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Market Bounces on Latest Economic Data and M&A Activity: SPX, Nasdaq, POT, BHP, CF, MOS, AGU, AMZN, WYNN, WLT, CLF, X, FCX

The market was strong out of the gate this morning on the latest economic reports, including better-than-expected industrial production and housing data.  WMT reported solid earnings and raised its full-year guidance.  WMT shares traded up +1.21%.  HD barely beat the estimates with its earnings, but, its shares went up +3.4%.

In addition, BHP initiated a takeover bid for POT at a price of $130/share, to which POT publicly rejected as being "grossly inadequate".  Stocks in the agriculture sector all jumped (see Sector Watch from this weekend).  POT gained a whopping +27.66% to close just above $143, above the BHP bid price.  AGU, which had tried to buy CF last year, went shopping again this weekend with a bid of more than $1 billion for Australian grain producer AWB.  AGU shares rose +4.58%.  CF added +4.66% and MOS hopped +8.74%.

Mining stocks were very strong today as well:  WLT +7.27%, CLF +3.97%, X +4.23%, FCX +3.11%.  We opened a few new trades this morning, and took some quick profits before the end of the day, including trades on AMZN and WYNN:

August 17, 2010
12:16 | HappyTrading AMZN ($129.40) Sold to Close 08C125 Aug 125 calls, at $4.75 +44%
11:26 | HappyTrading WYNN ($90.90) Sold to Close 08C90 Aug 90 calls, at $1.90 +76%
10:21 | HappyTrading AMZN ($129.95) Sold to Close 08C125 Aug 125 calls, at $5.30 +61%
10:20 | HappyTrading WYNN ($91.19) Sold to Close 08C90 Aug 90 calls, at $2.10 +94%
08:50 | HappyTrading AMZN ($129.75) Sold to Close 08C125 Aug 125 calls, at $5.10 +55%
08:39 | HappyTrading WYNN ($90.79) Sold to Close 08C90 Aug 90 calls, at $1.95 +81%

For WYNN, we got into the August 90 calls and basically doubled in a couple of hours.  Our highest exit was at $2.1; the day high was $2.11.  Those August 90 calls dropped all the way back to $1.15 for the close.  So, our exits were very good.  We also got some good timing on the AMZN trade.  Our highest exit there was $5.3 and the day high was $5.4.  The AMZN August 125 calls closed at $4.2.  Both of these trades were initiated this morning and completely closed by the end of the day.

The Dow ended the day up +103.84 points; SPX added +13.16 points; Nasdaq gained +2209.44 points:

Almost every sector ended in the green today.  XME (metals and mining) led the charge with a +2.8% win.  OIH (oil services) bounced +2.33%.  XLE (energy) went up +1.67%.  XLF (financials) was muted, albeit green.  SWH (software) garnered almost +2%.  MOO (agriculture) vaulted +4.88% on the M&A activities.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) rose +0.84%.

SPX

SPX added +13.16 points to close at 1092.54.  It closed just below the 30-day MA.  The MACD slid.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +27.57 points to close at 2209.44, above the 2200 level.  Its 10-day MA went lower.

Both SPX and Nasdaq popped back above their respective support levels (SPX 1080 and Nasdaq 2200), although Nasdaq closed just barely above.  Just yesterday, a lot of people were looking for the market to break down, but, the market managed to hold on.  With the market indices just above the support levels, the market is hardly out of danger.  We’ll have to see if the market can continue this rally.  Thus, we closed most of our August call plays and are back into mostly cash. 

