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Improving Job Market, Cheering for the Holidays? SPX, Nasdaq, AKAM, POT, MOS, CF, AKAM, CTXS, ALTR, VMW, DECK, NKE, BBBY, TIBX

December 22, 2011 – 4:39 pm

This morning, GDP was revised down to 1.8% from 2.0% for Q3.  but, the jobless claims fell by 4,000 to the lowest level since April 2008.  That seemed to be enough to keep investors interested.  The market pushed higher from Tuesday’s big jump. 

Some tech stocks bounced from yesterday’s slump, after ORCL’s disappointing quarter.  AKAM was up +18.6% after announcing an all-cash deal to aquire Cotendo for $268 million.  CTXS jumped nearly +5%, almost recovering all of yesterday’s loss.  ALTR broke out with a +6.4% rise.  VMW bounced +5.6% after being dragged lower by ORCL yesterday.  TIBX popped +8% after delivering a positive quarter and guidance.  Agriculture sector got a boost from an upgrade to POT.  POT added +6%; MOS gained +3.32%; CF climbed +3.26%.

Stocks weren’t all on the positive side though.  DECK dove 5.71%.  NKE dropped 1.59%, even after giving a strong quarterly report after the close on Tuesday.  BBBY reported a decent quarter, but, its forecast was below consensus; its shares fell 6.27%.

The Dow was up +61.91 points; SPX added +10.28 points; Nasdaq gained +21.48 points:

GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) slipped again.  SOXX (semiconductors) bounced +3.49%.  XLF (financials) was up +2.07%, closing just above $13.  XME (metals and mining) advanced +1.8%.  MOO (agriculture) climbed +1.2%.

SPX

SPX added +10.28 points to clsoe at 1254.  Its daily MAs and MACD glided up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +21.48 points to close at 2599.45.  It closed above its daily MAs.  The MACD was up slightly.

This market is trying very hard to climb back to the positive territory for the year.  VIX barely closed above 21; it is at its lowest level since August.  But, with ORCL’s bad quarter and INTC’s earlier warning, can the tech stocks bounce higher?  CRM has sunk all the way to $100, from $160 just this summer.  Even FFIV, with a strong Q3, seems to be stuck in a range.  The "Big Blue" IBM also pulled back from the recent all-time high of $195.  AMZN has fallen from $245 to now barely $180.  GOOG has been stuck in a tight $20 range (about $615 to $635) for 3 weeks now.  AAPL, with targets as high as $700, is just regaining the $400 level this week.

Commodity sectors have been stuck in a range as well.  Energy and metals have been very weak.  Agriculture stocks, though, seem to have found a bottom.

Tomorrow is Friday and Monday is a market holiday for Christmas.  We might not see a whole lot happening tomorrow. Take it easy and keep lots of cash.

I wish you and your loved ones a very merry Christmas!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

A Holiday Rally? Can It Be? SPX, Nasdaq, SPG, TOL, KBH, ONXX, CELG, MDVN, CF, POT, MOS, ORCL, NKE, AAPL, CRM, VMW

December 20, 2011 – 5:23 pm

This morning, Gemany reported strong business sentiment and a Spanish treasury bill auction produced better-than-expected results.  In addition, the US new housing starts jumped in November.  The market popped higher at open and continued higher until the close.  It was a broad-base rally with all major sectors up more than +3%!

Besides major sectors, housing stocks continued to be strong:  SPG +3.26%, TOL +6.44%, KBH +10.1%.  Biotechs gained further momentum:  MDVN +4.41%, ONXX +4.03%, CELG +2.86%.  Even fertilizers bounced:  CF +6.21%, POT +4.17%, MOS +5.38%.

Among the tech stocks, AAPL stood out as one of the leaders.  In the Trading Room, I wrote early in the morning that AAPL should go above $390 soon:

December 20, 2011 6:56 AM
AAPL
should see $390+ soon…

We got into AAPL weekly 390 calls and came away with a +119% winner in just 2 hours!

