The market ended another volatile week with the Dow down 188 points, SPX losing 23.41 points, and Nasdaq sliding just 6.3 points. We monitored the market cautiously and faired pretty well, with not too many published trades:
GLD (95)
GLDHK, Aug 89 calls, at $7, +59%
MER ($28.6)
MERSF, July 30 puts, at $2.9, -4.9%
SVNT ($27.37)
UVPGE, July 25 calls, at $3.3, +46.6%
GS ($176.8)
GPYHQ, Aug 185 calls, at $5.4, -28.9%
MER ($30.27)
MERTF, Aug 30 puts, at $2.7, +5%
The trades left open were:
GLD ($95.2)
GLDHP, Aug 94 calls, at $3.9 (open)
Friday close: $4.2; unrealized gain/loss: +7.7%
MA ($259.1)
MALHY, Aug 280 calls, at $10.6 (open)
Friday close: $10.8; unrealized gain/loss: +1.9%
ENER ($69.5)
EQIHN, Aug 70 calls, at $6.8 (open)
Friday close: $5.8; unrealized gain/loss: -14.7%
DNA ($78.8)
DWNHO, Aug 75 calls, at $5.1 (open)
Friday close: $4.7; unrealized gain/loss: -7.8%
Last weekend, I said,
“Both SPX and Nasdaq look unhealthy. They are just riding the lower daily BB down; their daily MAs are curving down with sharper slopes. For the new week, the market looks still to be on the defensive side. SPX has already penetrated below the March support (1280). Nasdaq just closed below an important support and could be testing the March lows, around 2200, soon. The financials still look weak. Coals and steels got hammered last Wednesday, which forced a sharp turn on XME (metals and mining). The energy-related sectors such as XLE (energy) and OIH (oil services) also saw similar reverals. However, pure commodities are still going higher!”
The financials went down further and continued to cast shadows over the market. XME, XLE, OIH all went lower, although we saw some bounces near the end of the week. Among the pure commodities, USO (oil) jumped higher on Friday; GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) both broke out higher; UNG (natural gas), however, had a down week and was not able to break $64.
SPX
We looked at SPX through our first “HappyTrading Video Podcast”. So, I’ll just repost it here again.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq lost 18.77 points to close at 2239.08. Its daily MAs continued to slide. The MACD flattened.
The market is still in a very precarious position. SPX is trying hold on to 1240. Nasdaq tested 2200 on Friday and bounced back, but still closed under 2250. Any further downward push, we may see capitualtion on the market. VIX got close to 30 on Friday, as high as 29.44. Although it came down to close at 27.49, its momentum is still on the upside, and we may just see VIX above 30 next week. As mentioned in my video podcast yesterday, lots of earnings are going to come in next week. I think we’ll need more than a few good ones to turn this market around. Needless to say, I’m still being very careful. Let’s take a look at some individual sectors.
Sector Watch
XLF (financials)
XLF continued to slide below $20, and it’s still looking weak. Even GS is being dragged lower with the sector. Below $160, GS could break down. LEH lost more than 1/3 of its value last week, dropping from above $22 to $14.43! MA saw some bounces as it is going to be added to S&P 500.
USO (oil)
USO recorded a new all-time high on Friday at $119.17, as crude traded above $147/barrel. Heightened concerns over Israel and Iran pushed oil prices up once again. One thing to point out, though, the volumes on Thursday and Friday were not particularly high. USO came down to close at $117.39 on Friday. USO is starting to look a little bit like XME before that big 1 day drop. Let’s see how USO does Monday and Tuesday.
GLD (gold)
GLD broke higher last week on rising volume, and gold traded at near $965/ounce. I think gold could re-test $1000 from here. GLD has re-captured its daily upper BB and is pushing it open. SLV (silver) is showing a similar chart.
BTK (biotechs)
BTK has been trying to push higher. Its daily upper BB has opened up, and the daily MAs are starting to turn. Going above 770 could bring a breakout. CELG and AMGN have been particularly strong. I’m also finding OSIP looking interesting. DNA reports earnings after the market on Monday. Breaking above $78 would give DNA a lot of room for upside movements.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
Post a Comment