The market tested SPX 1100 today, but, was not able to break through.  In the Trading Room, I commented,

August 17, 2010 10:23 AM
market
VIX below 24; SPX testing 1100… might need a little rest before going higher…

If you check the time stamps, from above, on our highest exits today, you can get a sense of how timely our members get vital information in our Trading Room.  The market acted on cue and started selling off.  Cashing these trades out gives us a lot more "options" for tomorrow, and perhaps the rest of the week.  If the market turns down, we will be prepared to trade the downside.  On the other hand, if the market continues to rally, we can jump back into our trades.  The funny things is, the WYNN trade came back to our original entry point, after we have doubled and cash out!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™ (click to see our Facebook Page)

Weekly Wrap + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, TLT, USO, GLD, SOXX, MOO, POT, MOS, AGU, CF, CAGC, SEED

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,

"For the new week, the market can run further into its newly developed bullish formation.  The market has already stuttered around the SPX 1120 to 1130 area for a long time.  If it’s going to break higher, it’ll have to catch the daily upper BB.  This will mean breaking above 1130 first; so, that’s the first resistance."

Indeed, that 1130 was the resistance.  SPX got as high as 1129.94!!  The Fed gave no surprises and kept the interest rates at historic lows.  However, a slew of disappointing economic data prompted a big selloff on the market.  On Monday, the market crawled higher to test SPX 1130.  It was not able to break it.  On Tuesday, the market was weak in the morning, but, bounced back up after the Fed announcement.  On Wednesday, the market focused on the economic data from China, which showed slowing industrial growth, and tumbled.  The market traded slightly lower on Thursday and Friday on low volumes.

We salvaged this week by quickly getting out of longside trades and hopping on shortside trades on Wednesday morning.  We did a nice triple-digit profit trade on ICE puts:

August 12, 2010
09:08 | HappyTrading CLF ($59.00) Sold to Close 08057.5 Aug 58 puts, at $1.41 -12%
06:34 | HappyTrading ICE ($100.60) Sold to Close 080105 Aug 105 puts, at $5.20 +117%

August 11, 2010
01:02 | HappyTrading ICE ($102.00) Sold to Close 08P105 Aug 105 puts, at $4.00 +67%
12:48 | HappyTrading ICE ($101.80) Sold to Close 08P105 Aug 105 puts, at $4.20 +75%
06:44 | HappyTrading WYNN ($89.10) Sold to Close 08C90 Aug 90 calls, at $1.90 -46%
06:35 | HappyTrading GOOG ($495.00) Sold to Close 08C510 Aug 510 calls, at $2.40 -56%

August 10, 2010
07:56 | HappyTrading QCOM ($39.60) Sold to Close 08C38 Aug 38 calls, at $1.80 +6%

For the week, the Dow was down 350.41 points; SPX lost 42.39 points; Nadsaq fell 114.99 points.  Oil had a huge drop, back down to the $75 level.  Gold rose up above $1215/ounce.  This evening, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly lower; but, Shanghai (Chinese) market is higher.  Here’s how the US market looks after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slid 4.36 points to close at 1079.25, just below the 1080 level.  It also closed below the daily MAs.  The MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 16.79 points to close at 2173.48.  It closed at its daily lower BB.  The 10-day MA curved down.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs.  The 10-day MAs turned lower.  The MACDs crossed over to the bearish side.  VIX jumped back above 26.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page.  If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 8/15/10.

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Market Slumps On Renewed Economic Worries: SPX, Nasdaq, CSCO, CREE, VECO, AAPL, GS, WLT, CLF, FCX, ATI, RTI, X

As further economic data showed slowing in the global economy, the US stock market took a sharp fall today.  Miners led the market lower:  WLT -5.21%, CLF -5.03%, FCX -4.33%, X -5.19%, ATI -7.58%, RTI -6.87%.  Market leaders such as GS and AAPL also took big falls.  GS dropped 3.02%, closing below $150.  AAPL lost 3.55%, ending barely above $250.

Last night, CREE disappointed investors with its forward guidance.  CREE was down 13.27%.  VECO also suffered a similar loss, down 13.33%.  Less than 3 weeks ago, VECO jumped to almost $48 after its earnings report.  It closed just above $32 today.

