Wang's Happy Trading

Yesterday’s rally on global central banks’ coordinated action to inject more liquidity into global financial systems gave global markets a strong support that they needed.  The US market indices popped more than +4% (actually a little less than Europe and Asia, which went up more than +5%).  Today, the market stalled again, ahead of the unemployment report tomorrow.

We locked in more profits from our published trades:

• 11:49 | HappyTrading IBM ($189.94) Sold to Close 12C190 Dec 190 calls, at $3.30 +74%
• 11:44 | HappyTrading SNDK ($49.75) Sold to Close 12C48 Dec 48 calls, at $2.88 +29%
• 10:32 | HappyTrading GLD ($170.00) Sold to Close 12C168 Dec 168 calls, at $4.20 +42%

From the Ecstatic Plays, we scored a +157% overnight gain on GOOG weekly calls:

• December 01, 2011
• 06:45 | Ecstatic Plays GOOG ($605.00) Sold to Close 1202C600 Dec 600 calls, at $7.20 +157%

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Holiday stocks did not perform too well today.  Retailers were on the weak side:  SHLD -4.72%, M -0.53%, TGT -1.04%, DECK -1.84%.  LULU was down 11% intraday on weak sales, but, managed to recover some of the loss to close down just 5%.  Online shopping seems to be doing ok.  AAPL added +1.5% and AMZN gained +2.52%.  However, AAPL and AMZN really didn’t participate in yesterday’s big rally.  FDX and UPS also pulled back a bit today.  Credit card stocks continued to rock higher:  MA added another $6.4 (up a whopping $35 so far this week!); V added +0.81%

The Dow was down 25.65 points; SPX slid 2.38 points; Nasdaq added +5.86 points:

Things were pretty flat.  No sector was up or down more than 1%.  XLE (energy) and XME (metals and mining) were down.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) also pulled back.  Technology sectors were slightly up.

SPX

SPX slid 2.38 points to close at 1244.58.  Its daily MAs flattened and the MACD went higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq added +5.86 points to close at 2626.2 (cool number!).  It closed at its 30-day MA.  The MACD went up.

The market has basically rallied 3 days straight and it took a pause today ahead of the unemployment report tomorrow.  We may need to see a couple of more days of consolidation even if the jobs report is benign to good tomorrow.  It’ll take a surprisingly strong positive jobs number to push this market higher tomorrow.  We’ve taken a lot of money off the table and are now back to mostly cash.  We’ll see if the market can work off some of this week’s fast-rising steam while holding its altitude.  If the market stays strong, watch the above-mentioned holiday stocks!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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Market suffered another down week last week.  But, we used the selling to our advantage and had a great week and took Friday off to have a nice, long Thanksgiving weekend.

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, we discussed:

"For the new week, the market starts in a very vulnerable position.  Immediate support for SPX is at 1200, but we could see 1180 tested on a quick, sharp fall.  Not only will the market be worrying over Europe, the US Congress may create even more pull on the downside as it tries to reach a deal for the budget.  Financials once again look weak.  Oil has had an impressive run, but, is starting to appear toppy."

Things pretty much happened as forecasted, once again.  On Monday morning, the market sank below SPX 1200 within the first 30 minutes and it was downhill from there.  We locked in intraday profits with +132% gain on SINA puts.  On Tuesday, the market traded flat, testing SPX 1180.  I warned that if SPX 1180 does that hold, we were going to see another leg down.  On Wednesday, within the first 30 minutes of trading, the market dropped below SPX 1180, and the selloff continued.  We locked in more gains to prepare for the long weekend for Thanksgiving.  Friday was a half-day, and, the market was basically flat.

For the week, the Dow was down 564.38 points; SPX dropped 56.98 points; Nasdaq tumbled 130.99 points.  Both gold and oil traded lower.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher on new developments in Europe.  Here’s where the US market closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slid 3.12 points to close at 1158.67.  Its daily MAs and MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 18.57 points to close at 2441.51, below 2450.  Its daily MAs and MACD curved down.

Both SPX and Nasdaq too sharp falls and VIX rose to mid-30s again.  For the new week…

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After yesterday’s sharp fall, and some very lucrative, fast trades on the downside, the market takes some time today to breathe.  As we discussed in this week’s Market Forecast, the market dropped in the morning, coming close to testing 1180.  However, in the Trading Room, I was looking for the market to bounce a bit:

November 22, 2011 8:18 AM
… there are big buyers wanting to get into this market.