  • 08:54 | Ecstatic Plays AAPL ($393.90) Sold to Close 1223C390 Dec 390 calls, at $5.70 +119%
  • 06:42 | Ecstatic Plays AAPL ($388.70) Bought to Open 1223C390 Dec 390 calls, at $2.60

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AAPL went higher in the afternoon and closed at $395.95, up +3.59% for the day.

After the market, ORCL reported disappointing earnings; its shares tumbled 10%.  On the other hand, NKE delivered a strong quarter; its shares were up +3% in after-hours trading.

The Dow was up +337.32 points; SPX gained +35.95 points; Nasdaq jumped +80.59 points:

HGX (housing) popped +5.88%.  OIH (oil services) bounced +4.82%.  XME (metals and mining) added +5.28%.  XLF (financials) advanced +3.79%, but still below $13.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) also bounced.  USO (oil) was up +3.74%.

SPX

SPX added +35.95 points to close at 1241.3.  It closed above its daily MAs and the MACD turned up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq jumped +80.59 points to close at 2603.73.  It also closed above its daily MAs.  Its MACD went higher.

The market was very weak yesterday, almost touching 1200 on the SPX.  But, some good data out of Europe quickly turned things around.  It’s been this range-bound market’s characteristics for the past couple of weeks.  There has been a lot of talks about a holiday rally for 2 weeks.  Is this finally it?  ORCL’s weak earnings this evening could exert some pressure on certain tech stocks (IBM was trading lower this evening; CRM and VMW hardly moved today in a strong market).  We have GDP report coming on Thursday, which could determine whether this rally will continue.

Asian markets have been beaten down so much this month.  We could see Asian markets make some solid bounce tonight.  Let’s pay attention to Chinese and China-related stocks tomorrow.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XME, OIH, XLF, MOO, GS, WFC, JPM, MA, V, CME, ICE, RIG, DO, CLF, POT, MOS, AGU, CLF, BTU, WLT, ANR

December 18, 2011 – 7:08 pm

The market broke a 2-week winning streak to end lower.  In my Market Forecast last weekend, I wrote:

"For the new week, we’ll have to see if this market can continue its rally that started 2 weeks ago.  One bullish sign is that for SPX and DJI, the 10-day MA has risen above the 30-day MA, and the MACDs are still bullish.  The market really needs to see a bigger jump.  SPX needs to break above 1280 to get the shorts to cover.  Financials are once again the key.  While they may not lead the market up, but, at least, we’ll need to see them going higher in order for the market to rally.  Energy stocks and fertilizers seem weak, which we’ll take a closer look in Sector Watch."

Well, financials gapped down lower on Monday and pretty much set the tone for the week.  Energy and fertilizer stocks also plummeted.  After a weak Monday, the market gave in to selling pressure on Tuesday, as the Fed avoided mentioning further quantitative easing.  We traded on the downside and booked some quick profits.  Stocks slide lower on Wednesday, and, we booked more profits on the downside, including an intraday +78% winner on FFIV puts.  The market tried hard to bounce on Thursday and Friday, but, was not able to get very far.

Here are our closed trades for the week:

  • 09:14 | HappyTrading MOS ($46.80) Sold to Close 12P50 Dec 50 put, at $3.35 +34%
  • 08:45 | HappyTrading FFIV ($103.90) Sold to Close 12P105 Dec 105 put, at $2.45 +78%
  • 08:17 | HappyTrading FFIV ($104.40) Sold to Close 12P105 Dec 105 put, at $2.15 +68%
  • 08:16 | HappyTrading MOS ($46.90) Sold to Close 12P50 Dec 50 put, at $3.20 +28%
  • 12:26 | HappyTrading GOOG ($631.00) Sold to Close 12C630 Dec 630 calls, at $5.50 -26%
  • 12:02 | HappyTrading WYNN ($105.60) Sold to Close 12P110 Dec 110 put, at $5.00 +47%
  • 11:52 | HappyTrading WYNN ($105.60) Sold to Close 12P110 Dec 110 put, at $4.90 +44%
  • 08:09 | HappyTrading IBM ($192.50) Sold to Close 12C195 Dec 195 calls, at $0.55 -45%
  • 12:40 | HappyTrading GS ($97.80) Sold to Close 12P100 Dec 100 put, at $3.50 +6%
  • 07:26 | HappyTrading AAPL ($391.60) Sold to Close 12C400 Dec 400 calls, at $1.51 -70%