The Dow was down 265.42 points; SPX tumbled 31.59 points; Nasdaq fell 68.54 points:

XME (metals and mining) slumped 4.81%.  SOXX (semiconductors) led the techs down, losing 4.26%.  USO (oil) fell 3.15% while OIH (oil services) lost 3.43%.  XLF (financials) dropped 3.53%.  PBW (clean energy) shed 5.47%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) was down 2.78%.

SPX

SPX tumbled 31.59 points to close at 1089.47, below 1090.  It closed right at its 30-day MA.  The MACD went down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 68.54 points to close at 2208.63.  It closed below its daily MAs.  The MACD curved lower.

This market is still moving around like a whirlwind within a trading range.  After testing and re-testing the upper resistance for the past 2 weeks, the market is now showing signs of possible breakdown!  In 2 days, the market went from testing the breakout resistance to now testing the breakdown support.  VIX jumped +13.5% to close above 25.  SPX closed below 1090 and could easily test that 1080 again. 

After the market, CSCO shares slumped 7.92% as its revenue disappointed investors.  This could exert addition selling pressure on the market tomorrow.  We’ll also get the lastest jobless claims and import/export data.  Today’s drop is so sharp that it demonstrated a quick shift in the market sentiment, to the down side.  Even if the economic data is favorable tomorrow, it is unlikely that we’ll see too many buyers.

We hopped on some downside plays early in the morning today and had already locked in intraday profits as high as +75%!  The closed trades will be discussed in the weekly wrap report.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™ (click to see our Facebook Page)

No Surprises From The Fed: SPX, Nasdaq, NFLX, AKAM, SPWRA, LDK, CREE, DIS, MA, V

The market gapped down at the open today, following Asian markets big drop last night.  In the afternoon, the Fed came out with its decision of not changing the interest rate and to take small steps in further stimulating the economy.  The market recovered some of its losses, but, still closed lower.

NFLX jumped almost +7% today, after it announced a deal with Epix to stream movies.  NFLX had recently fallen below $100/share after its earnings report.  It is now back up to the all-time high area, trading around $125!!  AKAM received an upgrade to "buy" from Goldman Sachs.  It traded up +4.86%.  Just last week, AKAM traded below $37 after a post-earnings selloff.  Now, it is back above $43.  The theme of rallying post-earnings selloff seems to continue into the summer (see the discussion on "A Day of Huge Gains").  MA and V had both fallen recently, after reporting earnings.  Both MA and V have come roaring back up this week, and are trading at their pre-earnings levels.

After the market, CREE beat the average estimate with its earnings, but, its stock fell 8.7% on its outlook (let’s watch how CREE trades after 1 to 2 weeks).  SPWRA and LDK both reported solid earnings; both are trading higher by +2.47% and +6.43%, respectively.  DIS reported a quarterly profit that rose +40% from a year ago.  Its shares went up +1.16% in after-hours trading.

The Dow was down 54.5 points; SPX slid 6.73 points; Nasdaq fell 28.52 points:

Commodity sectors were mostly down today, as the dollar was strong in the morning.  XME (metals and mining) shed 1.82%.  OIH (oil services) was down 1.36%.  GLD (gold) traded higher after the Fed announcement.  XLF (financials) lost 0.87%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) slumped 2.18%.

SPX

SPX slid 6.73 points to close at 1121.06, above the 1120 level.  The MACd remained flat.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 28.52 points to close at 2277.17, under the 2300 level.  It closed right at its 10-day MA.  The MACD went slightly down.

