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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XME, HGX, GLD, XLF, XLE, APC, COG, TSO, VLO, OXY, MA, V, GDX, TOL, BZH, PPG, SHW, CLF, WLT

Happy Oscar night!

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,

"For the new week, the market starts the week off looking a bit tired.  Last week, the major indices closed just below the resistance levels (SPX 1520; Nasdaq 3200).  If it gets a pullback, 1510 to 1500 is the nearest support.  It’ll still need to clear 1520 to break out…  We’ll be watching the financials and the energies.  If these two sectors start to roll over, I think the broader market is ready for a pullback.  Conversely, if these two sectors can push higher, the broader market will likely break higher."

It was a volatile week as I discussed in this Saturday’s weekly wrap-up.  The forecast was once again on target.  Although the market pushed to SPX 1530 on Tuesday, it couldn’t hold.  Things quickly dropped lower, back down to test the support at SPX 1500.  In the end, SPX closed at 1515.6, below 1520, and still was not able to break out.  The financial and energy sectors led the broader market in both directions, as it went through the week’s "mood swings".

For the week, the Dow added +18.81 points; SPX slipped 4.19 points; Nasdaq dropped 30.21 points.  Gold continued to fall lower, closing the week at around $1580/ounce.  Oil slipped back to $93/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were slightly up.  Japan’s Nikkei stood out with a pop of +1.7%.  Let’s see where the US markets closed:


On Friday, SPX added +13.18 points to close at 1515.6.  Its 10-day MA flattened.  The MACD slid.


Nasdaq gained +30.33 points to close at 3161.82.  It barely closed above its 30-day MA.  Its MACD also went lower.

Both SPX and Nasdaq came quickly down to test their respective support levels during the week, while VIX popped above 16.  On Friday, the market did get a bounce, with the Dow climbing back into the green for the week.  For the new week…

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