For the week, the Dow was down 317.87 points; SPX lost 35.53 points; Nasdaq fell 91.52 points.  Both gold and oil took sharp falls, with gold trading under $1600/ounce and oil falling back to $93/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly down.  Let’s take a look at where the US market stood after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +3.91 points to close at 1219.66.  It closed below its daily MAs.  The MACD was slightly down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +14.32 points to close at 2555.33.  Its daily MAs and MACD slid.

Even though VIX stayed weak and closed below 25.  Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs.  Further, their respective 10-day MAs turned down again!  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 12/18/11.

By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Market Stuck in a Range: SPX, Nasdaq, GOOG, AAPL, FFIV, GLD, MOS, DECK, RIMM, AMGN, ONXX, TEVA, LLY

December 15, 2011 – 4:03 pm

After Tuesday’s slide, the market took a bigger fall on Wednesday.  We were pretty much in a neutral stance and was able to take advantage of the market’s quick drop.  It was a busy Wednesday morning.  We jumped on puts, including playing GOOG, DECK, and AAPL for some quick trades:

December 14, 2011 6:37 AM
AAPL
coming down…

December 14, 2011 6:54 AM
DECK
sliding…

December 14, 2011 6:54 AM
FFIV
coming down…

December 14, 2011 8:37 AM
PCLN
down $20!!

GOOG
coming down…

December 14, 2011 8:39 AM
GOOG
got a nice trade on the puts…

December 14, 2011 8:48 AM
DECK
100 puts up big, but, no volume…

December 14, 2011 9:00 AM
AAPL
385 puts doubled in 2 hours!

For our Email Alerts, we also took in some good trades:

  • December 14, 2011
  • 09:14 | HappyTrading MOS ($46.80) Sold to Close 12P50 Dec 50 put, at $3.35 +34%
  • 08:45 | HappyTrading FFIV ($103.90) Sold to Close 12P105 Dec 105 put, at $2.45 +78%
  • 08:17 | HappyTrading FFIV ($104.40) Sold to Close 12P105 Dec 105 put, at $2.15 +68%
  • 08:16 | HappyTrading MOS ($46.90) Sold to Close 12P50 Dec 50 put, at $3.20 +28%
  • 06:36 | Ecstatic Plays GLD ($156.40) Sold to Close 12P160 Dec 160 put, at $4.00 +102%

Gold took a sharp fall this week, and we locked in an overnight double on GLD puts, +102% gain.  FFIV gave us a quick +78% profits, intraday.

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As discussed in the Trading Room, things went nowhere today.  The early strength quickly faded.

After the market, RIMM further disappointed investors with its latest quarterly report, with weak guidance.  RIMM shares fell 7% in after-hours trading.  I looked at the puts on RIMM before the close, but, did not think it was worth the risk, as the December 15 puts were already trading at $1.  RIMM was trading just above $14 at the time of this writing.

The Dow was up +45.33 points; SPX added +3.93 points; Nasdaq climbed +1.7 points:

OIH (oil services) was down 1.78%, as USO (oil) shed 1.45%.  Other big sectors were basically flat.  As noted in my Market Forecast this weekend, the housing sector is really strong.  HGX (housing) was up +1.61% today.

Even though the market continued to appear weak, VIX was weak as well.  VIX barely closed above 25 today.  Therefore, we can’t discount the possibility of the market bouncing.  This market is still stuck in a wide range.  So, we are staying neutral and keeping lots of cash and take trades when we see the market making a big move.  One thing about a market in a range is that you have to pay extra attention to soft supports and resistances, as they could be the point at which the market makes a quick turn.  For now, SPX seems to find a support at 1210.