This market has just been treading water lately.  On Friday, SPX went down to below 1110 and bounced back to close above 1120.  Today, SPX almost touched 1110 again; and yet, it managed to close above 1120.  However, it has yet to break 1130.  VIX kept on finding support at 22.  Neither the bulls nor the bears would give in.  So, the market is still trapped in this tight range.  Whether trading the upside or the downside, there are many opportunities, but, it’s a "stock-picking" environment.  For instance, the recent run-up in the agriculture stocks and the recent run-down in the education stocks.  Here and there, you’ll find the "news-driven" stocks, such as NFLX and AKAM today.  Therefore, patient and trade lightly, until the market either breaks out or breaks down.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™ (click to see our Facebook Page)

Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, XME, XLE, MOO, XLF, BTU, WLT, ACI, ANR, MEE, POT, MOS, CF, AGU, JPM, WFC, GS, BAC, AIG

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote,

"For the new week, on Monday morning, we’ll get the latest ISM and construction spending data.  For both SPX and Nasdaq, the daily MAs of are moving into a new bullish phase.  To break higher, SPX will have to break above 1120.  For Nasdaq, the resistance is at 2300."

Right off the bat, on Monday, the market jumped higher, led by energy and mining sectors, and SPX closed above 1120.  On Tuesday, the market was flat.  On Wednesday, the ADP report (private employment) and ISM Services data were both better than expected.  The market rallied higher and we cashed out on some big gains.  On Thursday, the market was cautious ahead of the the unemployment report, closing slightly lower.  On Friday, the unemployment report came in worse than expected.  The market was weak in the morning, but, rallied back in the afternoon and still managed to close above SPX 1200.  We wrapped up a really nice week with 100% of our trades landing in the green!

For the week, the Dow closed up +187.62 points; SPX added +20.04 points; Nasdaq gained +33.77 points.  Gold bounced back above $1200/ounce, and oil ended higher as well, staying above $80/barrel.  This eveing, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei (Japan) down about 100 points.  Taiwan Weighted Index (TWII), however, broke above the 8000 mark.  Here’s how the US looked after Friday’s close:

SPX

SPX fell 4.17 points to close at 1121.64, just above the 1120 level.  Its daily MAs went higher, but, the MACD flattened.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq slipped 4.69 points to close at 2288.47.  It closed above its daily MAs.  The MACD was flat.

Even though Friday’s unemployment report was disappointing, the market rallied back to close above SPX 1120.  VIX actually closed down on Friday, below 22!  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page.  If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 8/8/10.

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Weekly Wrap 8/6/10: GOOG, GS, CLF, LVS, FSLR, POT, BP

The market managed another winning week, through some mixed economic data.  Friday’s unemployment report was disappointing, and yet, somehow, the market made it through with a minor slip. 

We traded this week beautifully and ended with 100% of our trades in the GR$$N.  We locked in profits on Monday and Wednesday; stayed light on Thursday, and, cashed out our long positions after see the unemployment report.  We even manged to do some quick scalps on the downside with POT puts on Friday.  Here are the closed trades for the week:

August 06, 2010
11:22 | HappyTrading POT ($112.10) Sold to Close 08P115 Aug 115 puts, at $5.00 +10%
08:02 | HappyTrading POT ($113.50) Sold to Close 08P115 Aug 115 puts, at $4.20 +6%
07:42 | HappyTrading BP ($41.20) Sold to Close 08C40 Aug 40 calls, at $2.03 +22%
07:31 | HappyTrading FSLR ($129.00) Sold to Close 08C130 Aug 130 calls, at $3.60 +9%
07:30 | HappyTrading GS ($155.90) Sold to Close 08C150 Aug 150 calls, at $6.90 +33%
07:19 | HappyTrading GOOG ($503.70) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $11.50 +98%

August 04, 2010
12:37 | HappyTrading CLF ($62.40) Sold to Close 08C60 Aug 60 calls, at $3.95 +49%
12:34 | HappyTrading GS ($157.00) Sold to Close 08C150 Aug 150 calls, at $8.05 +55%
12:19 | HappyTrading GOOG ($506.20) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $13.50 +133%
12:09 | HappyTrading GS ($156.48) Sold to Close 08C150 Aug 150 calls, at $7.70 +48%
11:25 | HappyTrading FSLR ($131.15) Sold to Close 08C130 Aug 130 calls, at $5.25 +59%
11:03 | HappyTrading GOOG ($504.20) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $12.00 +107%
08:00 | HappyTrading GOOG ($449.92) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $9.50 +64%
07:05 | HappyTrading LVS ($28.38) Sold to Close 08C25 Aug 25 calls, at $3.60 +31%