Even though the market did bounce a bit, we still found nice trades on the downside, and on the upside.  In the Trading Room, we called out longside opportunities on BIIB and IOC:
November 22, 2011 7:28 AM
BIIB
getting a bounce…

November 22, 2011 7:30 AM
IOC
huge move since earnings

BIIB closed the day up +5.2% and IOC added +10.23%!!

We also traded quick downside trades on NFLX and GMCR:
November 22, 2011 7:31 AM
NFLX
still weak…

November 22, 2011 7:33 AM
GMCR
now dropping…

November 22, 2011 8:14 AM
GMCR
quick scalp on 52.5 puts from $2.9 to $4.05 in 45 minutes…

For our Trade Alerts, we picked up more profits, also both calls and puts.  Financials were very weak today, as the Fed decided to make further stress test on the big banks.  On the longside, it seems like fund managers are starting to shop for the holidays, pushing AAPL up +2%.  AMZN also reversed its morning weakness and gained $3:

• November 22, 2011
• 12:29 | HappyTrading GS ($89.70) Sold to Close 1125P90 Nov 90 puts, at $1.80 +3%
• 11:49 | HappyTrading AAPL ($376.60) Sold to Close 1125C375 Nov 375 calls, at $4.15 +48%
• 10:34 | HappyTrading AAPL ($376.15) Sold to Close 1125C375 Nov 375 calls, at $3.70 +32%
• 08:29 | HappyTrading GS ($89.40) Sold to Close 1125P90 Nov 90 puts, at $2.30 +28%

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The Dow was down 53.59 points; SPX fell 4.94 points; Nasdaq slid 1.86 points:

BTK (biotech) added +1.14%.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) bounced.  USO (oil) also closed in the green.  OIH (oil services) and XLE (energy), however, were still weak.  XLF (financials) came back down to test $12.

SPX

SPX slid 4.94 points to close at 1188.04.  Its daily MAs and MACD curved down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 1.86 points to close at 2521.28.  Its daily MAs and MACD were lower.

VIX closed down today, even though the market indices were also slightly lower.  Nevertheless, the market is still very weak, and very close to breaking down another leg.  If SPX 1180 does not hold, we could easily see 1140 soon.  The weakness in financials and industrials does not give buyers to jump back in and stay in.  Tonight and tomorrow early morning, we’ll hear some important economic data from China and Europe.  We’ll have to see how the global financial markets react.  We did some more quick trades today and went back into cash by the end of the day.  Remember the market is on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and only open until 1pm EST on Friday.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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It was another wild week on the market.  We carefully rode the tides that rose and fall, and made some very good trades, including an intraday +126% gain on GMCR calls and an overnight +103% profit on WYNN puts.  Here are the closed trades for the week:

• 09:47 | HappyTrading FAS ($58.80) Sold to Close 11060 Nov 60 put, at $2.63 +35%
• 09:46 | HappyTrading WYNN ($119.30) Sold to Close 11P125 Nov 125 put, at $5.70 +103%
• 09:38 | HappyTrading GS ($96.80) Sold to Close 11P100 Nov 100 put, at $3.65 +14%
• 07:54 | HappyTrading GS ($98.10) Sold to Close 11P100 Nov 100 put, at $2.74 -9%
• 07:46 | HappyTrading JOYG ($89.50) Sold to Close 11C87.5 Nov 88 calls, at $3.00 -30%
• 06:44 | HappyTrading AAPL ($390.50) Sold to Close 11C390 Nov 390 calls, at $3.90 +39%
• 12:08 | HappyTrading FFIV ($113.55) Sold to Close 11C110 Nov 110 calls, at $4.25 +63%
• 12:02 | HappyTrading GMCR ($47.50) Sold to Close 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $3.25 +126%
• 11:13 | HappyTrading GMCR ($46.75) Sold to Close 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $2.65 +84%
• 06:56 | HappyTrading GMCR ($44.00) Sold to Close 11P40 Nov 40 put, at $0.37 -70%
• 06:54 | HappyTrading AAPL ($383.00) Sold to Close 110375 Nov 375 calls, at $1.66 -57%
• 09:19 | HappyTrading SLV ($33.32) Sold to Close 11C33 Nov 33 calls, at $0.82 -49%
• 09:15 | HappyTrading GLD ($173.20) Sold to Close 11C172 Nov 172 calls, at $2.56 +0%
• 09:03 | HappyTrading FFIV ($111.50) Sold to Close 11C110 Nov 110 calls, at $3.30 +27%
• 09:00 | HappyTrading AMZN ($221.30) Sold to Close 11C220 Nov 220 calls, at $4.70 +18%
• 07:31 | HappyTrading AMZN ($220.50) Sold to Close 11C220 Nov 220 calls, at $4.30 +2%