If you’re looking for long-side trades, besides the housing sector, the health care sector did well today.  XLV (health care) was up +1.11% today.  AMGN was up +1.74%.  ONXX gained +3.77% and was selected to Goldman Sachs conviction list.  TEVA added +2.86% and LLY rose +2.95%.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Another Wild Session Ending Down on Fed Day! SPX, Nasdaq, BIDU, SINA, SOHU, WYNN, LVS, WLT, CLF, ANR, AMZN, GMCR

December 13, 2011 – 3:59 pm

The market started the day on the upside.  But, it soon lost the bullishness.  The strange thing all day was that VIX was down.  VIX went below 24 in the morning and closed just above 25.  As expected, Fed left interest rates unchanged.  But, soon after the Fed announcement, stock accelerated downward.

Chinese stocks, and China-related stocks, were weak again:  BIDU -4.25%, SINA -2.43%, SOHU -5.02%.  Both WYNN and LVS went lower as well.  We took a quick trade on WYNN puts and took the profits a little early:

  • December 13, 2011
  • 12:02 | HappyTrading WYNN ($105.60) Sold to Close 12P110 Dec 110 put, at $5.00 +47%
  • 11:52 | HappyTrading WYNN ($105.60) Sold to Close 12P110 Dec 110 put, at $4.90 +44%
  • 07:50 | HappyTrading WYNN ($107.70) Bought to Open 12P110 Dec 110 put, at $3.40

In the Trading Room, we traded puts on AMZN and GMCR:
December 13, 2011 6:50 AM
AMZN
down…

December 13, 2011 7:24 AM
GMCR
down $2.3

December 13, 2011 8:03 AM
AMZN
took a nice trade on the puts…

GMCR
55 puts flew since this morning…

December 13, 2011 8:14 AM
AMZN
tumbling!

December 13, 2011 10:39 AM
GMCR
55 puts now $5!! 

Mining stocks were weak again:  CLF -4.29%; ANR -3.93%; WLT -5.38%

The Dow was down 66.45 points; SPX lost 10.74 points; Nasdaq dropped 32.99 points:

XME (metals and mining) fell 3.65%.  Both GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) dropped again.  OIH (oil services) was down 1.88%.  SOXX (semiconductors) continued to sink, down 2.36%.  XLF (financials) slipped 1.41%.

SPX

SPX fell 10.74 points to close at 1225.73.  Its daily MAs and MACD went down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq dropped 32.99 points to close at 2579.27.  It closed below its daily MAs.  Its MACD turned down.

There was just no buyers on the market today!  (Well, except right at the open.)  Even though VIX was weak all day, the market could not rally after Fed’s rate announcement.  With only about 2 weeks left in trading this year, the market seems to be just stuck in a wide range.  Tech, mining, energy, financials are all turning weaker.  Asian markets have broken down.  Will the US market follow?  A lot of people keep looking for a Santa rally, thinking that the fund managers will need to chase performance.  But, perhaps the financials crisis in Europe is just too much of an unknown for the buyers to stay in.  The strong rally in October may have gotten some fund managers worry about their performanace as they were underperforming the market indices.  But, perhaps now, it is easier to just drive the market indices back down.

This market is still very volatile, and we could still see the market rally as VIX is at its lowest since August.  We’re trading small right now until the market either breaks out or breaks down.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, HGX, XLF, MOO, XLE, EOG, IOC, RIG, DO, SLB, NOV, GS, WFC, JPM, MA, V, SPG, TOL, LEN, VMC

December 11, 2011 – 7:22 pm

Last week, the market pretty much held its breath waiting for the EU leaders to come up with measures to prevent their financial crisis from deteriorating.  In my Market Forecast last weekend, I said,

"For the new week, the market will start from a neutral position.  SPX did manage to close above 1240 last week.  The immediate resistance is between 1260 and 1280.  It’ll be interesting if the market does get to test 1280 again, which it was not able to break through in October.  Financials will once again be key."

Without knowing what would come out of the EU summit.  The forecast pretty much captured what was happening.  The market traded in a tight range and stood in neutral gear.  From Monday through Wednesday, the market was slightly up, but, really didn’t go anywhere.  We locked in profits along the way, including +104% on SNDK and +145% on IBM; plus, a quick intraday +86% on NFLX.  The market took a quick fall on Thursday as the EU leaders still did not reach an agreement.  On Thursday night, however, an agreement was reached with 23, including all 17 eurozone states, of the 27 European countries.  The market bounced back on Friday and ended the week slightly up.

