate cash” are in trouble, says George A. Scangos, CEO of Exelixis (EXEL), a California biotech firm. Some are expected to file for bankruptcy, cut employees, or sell to larger companies. At risk, reports the Wall Street Journal, is a slowdown in developing new medicines. And that wouldn’t be good news for pharamceutical companies.
U.S. equity futures now point to a higher open
U.S. equity futures are now pointing to a higher open as they have been slowly rising throughout the morning. Corporate earnings continue to flow in with Proctor & Gamble (PG) the latest Dow component to report. The company reported better than expected earnings and revenue, and provided good guidance going forward. The company also said it’s continuing to access the credit markets without any issues, and that they have no plans to use the government’s commercial paper facility. The shares of P&G are up about .75% this morning in premarket trading at $63.60 per share. The durable goods orders number was reported at an increase of .8% versus an expected decline of -1.1%. If you take out transportation items it was reported as a decline of -1.1% versus an expected decline of -1.5%.
Analysts Initiation Summary for Wednesday, October 29th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apollo Investment (AINV) and Pharmasset (VRUS) were today’s noteworthy initiations: Merrill initiated Apollo Investment with a Buy rating and $12 target. The firm is positive on the company’s low debt levels vs. other business development companies. Pharmasset (VRUS) was assumed with an Outperform rating at Cowen. The firm is positive on Pharmasset�s valuation based on prospects for its HCV nucleoside polymerase inhibitor, R7128…OTHER INITIATIONS: Morgan Stanley initiated NYSE Euronext (NYX) with an Underweight rating and $21 target and Nasdaq (NDAQ) with an Equal Weight rating. Research in Motion (RIMM) was started at BMO Capital with a Market Perform rating.
Analysts Downgrade Summary for Wednesday, October 29th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dominion Resources (D), Zymogenetics (ZGEN) and Aeropostale (ARO) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: Jefferies downgraded shares of Dominion Resources to Underperform from Hold and lowered its target to $30 from $43.50 based on the company’s growing need to issue equity as they believe Dominion will face a growing funding gap from reduced asset sales and lower cash contributions from its commodity businesses. Piper cut Zymogenetics to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $4 from $14 to reflect the slower-than-expected launch of RecoThrom. Friedman Billings downgraded Aeropostale to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe macro challenges and tougher compares will limit upside. The firm recommends selling into strength and lowered their target to $28 from $32…OTHER DOWNGRADES: Goldman cut Altera (ALTR) to Sell from Neutral at Xilinx (XLNX) to Neutral from Buy. Andersons (ANDE) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens. LodgeNet (LNET) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley.
Analysts Upgrade Summary for Wednesday, October 29th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Constellation Energy (CEG), Denny’s Corp (DENN) and Daimler AG (DAI) were today’s noteworthy upgrades: Jefferies upgraded shares of Constellation Energy to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $26.50 from $25 on valuation as they believe MidAmerican Energy will consummate the merger. The firm points out shares are trading at a 14% discount to the $26.50 offer. Merriman upgraded Denny’s Corp to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company’s restructuring and successful menu and food cost management should stabilize operating margins. Daimler was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the stock is oversold at current levels…OTHER UPGRADES: Taiwan Semi (TSM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC. Veolia Environnement (VE) was lifted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse. Goldman raised PMC Sierra (PMCS) to Buy from Neutral.
S&P Sectors that may Benefit from a Falling Dollar
Ahead of the FOMC decision on rates, the US Dollar is down sharply against its basket this morning. As a result commodity prices are rising. As long as the decline in the dollar persists this is likely to be a benefit to Energy and Materials which have been pushed down hard in recent weeks as the dollar has screamed to the upside off its lows. The ETFs that track these sectors, the S&P Select Materials SPDR (XLB) and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) may benefit. Both moved up to the top of their daily bearish price channels yesterday. The pivots for the XLB are at $25.575 (pivot high) and $22.785 (pivot low). For the XLE the pivots are at $50.105 (pivot high) and $44.075 (pivot low). It is generally believed to be bullish when price breaks out above the pivot high or bearish when price breaks down below the pivot low.