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In my Market Forecast last weekend, I wrote:
"For the new week, the market appears to be in a neutral stance.  To break out, SPX will have to push for 1300 while Nasdaq will need to top 2750.  On the downside SPX first support seems to be between 1225 and 1230.  Nasdaq’s support is at 2600."

On Monday and Tuesday, the market was basically treading water, going nowhere, but, we did pick up a good trade on GMCR as it bounced and squeezed the shorts.  Wednesday afternoon, during the last hour of trading, saw the market sold off quickly.  But, we had already closed out all of our longside trades and were ready to pick on new trades on the downside.  On Thursday, the market dropped even more, and our downside trades paid off handsomely.  We even scored a +164% trade in a little more than 1 our.  Friday, as discussed on Thursday night, saw some bounces, and the market closed mixed and slightly lower.

For the week, the Dow was down 357.52 points; SPX fell 48.2 points; Nasdaq dropped 106.25 points.  Gold fell sharply, closing around $1720/ounce.  Oil slid back to below $98/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly lower.  Let’s see how the US market looked after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slid 0.48 points to close at 1215.65.  Its daily MAs and MACD went down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 15.49 points to close at 2572.5.  Its 10-day MA and MACD curved lower.

Both SPX and Nasdaq fell below their respectively daily MAs.  VIX came down from Thursday’s high of nearly 36.5, but, still closed at 32.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 11/21/11.

After yesterday’s slide, the market manages to bounce a bit.  Most sectors were slightly up, led by the tech stocks.  IBM has been strong the past couple of days after Buffett announcing buying 5% of the company.  IBM shares jumped to a new all-time high on Monday morning, hitting above $190.  However, it was not able to hang on to the gain and ended the day in the red, pulled lower by the rest of the market.  Today, buyers came back and drove IBM higher, trying to regain Monday morning’s high.  IBM was up +0.75% today. 

GMCR, a badly beaten stock of late, jumped +13% today.  We were actually on the wrong side of the trade from yesterday, thinking that it could break down further.  We scrambled to get out the puts this morning.  But, we jumped right away to the other side and bought calls, which gave us more than a double, intraday, and more than made up for the loss on the puts:

• November 15, 2011
• 12:02 | HappyTrading GMCR ($47.50) Sold to Close 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $3.25 +126%
• 11:13 | HappyTrading GMCR ($46.75) Sold to Close 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $2.65 +84%
• 07:32 | HappyTrading GMCR ($44.70) Bought to Open 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $1.44
• 06:56 | HappyTrading GMCR ($44.00) Sold to Close 11P40 Nov 40 put, at $0.37 -70%

AAPL has also been very weak lately, but, it bounced +2.52% today.  After the market, AAPL announced new additions to its board with Art Levinson as chairman, and adding Disney’s Chief Executive Officer Robert Iger as a director.  Among other leading stocks were CLF +4.79%, FFIV +1.8%, APKT +4.35%.

After the market, DELL traded slightly lower with an in-line quarterly report while ADSK added +2%, beating its estimates.

The Dow was up +17.18 points; SPX added +6.03 points; Nasdaq gained +28.98 points:

XME (metals and mining) added +1.54%.  XLE (energy) was flat, but, USO (oil) went up +1.5%.  XLF (financials) was slightly up.  SOXX (semiconductors) gained +1.47%.

SPX

SPX added +6.03 points to close at 1257.81.  It barely closed above its MAs, but, the MACD slid.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +28.98 points to close at 2686.2.  Its daily MAs and MACD went up.

The market indices seem to be still stuck in the recent range.  VIX closed above 31, demonstrating that the market is still cautious.  The boarder market has been treading water, swinging back and forth.  We are still trading lightly and keeping lots of cash until the market gives clearer signals.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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