Here are our closed trades last week:

  • 07:21 | HappyTrading WLT ($66.80) Sold to Close 12P65 Dec 65 calls, at $1.61 -11%
  • 09:14 | HappyTrading WLT ($66.10) Sold to Close 12P65 Dec 65 put, at $2.05 +14%
  • 12:43 | HappyTrading CMI ($95.00) Sold to Close 12P95 Dec 95 put, at $2.65 -17%
  • 07:31 | HappyTrading QCOM ($53.87) Sold to Close 12C55 Dec 55 calls, at $0.59 -44%
  • 07:25 | HappyTrading MON ($70.95) Sold to Close 12C72.5 Dec 73 calls, at $0.88 -41%
  • 07:28 | HappyTrading SNDK ($52.05) Sold to Close 12C48 Dec 48 calls, at $4.55 +104%
  • 07:03 | HappyTrading IBM ($192.90) Sold to Close 12C190 Dec 190 calls, at $4.65 +145%

For the week, the Dow was up +164.84 points; SPX added +10.91 points; Nasdaq gained +19.92 points.  Both gold and oil went slightly lower.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher.  Let’s see how the US market closed on Friday:

SPX

SPX added +20.84 points to close at 1255.19.  Its 10-day MA and MACD went up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +50.47 points to close at 2646.85.  Its 10-day MA and MACD also climbed higher.

Although the market did closed slightly up for the week.  It is still in the middle of a wide range.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 12/11/11.

By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Is It EU, or Ewwww?!? SPX, Nasdaq, WLT, CLF, SLB, APA, OXY, GS, BLK, WFC, TXN, ALTR

December 8, 2011 – 8:56 pm

How quickly has this week gone by?  The whole week was about the EU summit.  Global financial markets were pulled and pushed by the news coming out of Europe on the hour!  By the end of Thursday, the EU leaders still could not convince the global markets that they will come up with solid solutions to fight the financial crisis.  So, stocks just drifted lower.

Mining and energy stocks were very weak:  WLT -6.61%; CLF -5.17%; SLB -4.18%; APA -3.65%; OXY -3.74%.  The finacials slid back, after showing some strength in the beginning of the week:  WFC -3.18%; BLK -3.94%; GS -4.96%.

The Dow was down 198.67 points; SPX lost 26.66 points; Nasdaq dropped 52.83 points:

SOXX (semiconductors) and FDN (internet) were both weak.  XME (metals and mining) plummeted 4.83%.  OIH (oil services) fell 3.35%.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) both dropped.  XLF (financials) fell below $13, again.

SPX

SPX lost 26.66 points to close at 1234.35.  It closed at its 30-day MA.  The MACD went down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq dropped 52.83 points to close at 2596.38.  It closed below the 30-day MA.  Its MACD also went down.

As mentioned in this week’s Market Forecast, the Dow has been outperforming Nasdaq and SPX.  This means that smart money is buying the bluechip stocks more than the betas.  SPX keeps fighting to break 1260.  But, after 4 days, SPX still could not break that barrier.   After the market, TXN lowered its 4Q outlook, and its shares fell 5.85%.  ALTR chimed the same tune; its shares dropped 6.12%.  These won’t help the Nasdaq tomorrow.  Just last week, the market went on a wild run.  Now, its right back into neutral gear, in the middle of the wide range that the market has been stuck in for the past 3 months! 

VIX popped back above 30 today.  You know what that means:  caution is back on!  The latest from Europe is that the EU summit has failed to reach an accord for the 27 countries.  So, now the 17 eurozone states are trying to reach their own agreement.  For once, it was not the US Congress that held the world’s breath.  After a whole week of anticipation, so far, EU has reintroduced the sour taste in the global financial markets.  Ewwww!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Another Day of Consolidation, More Profits For Us! SPX, Nasdaq, IBM, SNDK, NFLX, WYNN, AMZN, POT, AGU, CF, MON, BIDU, LVS, WYNN, SINA, PCLN

