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Premarket Analysis for 7/23- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Wednesday, July 23rd
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal’s “Fund Track” reported that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corp. (NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit…The wall Street Journal also reported that Andrew Cuomo, the New York state Attorney General, is preparing to file civil securities-fraud charges against UBS AG (UBS), possibly as early as this week. Sources said the lawsuit may include allegations of malfeasance by senior UBS executives…BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg reported that money manager John Paulson, the owner of Paulson & Co., is launching a hedge fund that will provide capital to financial firms which have been damaged by the housing crisis. Paulson, who wants to open the fund by December, used bets against the U.S. housing market to help him earn $3.7B in 2007…After U.S. lawmakers reached a deal on legislation to alleviate the housing recession, the House of Representatives will today vote on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Representative Barney Frank said that the package, which increases the likelihood Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will get the authority to inject capital into the two, is “fully acceptable,” Bloomberg reported…REUTERS: Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America’s 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. Reuters noted that SemGroup LP’s parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners (SGLP)…

Some banks consider selling their money management units-WSJ
The Wall Street Journal’s “Fund Track” reports that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corp. (NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit.

House is ready to vote on Fannie, Freddie rescue measure-Bloomberg
The U.S. House of Representatives is slated to vote today on a bailout plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), after members of Congress reached a deal on the legislation. House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, a Democrat, said the proposal is acceptable to the Department of the Treasury. The deal increases the chances that Congress will grant Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson the power to inject capital into the companies this week.

Saharan sun power could provide electricity to Europe-Guardian
Arnulf Jaeger-Walden of the European Commission’s Institute for Energy, speaking at the Euroscience Open Forum in Barcelona, says that solar power from the Sahara could one day generate enough solar energy to supply all of Europe with clean electricity and may also help cut Europe’s carbon emissions. In order to meet all of Europe’s energy needs, Jaeger-Walden says this would require the capture of just 0.3% of the light falling on the area’s deserts, adding that a new supergrid would allow countries like Denmark to export wind energy at times of surplus supply and import from other green sources.

As Spain pulls back on solar subsidies companies look to the exits-WSJ
For a number of years solar companies have flocked to Spain because of government subsidies. But beginning in October, Spain will put a cap on the amount of megawatts. A final decision is expected next month, reports the Wall Street Journal. “Everybody targeted Spain because of the tariffs. Now, everybody is doing an aboutface,” says Brion Tanous with Merriman Curhan Ford. Instead, companies are expected to move to markets in Greece, Italy, France and South Korea.

Apple’s Jobs says health is “fine”-NY Times
As concerns about his health have weighed on the company’s stock price, Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs has told a number of associates that talks of “ill health” have been “greatly exaggerated”. Jobs has reassured several people that, four years after a successful operation to treat pancreatic cancer, he is doing well and is cancer-free. Apple shares closed at $166.29 on Monday, opening lower and recovering on Tuesday at $162.02, a 2.6% drop.

Google said to be in final talks to buy Digg-TechCrunch
TechCrunch has heard from multiple sources that Google (GOOG) is in final talks to acquire Digg. The acquisition, which will put Digg under the Google News brand, is said to be in the $200M range. The sources believe it may be a few weeks before the deal closes, but say the two recently signed a letter of intent.

Oil trading losses push SemGroup into bankruptcy-Reuters
Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America’s 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. The company bought short crude futures positions, and was badly hurt when oil prices rose sharply. SemGroup LP’s parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners L.P. (SGLP).

Memc Electronic Mat-WFR: View risk/reward as favorable at current levels@AMTR
American Technology believes downside is limited at current levels with consensus estimates below guidance and the valuation depressed. Firm notes WFR reports after the close today.

Yahoo-YHOO: Company’s growth lags behind its peers, maintain Hold@GABE
After Yahoo reported that its Q2 EPS fell year-over-year, Gabelli notes that the company is growing more slowly than Google (GOOG) and Microsoft’s (MSFT) online division. However, the firm thinks that a deal with Microsoft could raise Yahoo’s value.

VMware-VMW: Expect shares to bottom in low $30’s, maintain Neutral@COWN

U.S. equity futures continue to be strong as crude oil falls
U.S. stock futures this morning continue to hold their gains as oil futures drop. The Department of Energy is scheduled to release its inventory data at 10:35 am ET. The survey is calling for a crude inventory draw-down of 600,000, a gasoline build-up of 200,000, and a distillate build-up of 2.5M. Before the oil data, crude continued its slide, losing $1.92 to $126.50 a barrel. Gold futures were also sharply down and the U.S. dollar rose against the yen, indicators of a rising risk appetite. The S&P 500 futures rose 8.30 points to 1,282 and the Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 12.8 points to 1,836. Dow industrial futures were up 46 points to 11,610.

Regions Financial-RF: Balance sheet to be impacted by NIM compression N-T@FBRC
FBRC decreased their 2008/09 EPS significantly with their price target reduced to $10 from $11. The firm does not believe there will be any positive catalysts in the future until there is an improve or stabilization in credit in the southeastern part of the country. Earnings are expected to be impacted negatively by continued credit deterioration, while in the N-T, share price appreciation will be limited. Reiterate Underperform rating.

Illumina-ILMN target raised to $125 from $108, reiterate Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank raised their target following the upside in the quarter and expects the stock to trade up 5%-10% today on the increased guidance.

Peabody Energy-BTU believes tight global supplies, strong demand to continue

BB&T-BBT says pension plan buys 2.45M shares of stock for approx $52.9M

Urban Outfitters-URBN: Due to strong business trends, buy on weakness@FBRC
FBRC believes positive catalysts for the stock will be comp data point on 8/7 and earnings call on 8/14. The firm has maintained their $38 target price and FY08/FY09 EPS estimates, which they believe are conservative, and also believes there is room for gross margin and ongoing SG&A improvement. Outperform rating. :

Baidu.com gains market share in China over Google-Dow Jones
According to research firm Analysys International, Baidu.com (BIDU) expanded its market share lead over Google (GOOG) in China during Q2.