August 02, 2010
12:40 | HappyTrading CLF ($60.65) Sold to Close 08C60 Aug 60 calls, at $3.20 +21%
12:38 | HappyTrading LVS ($28.10) Sold to Close 08C25 Aug 25 calls, at $3.35 +22%

This market has certainly made a lot of movements in these past couple of months.  But, still, it is trading within a range.  I’ll be back tomorrow with my weekly Market Forecast to take a closer look at the market’s latest developments.

Hope you’re enjoying your weekend!

Happy Saturday and HappyTrading! ™ (click to see our Facebook Page)

 

Hammer Time! Markets Deflect Poor Jobs Report

What a relief!  After that awful jobs report it certainly seemed as if the rally started Monday was going to fizzle out, and maybe break some support levels.  Well, the dip buyers had other things in mind.  Volume was big early in the session, of course many bailing out on stocks as the BLS released that we created fewer jobs in July than expected.  Volatility climbed early but declined just as much (and more) as the fear was removed.  Was this a one-time event or something worse?  Perhaps a sign of things to come?  Whatever the case, markets finished at/near their highs of the session…an impressive come back on good turnover.  Breadth was nearly 5-1 negative early but managed to close near breakeven. 

We had a superb week of booking gains!

August 05, 2010
06:42 | Bagger Vance CTRP ($42.70) Sold to Close CTRP 082110 40 C Aug 40 calls, at $3.70 +111%

August 04, 2010
10:03 | Bagger Vance BIDU ($86.76) Sold to Close BIDU 082110 80 C Aug 80 calls, at $7.55 +129%
09:33 | Bagger Vance AMZN ($127.40) Sold to Close AMZN 082110 125 C Aug 125 calls, at $5.05 +173%
09:32 | Bagger Vance AMZN ($127.40) Sold to Close AMZN 082110 120 C Aug 120 calls, at $8.65 +52%
08:48 | Bagger Vance SNDK ($45.70) Sold to Close SNDK 082110 43 C Aug 43 calls, at $3.40 +23%
07:30 | Bagger Vance GOOG ($498.50) Sold to Close GOOG 082110 500 C Aug 500 calls, at $8.90 +48%
07:27 | Bagger Vance LVS ($28.60) Sold to Close LVS 082110 27 C Aug 27 calls, at $2.13 +61%

Below are a weekly and daily chart of volatility.  Even with the action Friday there is still a persistent downtrend in place.

The daily pattern shows the VIX under the 200 MA here.  Below here leaves room to drop and the market to rally.

The SPX chart below shows us a resilient effort to hold the gains from earlier in the week.  We’re still in a stockpicker’s market.

The market looks constructive here after testing support on Friday am.  The HPQ news after the close is a wildcard however;  unexpected and putting pressure on the Dow and SPX.  This is clearly an isolated incident and should be brushed off quickly.  The Fed meeting is this week, they are likely to say nothing and be more transparent about the future policy.

Have a great weekend!

Bagger

Five Faded Flyers For the Falling Dollar

In my recent article I wrote how the falling dollar is acting as a fuel to the rising prices in the materials sector. But which materials stocks are good choices to invest in? Here are 5 stocks, at least one of which might be worth considering as a falling dollar play.

