Posted by Optiondragon for myhappytrading, a social network made by traders for traders.
From Briefing.com
Periodicals Wrap-Up for Monday, August 18
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH) will probably post a fiscal Q3 loss of $1.8B or more. The firm previously expected to report a fiscal Q3 profit. INDEPENDENT.ie: Bain Capital has submitted a EUR900M bid for Elan’s (ELN) drug delivery business. NEW YORK TIMES: Barclays (BCS) may have to write down an additional GBP1.5B over the next 18 months, a Goldman Sachs analyst said. BLOOMBERG: The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers, is reducing its stock holdings and investing as much as $2.3B in distressed-debt funds run by Leon Black’s Apollo Global Management.
Weekly additions to the Investors Business Daily-100
The following are additions to the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of August 15: Enersys (ENS), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Life Partners Holdings (LPHI), Brucker Corporatiom (BRKR), Sonosite Inc (SONO), Buckle Inc (BKE), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Skilled Healthcare Group (SKH), Apple Inc (AAPL), Microsemi Corp (MSCC), Kenexa Corporation (KNXA), Teledyne Tech (TDY ), Forrester Research (FORR), Itron (ITRI).
Weekly subtractions from the Investor’s Business Daily-100
The following are subtractions from the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of August 15 : CAI International (CAP), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Dorchester Minerals (DMLP), Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (EOC), Baytrex Energy Trust (BTE), Cummins (CMI), Sadia (SDA), Flowers Foods (FLO), Newmarket Corporation (NEU), Gentiva Health Services (GTIV), Lufkin Industries (LUFK), SPX Corporation (SPW), Valmont Industries (VMI), Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Lehman likely to post Q3 loss, not expected profit-WSJ
Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH) was anticipating a fiscal third quarter profit, but now it’s most likely to have a loss of $1.8B or more, reports the Wall Street Journal. If that’s correct the firm’s losses since March will be no less than $4.5B, or more than the firm’s fiscal 2007 profit. The question now is if the firm will need to raise new capital in addition to the $6B they received in June.
Asian Markets Wrap-Up for Monday, August 18
Asian stock advanced but most markets there fell. Indonesia and the Philippines were closed for holidays…JAPAN: The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 146.04, or 1.1%, to 13,165.45, while the broader Topix index gained 16.44, or 1.3%, to 1,263.75. Japan General jumped 13% to Y385. Mitsui Fudosan Co. was up 2.2% to Y2,325. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MTU) added 3.3% to Y845. Komatsu (KMTUY) rose 3.8% Y2,445. Sumitomo Metal Industries Co. leapt 7.4% to Y481. Nippon Steel Corp. was up 2.9% to Y538. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. (NTT) gained 5% to Y549,000…AUSTRALIA: The S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 3.30, or 0.07%, to 4,985.00…AROUND ASIA: In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index retreated 229.91, or 1.1%, to 20,930.67. Sino Land (SNLAY) fell 4.9% to HK$13.20. Foxconn dropped 24% to HK$5.84. Cnooc (CEO) lost 1.9% to HK$10.52. PetroChina Co. (PTR) slid 1.2% to HK$9.83. Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) was down 18 cents, or 2.7%, to HK$6.42.
JP Morgan will start emerging market fund for Indian investors-Economic Times
The Indian fund unit of JP Morgan (JPM) plans to launch a fund that will invest in Middle East, Africa and emerging Europe. The new fund will allow Indians to invest in those regions.
NBC expects to record a healthy profit on the Olympics-NY Times
The television ratings of the Olympics have easily surpassed the expectations of General Electric’s (GE) NBC. An average of 30M people have watched the Olympics on the NBC network each night, and network executives believe that NBC’s profits on the Olympics will exceed $100M.