December 6, 2011 – 4:03 pm

The market was on its second day of consolidation, as discussed in our Trading Room.  We locked in solid profits on IBM and SNDK yesterday, with a +145% profit on IBM and +104% gain on SNDK (we bought these at the beginning of last week):

  • 07:28 | HappyTrading SNDK ($52.05) Sold to Close 12C48 Dec 48 calls, at $4.55 +104%
  • 07:03 | HappyTrading IBM ($192.90) Sold to Close 12C190 Dec 190 calls, at $4.65 +145%

Then, we jumped into NFLX for quick intraday trade in our Ecstatic Plays (Click HERE to find out more about our new service Ecstatic Plays!).  We came away with a +86% profit in just 3 hours:

  • 10:38 | Ecstatic Plays NFLX ($71.55) Sold to Close 1209C70 Dec 70 calls, at $3.35 +86%
  • 10:27 | Ecstatic Plays NFLX ($71.10) Sold to Close 1209C70 Dec 70 calls, at $3.10 +72%
  • 07:33 | Ecstatic Plays NFLX ($68.70) Bought to Open 1209C70 Dec 70 calls, at $1.80

Today, the market traded flat again.  We got out of our WYNN puts early, but, picked up some AMZN puts and turned a quick profit:

  • December 06, 2011
  • 10:37 | Ecstatic Plays AMZN ($190.15) Sold to Close 1209P190 Dec 190 put, at $3.40 +39%
  • 10:33 | Ecstatic Plays AMZN ($191.70) Sold to Close 1209P190 Dec 190 put, at $3.00 +22%
  • 09:53 | Ecstatic Plays AMZN ($192.60) Bought to Open 1209P190 Dec 190 put, at $2.45
  • 07:26 | Ecstatic Plays WYNN ($115.90) Sold to Close 1209P115 Dec 115 put, at $2.00 +8%

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Agriculture stocks finally bounced today, as discussed in my Market Forecast this weekend.  CF jumped +4.28%; POT added +3.91%; MOS gained +3.44%; MON advanced +2.79%.

The Dow was up +52.3 points; SPX added +1.39 points; Nasdaq slid 6.2 points:

GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) bounced today.  GDX (gold miners) added +2%.  XLF (financials) was flat.  XME (metals and mining) eked out a small gain.  FDN(internet) was on the weak side.  OIH (oil services) slid 1.05%.

SPX

SPX added +1.39 points to close at 1258.47, still below 1260.  Its daily MAs and MACD went slightly up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq slid 6.2 points to close at 2649.56, just below 2650.  Its 20- and 30-day MAs were flat.  The MACD went higher.

After last week’s tremendous rally, this market needs some rest.  It has been consolidating for the past couple of days.  While we are seeing some profit-taking, at the same time, dip-buyers seem to keep the market afloat.  The market has a hard time keeping above 1260, for now.  The market appears to be cautious, perhaps waiting for concrete plans out of the EU summit.  VIX has been climbing a bit after briefly sinking to 26 on Monday morning.  It closed just above 28 today.

Chinese internet stocks continued to underperform the broader market.  BIDU was down 2.51% and SINA sank another 5.47%.  WYNN and LVS which are "China-related" stocks were also weak today.  WYNN lost 3.37%.  PCLN has also be sliding lower.  After trading above $550 on the recent earnings report, PCLN quickly dropped down to $460 and has not been able to gain its strength back.  It closed at $479.1 today.  These stocks could be very interesting this month.  If the market does not break out, these stocks could see new breakdowns.  If the market does push higher, because these stocks have been lagging, we could see them bounce and perhaps even see some short squeezes!

We are still mostly in cash, after cashing out on Monday morning.  This market may need another day or 2 to sort things out.  So, be a little more patient, and don’t chase trades!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Market Forecast + Sector Watch: GLD, XME, MOO, XLF, CF, POT, MOS, MON, AGU, CLF, WLT, CAT, JOYG, GS, BLK, MA, V

December 4, 2011 – 10:01 pm

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, we discussed,

"For the new week, the market looks very weak, but, could perhaps use a bounce.  News that France and Germany are looking at new options to help combat with the financial crisis in Europe may inspire a bounce in world markets.  But, unless there are solid solutions coming out of Europe, this bounce is not likely to hold."