In narrowing down the list, I scanned the stocks in the materials sector. I required that the stock have reasonable volume (over 100k). I want the stock to be rising right now in the current market, so we need a new 20-day high today, without a selloff. I also want a stock with room to appreciate, so I limited the list to stocks which are at least 20% below their 1-year peak price. But the stock must be above its 200-day moving average too, because such stocks are capable of attracting money from large funds and they behave in a more positive manner, with longer moves. And finally, the stock must be optionable, because… well we just like options. It is interesting that, out of the thousands of stocks trading every day, there are exactly 5 which fit.  Here they are. Note: two of these stocks even pay dividends.

 


 

Atlas Energy, Inc. operates as an independent developer and producer of natural gas and oil in the Appalachian, Michigan, and Illinois Basins. It primarily holds interests in the Marcellus Shale of western Pennsylvania, the Antrim Shale of northern Michigan, the Chattanooga Shale of northeastern Tennessee, and the New Albany Shale of west central Indiana. The company also provides natural gas gathering services in the Anadarko and Permian Basins in the southwestern and mid-continent United States, as well as in the Appalachian Basin in the eastern United States. As of December 31, 2009, Atlas Energy owned and operated 8 active natural gas processing plants with aggregate capacity of approximately 900 MMcfd and 1 treating facility with a capacity of approximately 200 MMcfd located in Oklahoma and Texas; and 9,100 miles of active natural gas gathering systems situated in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. It also owned and operated a 1,800-mile natural gas gathering system in the Appalachia Basin located in eastern Ohio, western New York, and western Pennsylvania; and an 80-mile natural gas gathering system situated in northeastern Tennessee. The company was formerly known as Atlas America, Inc. and changed its name to Atlas Energy, Inc. in September 2009. Atlas Energy, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Moon Township, Pennsylvania.

 

 

 


 

Mechel OAO, through its subsidiaries, operates as a mining and steel company in the Russian Federation and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Mining, Steel, Ferroalloys, and Power. The Mining segment produces coking and steam coal, as well as iron ore and iron ore concentrate. This segment operates four open pit mines and three underground coal mines in the Kuznetsky Basin, near the city of Mezhdurechensk in southwestern Siberia; two open pit mines and one underground mine in the Sakha Republic in eastern Siberia, as well as holds the license rights to mine the undeveloped Elga coal deposit; four mining complexes in West Virginia in the United States; and Korshunovsk, Rudnogorsk, and Tatianinsk open pit iron ore mines in the Irkutsk region in central Siberia. It also offers coal washing services. The Steel segment produces and sells semi-finished steel products; carbon and specialty long products; carbon and stainless flat products; and value-added downstream metal products, including wire products, stampings, and forgings, as well as steel industry materials, such as limestone, coke, and coking products. The Ferroalloys segment engages in the production and sale of nickel ore, ferronickel, ferrochrome, and ferrosilicon. The power segment produces and sells electricity to internal and external customers. It markets electricity and heat energy from its steam coal. This segment also has interests in a power distribution company. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Moscow, the Russian Federation.

 


 

Silvercorp Metals, Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and mining of precious and base metal mineral properties in the Peoples Republic of China. It explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc properties. The company primarily operates and develops four Silver-Lead-Zinc mines at the Ying Mining Camp, Henan Province; and the Na-Bao Polymetalic Project in Qinghai Province, China. The company is growing its resource base through continuous exploration of existing projects as well as acquiring new development and exploration projects in multiple jurisdictions. Silvercorp is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the NYSE under the symbol T.SVM and SVM respectively.

 


 

Western Refining, Inc. is an independent crude oil refiner and marketer of refined products headquartered in El Paso, Texas, and operates primarily in the Southwestern region of the United States, including Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas. They have invested a significant amount of capital in refinery initiatives that will allow us to improve our crude oil processing flexibility, expand refinery capacity, increase production of higher-value refined products and satisfy certain regulatory requirements.

 


 

Yongye Biotechnology International, Inc., headquartered in Beijing, is engaged in the development, distribution and sales of fulvic acid based nutrients for plants and animals. The Company’s patent pending processes and proprietary formulas allow it to create products which increase crop yields and improve the health of livestock. The Company sells its products through distributors and directly to farmers located in ten provinces throughout China.
 


