Wang’s Happy Trading

On Thanksgiving, I wrote a quick article mentioning the potential M&A activities in the agriculture sector.  Over the past 2 days, fertilizer stocks saw tremendous buying on increasing volume!  Today, top officers from Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) made some bullish remarks on the recent demand in corn-nutrient potash.  Although no mergers have been finalized, it is evident that these companies are seeing a burst in their business in the coming years.

POT jumped almost +5% today closing above $122/share, up more than $10 this week already.  MOS did even better, up +7.91% today alone!!  We took some profits on our MOS play today for more than +100%:

December 02, 2009
07:17 | HappyTrading MOS ($60.50) Sold to Close MOSLK Dec 55 calls, at $6.30 +103% 
06:59 | HappyTrading MOS ($60.00) Sold to Close MOSLK Dec 55 calls, at $5.80 +76%

In our published trades, we make things clear for our members when we take partial gains and keep the position open.  For instance, on these MOS trades, I specified that we were locking in profits on our position, partially:
December 2, 2009 7:16 AM
MOS
taking more profits, partially out… +103%

We started play these MOS Dec 55 calls about 2 weeks ago:
November 20, 2009
11:38 | HappyTrading MOS ($55.20) Bought to Open MOSLK Dec 55 calls, at $3.10

We locked in some partial profits just before Thanksgiving:
November 23, 2009
07:07 | HappyTrading MOS ($57.00) Sold to Close MOSLK Dec 55 calls, at $4.00 +29%

Yesterday, I issued an additional trade to buy more:
December 01, 2009
06:46 | HappyTrading MOS ($56.80) Bought to Open MOSLK Dec 55 calls, at $3.30 

Even after locking in more profits today, we still hold a partial position open on these MOS Dec 55 calls, and they have more than doubled overnight from our addition yesterday.  These calls closed at $7.25, up +104% today!  Other big gainers include CF and AGU, up +5.09% and +5.51%, respectively.

I’ve also mentioned before Thanksgiving to watch the Chinese agriculture stocks.  SEED has gone higher.  GRO has pulled back, which could be a good buying opportunity.  CGA broke higher today (we started a new position in this, almost up +100 intraday!).  I mentioned in our Trading Room that CGA could be in the $20s soon:
December 2, 2009 8:08 AM
CGA
is a big momentum stock and could be in the $20s soon…

Agriculture stocks have been relatively flat and have lagged the broader market all year.  They are now finally starting to get some more serious buyers coming back in.  I think these stocks can continue to rise for months to come.  CF is now very interesting as the momentum of its bid to buy TRA has stalled.  On the other hand, AGU is pushing forward with its own $5 billion offer for CF, announcing plans to nominate candidates for CF’s board.  While the bidding war is going on, it keeps speculative attention in the sector, which should continue to draw more buyers in.  In addition, the recent burst in business in agricultural products should attract the fundamentalists into the game as well.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™