On Monday, the market did get a big bounce on the new efforts in Europe.  The market took a rest on Tuesday, and we locked in some profits.  On Wednesday, global central banks took a collective action to pump liquidity into the global financial systems and stocks jumped even more.  The market took another breather on Thursday ahead of US’ unemployment rate report.  We continued to lock in profits.  Friday brought a nice surprise as the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6%, below the dreaded 9%.  But, as expected, the market could not make further advance without some consolidation.

Nevertheless, the market had a tremendous week, the best in almost 3 years!  The Dow was up +787.64 points; SPX added +85.61 points; Nasdaq gained +185.42 points.  We also did very well, finishing another perfect week with 100% of the trades in profit.

Gold managed a small bounce, trading near $1750/ounce.  Oil powered back to $100/barrel.  This evening, Asian markets were mixed, at the time of this writing.  Let’s take a look at where the US market closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slid 0.3 points to close at 1244.28.  The 10-day MA turned up and the MACD went higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq added +0.73 points to close at 2626.93.  It closed right at its 30-day MA.  The MACD glided up.

It was apparent that the global governments knew that they had to step in to prevent global financials markets from breaking down further.  The collaborative efforts from the global central banks quickly turned the markets back up.  The question now is, "Can the markets keep the momentum going?"  Next week is going to be a crucial week, as EU leaders meet to try to save Europe’s currency union.  This evening, Italian PM Monti unveiled a 30 billion euro package of austerity measures to shore up Italy‘s strained public finances and help to stem a debt crisis threatening to overwhelm the euro zone.  For the new week…

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Weekly Wrap-Up 12/3/2011: GOOG, IBM, GLD, AAPL, V, GS

December 3, 2011 – 10:30 am

What a week it was for the market!  It was a "1-2-punch-and-a-light-uppercut’ kind of week!  On Monday, encouraging news came out of Europe as Germany and France discussed new policies to keep the Eurozone together.  On Wednesday, global central banks sent a loud, cohesive, and positive message to the global markets by increasing liquidity.  On Friday, the US employment rate fell below 9%, to 8.6%.  Although 8.6% unemployment rate is nothing to brag about, it sure beats seeing the unemployment rate staying above 9% month after month!

US stock market had its best week since 2009!  We were perhaps a little too cautious in our plays, but, still came away with another perfect week and 100% of the trades being profittable.  Here are the closed trades:

  • December 01, 2011
  • 11:49 | HappyTrading IBM ($189.94) Sold to Close 12C190 Dec 190 calls, at $3.30 +74%
  • 11:44 | HappyTrading SNDK ($49.75) Sold to Close 12C48 Dec 48 calls, at $2.88 +29%
  • November 30, 2011
  • 10:32 | HappyTrading GLD ($170.00) Sold to Close 12C168 Dec 168 calls, at $4.20 +42%
  • November 29, 2011
  • 07:21 | HappyTrading AAPL ($378.50) Sold to Close 1202C375 Dec 375 calls, at $6.20 +32%
  • November 28, 2011
  • 12:18 | HappyTrading V ($92.89) Sold to Close 1202C92.5 Dec 93 calls, at $1.43 +19%
  • 12:17 | HappyTrading AAPL ($374.20) Sold to Close 1202C370 Dec 370 calls, at $7.40 +7%
  • November 23, 2011
  • 08:39 | HappyTrading GS ($87.70) Sold to Close 1125P90 Nov 90 put, at $2.80 +12%

In our Ecstatic Plays, we scored an overnight +157% trade on GOOG weekly calls:

  • December 01, 2011
  • 06:45 | Ecstatic Plays GOOG ($605.00) Sold to Close 1202C600 Dec 600 calls, at $7.20 +157%

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I’ll be back on Sunday evening to discuss the market’s outllok for next week in my weekly Market Forecast.  Perhaps, we are going to have a holiday rally after all?

Have a wonderful weekend and HappyTrading! ™

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By HappyTrading | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (0)
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