Good luck.

By Skymist. (No positions)
 


ATLS Atlas Energy, Inc. [Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration] $31.84 +2.8% Div=0% [BGYQMNZSF]
MTL Mechel OAO [Steel & Iron] $23.75 +2.4% Div=0% [BGYQMNZSF]
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. [Silver] $7.00 +4.5% Div=1.08% [BGYQMNZSF]
WNR Western Refining Inc. [Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing] $5.40 +3.5% Div=4.44% [BGYQMNZSF]
YONG Yongye International, Inc. [Agricultural Chemicals] $8.48 +1.3% Div=0% [BGYQMNZSF]

A Day Of Huge Gains! SPX, Nasdaq, PCLN, POT, AGU, MOS, CF, GOOG, GS, CLF, FSLR, LVS

The market pushed higher today as investors cheered better economic data, such as improvement in private employment.  The broader market itself only advanced slightly, as SPX added just +6.78 points.  But, certain stocks really went higher, including most of our positions.

PCLN was the headline grabber.  After last night’s blowout earnings and bullish guidance, PCLN jumped $50.53 or +21.95%, closing above $281/share vs. yesterday’s close of $230.67!!  We have been talking about the agriculture stocks for the past 2 weeks, and especially discussed them in this week’s Market ForecastWe mentioned them again on Monday.  This morning, AGU reported strong earnings with 2Q income rising +37%.  AGU garnered +4.17%.  The agriculture stocks continued to plow higher!  POT added another $5 or +4.69%, closing above $111 (this is from a level of $97.5 before its earnings last week).  CF went up +2.23%.  MOS finally did some catching up, advancing +4.85%. 

We locked in a lot of profits today.  Here are the closed trades for the day:
August 04, 2010
12:37 | HappyTrading CLF ($62.40) Sold to Close 08C60 Aug 60 calls, at $3.95 +49%
12:34 | HappyTrading GS ($157.00) Sold to Close 08C150 Aug 150 calls, at $8.05 +55%
12:19 | HappyTrading GOOG ($506.20) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $13.50 +133%
12:09 | HappyTrading GS ($156.48) Sold to Close 08C150 Aug 150 calls, at $7.70 +48%
11:25 | HappyTrading FSLR ($131.15) Sold to Close 08C130 Aug 130 calls, at $5.25 +59% (intraday)
11:03 | HappyTrading GOOG ($504.20) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $12.00 +107%
08:00 | HappyTrading GOOG ($449.92) Sold to Close 08C500 Aug 500 calls, at $9.50 +64%
07:05 | HappyTrading LVS ($28.38) Sold to Close 08C25 Aug 25 calls, at $3.60 +31%

We have been waiting for GOOG and GS to break higher and have constantly talked about these 2 stocks in the Trading Room.  We have been on these GOOG August 500 calls since July 20, on the GS 150 calls since July 29, while locking in partial profits along the way.  We added to our positions on pullbacks and held on to these patiently.  Our patience paid off today, with a +133% profit on GOOG! 

In the Trading Room, I have been naming off stocks that have pulled back on the day after earnings (SNDK, IBM, INFY, WLP, WYNN, just to name a few).  Many stocks get sold off after good, solid earnings report for no apparent reason (or, at least not very good ones), and most of these stocks have gone higher than their pre-earnings level within 2 weeks from their earnings date.  This is partially how we have made our recent picks.  Two dramatic examples were ISRG and AMZN.  ISRG delivered a strong quarter, but, fell from around $330 to under $300.  Now, it’s back above $335.  AMZN went from $120 to $106 after its earnings report.  It is now trading above $127!