U.S. equity futures point to a higher open
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly higher open. Crude oil prices are relatively calm given the recent geopolitical concerns and reports of a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Any time a storm brews in the Gulf there are concerns of supply disruption related to the shutdown of oil operations. The current storm is moving erratically and forecasters expect it to eventually strengthen to hurricane force. Elsewhere, Russia has said it would begin to pull out of Georgia. Earlier, the president of Pakistan announced his resignation. Musharraf has been a U.S. ally even though he seized power though a military coup in 1999.
IBM product launch suspiciously low key-Globes Online
IBM (IBM) announced the first product of XIV following the acquisition eight months ago. The company issued no press release on the launch but merely mentioned it on its web page about system launches.
Retail: June quarter preview@WEDB
Wedbush expects to see upside to results and or guidance from: Ann Taylor (ANN), Aeropostale (ARO), Gymboree (GYMB) and Children’s Place (PLCE). They expect to see downside to results from: Casual Male (CMRG), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) and Zumiez (ZUMZ).
American Express-AXP: difficult macro environ to result in high credit cost@FBRC
The time frame for higher-than-anticipated credit costs will be over the next 6-9 months when FBRC expects the stock to decrease from its current levels. Also boding negatively for card issuers are the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, 4Q08 and 1Q09, that is anticipated by FBRC’s Chief Economist. Reiterate $32 price target and Underperform rating.
Research in Motion-RIMM: Checks suggest in-line August quarter@PACS
Based on PacCrest’s checks, August sell-thru for RIMM is not as strong as expected, and the direct to business sales are weaker. However, PacCrest still expects a strong November quarter on new product launches. The shares remain Outperform rated.
Dolby Laboratories-DLB: See slight upside to Sept. Qtr@PIPR
Piper said June quarter CEA data suggests Dolby licensing revenues will be flat to up 5% vs. the firm’s down 4.5% estimate. Shares are Buy rated.
Energy sector downgraded to Neutral from Overweight@JPMS
JP Morgan believes energy fundamentals are solid but expects capital flows to shift toward other sectors like Financials.
SanDisk-SNDK: Recommend selling shares on recent strength@SBSH
Citigroup believes contract pricing is tracking to a 22% drop in Q3 and sees risk to margins and 2009 consensus estimates. The firm maintains a Sell rating.
Focus Media-FMCN: Believe company’s guidance is conservative@OPCO
After Focus Media reported better than expected Q2 results, Oppenheimer thinks the company’s guidance for its fiscal year is conservative, and the firm would buy the stock at its current levels.
Potash-POT added to Top Picks Live List@SBSH
Citigroup believes the recent sell-off is overdone and maintains a Buy rating with a $264 target.
Vertex Pharma-VRTX volatility Flat at 60
VRTX closed at $28.46. Barron’s “VRTX, another company that some investors view as an eventual takeover candidate, is developing Telaprevir, a substance that promises to reduce the time needed to treat hepatitis-C, a potentially fatal liver ailment. Telparevir is currently in stage three testing.” VRTX over all option implied volatility of 60 is near its 26-week average of according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.
Broker Q3 estimates cut given weak environment@UBSW
UBS cut estimates for C, JPM, GS and MS citing weakness across the board.
Japan’s economic comeback likely to be a long one-WSJ
Japan’s economic downturn isn’t too steep but the recovery time may be long, economists say. Last week the Japanese reported its worst GDP quarter in seven years, according to the Wall Street Journal, contracting at an annualized rate of 2.4%, but there wasn’t one overshadowing issued that caused it.
Google-GOOG: View recent weakness as a buying opportunity@WBLR
William Blair believes shares are attractive at current levels and maintains an Outperform rating
Google-GOOG: Expect benefit from Yahoo deal to be disproportionate@JEFF
Jefferies expects GOOG to benefit disproportionately from its deal with Yahoo (YHOO) given the increased network inventory and its ability to look into Yahoo’s display business.
Omrix $25 a share buyout offer would take them private-Globes
Omrix Biopharmaceuticals (OMRI) is considering a $25 a share buyout offer from a U.S. hedge fund that would take the company private.