Amazon.com-AMZN: Levels to Watch as the ‘O’ Effect Fades
The stock has been on an incredible tear to the upside following earnings when the shares hit the 52-week low at the $43 area. Although guidance was abysmal the stock benefited from positive mention and promotion by Oprah concerning the Kindle product. It is likely that at some point the positive buzz from this will fade and the harsher reality of a tough Christmas will return to trader mindsets. There was a Barron’s piece reminding traders of these conditions yesterday (see note here). Resistance is at $57.11, the 21 day moving average and the proxy for the primary downtrend resistance line. Support levels to watch as potential downside objectives are at $55.13, $54.31, $53.44, $52.56, $51.37, $50.40, $49.63, $48.80, $47.86, $47.00, $46.28, $45.15.
S&P 500-SPX: Bullish Flag on 5-Minute Futures Chart
There is a bullish flag in progress on the 5-minute futures chart that has upside potential to 990. The flag would no long be valid on a breakdown below 925. This is the futures, not the cash
US Steel-X shares compelling at current levels, says Soleil
Soleil believes US Steel shares are compelling following the company’s “strong” Q3 results and maintains a Buy rating on the stock.
Life Insurance: Do not expect Treasury funding to succeed, says Barclays
Barclays does not believe the Life Insurance industry will be successful in securing new preferred-stock funding from the Treasury under the Capital Repurchase Program. Specifically, the firm does not expect HIG, PRU or MET to secure funding.
Semiconductor industry growth rates lowered at Banc of America
Banc of America now expects Semiconductor industry sales to contract 5% in 2009 versus their prior expectation of up 7% entering the reporting season. The firm lowered their estimates for the group but believes the stocks are already discounting much of the bad news. Banc of America’s top picks in the group are Atheros (ATHR), Broadcom (BRCM), Altera (ALTR), Xilinx (XLNX) and Intel (INTC).
Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer said a barometer to predict huge one-day rallies like the 889-point one on Tuesday, is by using Apple (AAPL). Cramer said Apple is the true litmus test for the market. Apple has the best fundamentals, the best balance sheet and the best growth of just about any company, said Cramer. That’s why if Apple’s stock price is falling, the markets are clearly headed lower. Next, Cramer said investors looking for stocks that will rally in an Obama presidency need look no further than AeroVironment (AVAV), Cramer told his viewers. Cramer talked with chairman and CEO Tim Conver. Cramer recommended the stock before its IPO on Jan. 7, 2007, and again on March 8, 2007 at $21.43 a share. Since then, the stock has risen 40%, even in a bear market. Conver also said that AeroVironment has huge growth opportunities because it sells products not only to the U.S. military but also to many NATO allies. Cramer is still a fan of the company’s clean balance sheet, no debt and growth opportunities. In a turbulent market, Cramer said investors need to consider stocks with limited downside risk that trade at or near their cash value. That’s why he’s recommending women’s clothing retailer Bebe Stores (BEBE) as a great valuation play. Cramer said a turnaround may now be upon us, with the company’s inventory turnover improving and guidance finally lowered to a level that Bebe can beat. “The bad news is already in the stock,” he said. Cramer said he also likes BeBe’s cash position, with $4 per share currently on the books and the share repurchase plan. MAD MAIL: ATVI - Cramer does not expect a strong Christmas and would still “say away”. During a recession, Cramer said he is a buyer of AVP, but a seller of TM, and ACS. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) AFAM; CAT; BAC; WFC; BBT; GS. (Bearish) C.
Fast Money Postion recap: Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (WMT), (SDS), (UUP), (MCD); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (F), (MER), (TSO), (RIO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EEM); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (BBT), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO)
Fed Day today and what a rally out of nowhere yesterday! Keeping nimble into the Fed decision then analyzing. The market moved on the Yen dropping and short covering going beserk. FXY and the dollar could be leading indicators here in the short term. Will it be a 25, 50, or 75 basis point cut? We will know shortly. How the market will ultimately react to the cut and the accompany statement will be the final say. Art Cashin thinks the move up is very promising and could be an intermediate bottom that could last through the year. Buckle your seatbelts! See you in the trading room!