AT&T says 3G iPhone sales double vs. prior launch after just 12 days.

Biogen Idec-BIIB target raised to $78 from $74, reiterate Buy@BOFA
Banc of America raised their estimates following the upside in the quarter and found the Tysabri results encouraging.

U.S. Educational Services upgraded to Positive from Neutral@LEHM

PNC Financial-PNC upgraded to Buy from Neutral@GSCO
Target to $80 from $72.

Wyeth-WYE reports Q2 EPS 91c vs. consensus of 87c
Reports Q2 revenue $5.9B vs. consensus of $5.69B. ales of Effexor also increased in the second quarter due primarily to price increases. ZOSYN(R) sales also increased in the quarter. These increases in net revenue were offset, in part, by declining Protonix sales due to ongoing generic competition.
Wyeth-WYE raises FY08 EPS $3.47-$3.55 vs. consensus of $3.45

Onyx Pharmaceuticals-ONXX downgraded to Underperform from Neutral@MLCO

thinkorswim Group-SWIM: Believe July looks like another record month@MERI
Merriman believes SWIM’s July is shaping up to be strong with options trading volume for the industry trending up about 30% from June. They think SWIM continues to outperform OptionXpress (OXPS) and recommends investors buy the stock ahead of its Q2 results.

Baidu.com-BIDU: Checks indicate a modest beat for Q2@RBCM
RBC Capital’s checks indicate a modest beat for to BIDU’s top and bottom line. The firm said BIDU was aggressive in adding partners and that TAC should continue to growth as a percentage of revenue. The firm expects Q3 guidance to be conservative given the current operating environment. Shares are Outperform rated

Biogen Idec-BIIB: Strong 2Q08 EPS upside on higher-than-expected revenues@BARD
BARD increased their 2008/09 EPS estimates and raised their price target to $67. The firm is concerned Avonex and Tysabri may be affected by L-T pressure from the competition of other developmental MS compounds and despite the near and intermediate term outlook improvement, the shares recent strength reflects this. Therefore, the firm is staying on the sidelines.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer said Oil is all that matters right now, and the price of oil is on the decline. Cramer said the market was up because of the decline in price of oil and gas. Investors shrugged off the earnings disappointments from tech and financial giants Apple (AAPL), Texas Instruments (TXN), SanDisk (SNDK) and American Express (AXP). “Oil is down to $128 a barrel and I think it is going to $120,” says Cramer. Cramer said he is predicting gasoline at $3.50 a gallon if oil prices fall to $120 a barrel. The last time oil was at $126 a barrel, the S&P 500, which represents the broadest view of the market, was at 1,403. That’s about 10% higher than the index is now. Cramer tells viewers, “We are 6.5% too low in the S&P as of this evening and market is heading up there.” Consumer companies such as Kimberly-Clark (KMB) are likely to benefit, he said, since that is exactly the kind of defensive play that big institutional investors like to put their money into. With lower oil and gas prices and the new-found health in some of the banks, Cramer says “This market is a buy.” Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a buy as natural gas prices go lower. Next, Cramer said Campbell Soup (CPB) is looking better, and is a possible recession-proof play. General Mills (GIS) and Kellogg (K) are at or near their 52-week high, which means Campbell looks cheap and institutional money could flood to the stock and raise its price. Cramer also advised a listener to sell Kraft (KFT) and recommended Tyson Foods (TSN). Then, Cramer said that there is no reason to believe that bad news at American Express (AXP) is bad news for JP Morgan (JPM) and other banks. “American Express has unfairly brought down all banks. Use it as an opportunity to buy,” he said. Cramer suggested Wachovia (WB), Bank of America (BAC), US Bancorp (USB) and JP Morgan as his four strong financial plays. MAD MAIL: Annaly Capital Mgmt (NLY), Cramer lost a of of money in the names and would not recommend it. Cramer suggested listeners look at Google (GOOG) as an attractive trade, in light of Yahoo’s (YHOO) weak earnings. And instead of Wachovia, consider US Bancorp for their trade. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) DIS; SPLS; TRLG. (Bearish - recommended selling) UAL; VE; BTU; ABD; ODP; CNB

Bush will sign housing bill into law, White House says-Reuters

Fast Money Position Recap: Jeff thinks T is a sell, Joe likes Gold Futures, Pete likes WMT long, Karen likes XLF as a quick short.
Najarian Owns (AAPL), (AMLN), (C), (CHK), (ETFC), (TSO), (ICO): Najarian Owns (CSCO) Calls, (MRK) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, (HUN) Calls; Macke Owns (GS), (WMT), (MSFT): Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (M); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (BBT), (WB), (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (SPY), (MDY); Finerman’s Firm Owns (HUN) Calls: Terranova Owns (BNI), (SA), (VLO), (RIMM), (CME), (FCX), (GOOG), (INTC), (IYT),  (XLF), (SU), (YHOO); Terranova Is Long September Crude Oil $154 Calls; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil $130 Puts; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil $130 Calls.

Financial longs paid off handsomely yesterday for our members as we went long BAC, USB, GS. The short squeeze in some of these names is amazing and were due. As i’ve said before the short financial trade was overcrowded and has been and still is unwinding due to sheer volume. Don’t believe me? Look at PNC. Anyone shorting PNC for the past 3 months has a position underwater. Demand has a strong advantage over supply right now thus these strong squeezes.


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