Abercrombie & Fitch-ANF: building inventory a concern; valuation cheap@FBRC
Primarily due to overall weak macro retail, FBRC anticipates trading to be generally range-bound; however any positive impact from management’s flagship and international efforts, the firm would be more constructive on the stock. The firm reduced their 3Q08 and FY08/FY09 EPS estimates while maintaining their $55 target price and Market Perform rating.
Monsanto-MON estimates and target raised@MLCO
Merrill raised MON estimates based on higher indications by the company for 2009 biotech trait price increases. Target to $165 from $155. Shares are Buy rated.
Solar: JASO, FSLR, & SPWR mentioned positively@LEHM
Lehman said JASO, FSLR, and SPWR have relatively low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations while CSIQ and TSL have relatively high exposure. The firm said recent dollar strength may be a near-term headwind but said downside is limited given valuations.
(Important note on how to use this upgrade/downgrade list with analyst comments and news….you must parse out the factual data (Factual data is the most important) from the opinionated data and always take all analyst comments with a grain of salt. Do not follow blindly with their recommendations. Remember that technicals are the most powerful force in short term direction for stock prices due to the law of supply and demand.)
Dow Jones Industrials Index-DJX: Pivot Points
The following are the pivot points for the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJX). Pivot High: 11739.975, Pivot Low: 11629.815. These were calculated using the DeMark method. It is generally believed to be bullish when price breaks out above the pivot high or bearish when price breaks down below the pivot low.
S&P 500-SPX: Pivot Points
The following are the pivot points for the S&P 500 (SPX). Pivot High: 1305.365, Pivot Low: 1294.485. These were calculated using the DeMark method. It is generally believed to be bullish when price breaks out above the pivot high or bearish when price breaks down below the pivot low.
Nasdaq 100 Index-NDX: Pivot Points
The following are the pivot points for the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). Pivot High: 1965.610, Pivot Low: 1942.160. These were calculated using the DeMark method. It is generally believed to be bullish when price breaks out above the pivot high or bearish when price breaks down below the pivot low.
Fast Money position recap- First Moves: Joe likes NOV, Pete likes STZ, Karen likes GLNG.
Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Najarian Owns (AAPL) And Is Short (AAPL) Calls; Najarian Owns (CSCO) Calls, (NVDA) Calls: Najarian Owns (HCBK) Puts; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (JCP), (MO), (NOK), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (GLNG); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) Leaps
Finerman’s Firm Is Short British Pounds; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (XLF), (BBT), (COF), (SPG), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM).
Terranova Owns (RIMM), (AAPL), (IYT), (XLF), (KOL), (VLO), (SA), (GS), (POT), (FCX), (NOV), (X), (EOG), (INTC), (GOOG), (CME), (BNI), (SA), (YHOO), (SU); Terranova Is Short Crude Oil Time Spread (Short Dec. 2008, Long Dec. 2012); Terranova is Long Crude Oil (Dec. 2012).
Art Cashin saw a disconnect between oil prices moving up and the market moving up. He wants us to watch the market and how it responds to economic data or oil and commodity prices. The economic numbers to watch this week are the housing numbers and the market’s subsequent reaction to them. Europe is quiet for the week and trading could be thin and quiet for us this week as well. Optiondragon Leading Indicator Basket – LIB= UUP (dollar) + USO (inverse price related) + XLF (has been moving in lock step with this one) + IWM (small caps have been outerforming and leading lately , let’s see if this correlation holds) + (GOOG+ AAPL + RIMM) (tech leadership).
Pick plays with a high probability of success, have focus and patience, run technicals through supply and demand.
Great luck and Happytrading! Come visit us myhappytrading.com, our new home for traders and investors.
More fractals and patterns in nature just like patterns in the market, both are run on formulas.
Turbines at the Barrage de la Rance electric power generating station in France create a whirlpool in the Rance River.
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