GS, GOOG, and CLF all delivered very solid earnings reports, but, basically did nothing.  GOOG got sold off $40, but, started to climb just 2 days after.  We picked up the calls and waited for them to move up.  Both GOOG and GS have some bullish news recently.  GOOG basically captured the whole online search market with the Yahoo Japan deal.  In addition, GOOG’s Android phones are out-selling both iPhones and Blackberry phones.  GS had recently settled the SEC charges for $550 millino, a mere slap on the wrist for Goldman Sachs.  Coal companies have all reported well, and CLF is one of the fastest moving leaders in the sector.

We picked up FSLR today because it fell $10 after reporting earnings.  There was some chatter about SI being interested in buying FSLR today.  We jumped into the FSLR August 130 calls at $3.3.  A few hours later, we were up about +60% on our position.  So, we locked in some profits.

In addition to the "fundamental" reasons, frankly, the charts of the above stocks have just been screaming "Buy"!

The Dow was up +44.05 points; SPX added +6.78 points; Nasdaq gained +20.05 points:

INX2 (internet) was up +1.25%.  XME (metals and mining) added +1.62% while GDX (gold miners) bounced +2.69%.  MOO (agriculture) rose another +1.28%.  USO (oil) was flat, and GLD (gold) bounced a bit.  XLF (financials) was slightly higher.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) rose +0.38%.

SPX

SPX added +6.78 points to close at 1127.24.  Its daily MAs and MACD went higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +20.05 points to close at 2303.57, above the 2300 level.  The daily MAs and MACD also climbed up.

Both SPX and Nasdaq continued to push higher, thanks, in part, to some better economic data.  Tomorrow, we’ll see the latest jobless claims data.  If the data come in favorable, we should see SPX test 1130.  Then, we may start to see some profit-taking ahead of the unemployment report on Friday.  As I mentioned on Monday, we are still in the recent trading range, although a breakout could be imminent.  We really need to see some continued follow-throughs to be sure.  After "a day of huge gains" such as this, for us today, we have locked in a lot of profits and are back to mostly cash, waiting for the unemployment report on Friday!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™ (click to see our Facebook Page)

Anatomy of Amazon.com Trades

This past week or so we’ve had some good success with Amazon.com.  I want to clue you in to what I was seeing at the time to help you learn from the winning trades.

Amazon is never an easy trade to get going.  Volatility is usually quite high, short interest is always excessive and squeezes are brisk and painful (for shorts).  The action since earnings has been constructive, as the stock nosedived more than 10% only to rally back furiously.  Currently the stock is well above the level it was at on the earnings release.  You’ll notice in the chart below how the momentum indicators held firm on the drop as the stock soon rested, ready for the next run higher.  You might remember in the trading room I pounded the table on the stock on Aug 3, and you can see I was really a day late on it (arrows).  However, I did buy into the options as you may recall for an earnings play and paid up for it, too.  I held the calls though, and now am happy I did so.  With so much time remaining, the premium sucked dry…why not just hold on, right?  Today’s acceleration allowed us to exit for a very solid gain, after being down 90% at one point.

  • August 04, 2010
  • 09:33 | Bagger Vance AMZN ($127.40) Sold to Close AMZN 082110 125 C Aug 125 calls, at $5.05 +173%
  • 09:32 | Bagger Vance AMZN ($127.40) Sold to Close AMZN 082110 120 C Aug 120 calls, at $8.65 +52%

What I look for are turning points…not to jump on board, but to watch and wait for my entry…a safe one, especially a name like Amazon.  Google is no different, nor are any of the higher beta names.  Remember, I’m a trend trader, not looking for tops/bottoms…that’s a LOSER’S game.  When all the momentum indicators are in alignment, volume levels pressing higher and price action moving then that’s where I strike.  Oh, I may miss out on some gains, but I’ll miss the big losses if my timing is not right.  But, without knowing ANYTHING…it’s pretty obvious to one’s eye that BUYERS ARE SUPPORTING THIS STOCK.  End of story, no more thinking to do! 

Bagger!