Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Eagles - Hotel California

From Briefing.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, July 1st
WALL STREET JOURNAL: In a cost cutting move, struggling automaker Chrysler said it will idle its St. Louis South minivan plant in October, and will reduce operations at its St. Louis North Dodge Ram pickup truck plant to one shift in September, the Wall Street Journal reported. About 2,400 people will lose their jobs at both plants…In an unprecedented move, the Justice Department is pressuring UBS (UBS), a foreign bank, for the names of wealthy U.S. client who used the bank to avoid paying taxes, reported the Wall Street Journal, and has sought a federal court order to proceed…NEW YORK TIMES: After learning Moscow authorities have refused to renew the work visas of BP Plc’s (BP) expatriate staff, the New York Times reported that the British oil company may be in danger of losing control of TNK-BP Holding, its Russian joint venture. If the top officials from the BP side of the venture, including the CEO and CFO, are forced to leave, TNK-BP will fall into the hands of its Russian partners…UK TIMES: In an upheaval aimed at preventing too much power from being exercised by the company’s chairman, UBS decided to replace four board directors in October. The governance model, which will separate the roles and responsibilities of the board and executive management, will reportedly come into play immediately and will allow the board to delegate the duties formerly allocated to the chairman’s office to board committees…

Metals & Mining: Estimates lowered for AA, CENX, & NEM@FBCO
Credit Suisse lowered estimates on AA, CENX, and NEM based on the differences between actual vs. preliminary metal prices, currencies, raw material costs, and company specific issues. All three stocks are Outperform rated.

MA: Recent weakness a buying opportunity@COWN
Cowen said weakness in MA based on AXP comments related to deteriorating credit quality and consumer spending concerns are overdone. Shares are Outperform rated.

Financials Breaking March Lows
On the heels of speculation about continuing issues at Lehman (LEH) and fresh problems at UBS AG (UBS) both stocks in the pre-market are below their March lows. If the behavior of the stocks is anything like that of the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJX) following its break, we could see an acceleration of downtrend. Those who are bullish might use the proximity to the lows, however, as an attempt to go long on a double-bottom play. In the absence of positive fundamentals this would be a pure relative price/mean reversion play if it were to happen. Risks are distinctly two-sided here. For LEH, support levels to watch as potential downside objective below the March low at $20.25 are at $20.06, $19.58, $19.25, $18.81, $18.50, $18.09, $17.81, $17.41. Resistance levels to watch as potential upside objectives above $20.25 are at $20.53, $21.00, $21.39, $21.75, $22.20. For UBS, support levels to to watch as potential downside objective below the March low at $19.73 are at $19.40, $19.10, $18.67, $18.30, $18.01, $17.73, $16.92, $16.57. Resistance levels to watch as potential upside objectives above $19.73 are at $20.04, $20.41, $20.72, $21.06, $21.34, $21.70.

JP Morgan Chase-JPM downgraded to In Line from Outperform@FPKI

Broadcom-BRCM: 2Q results are likely to be financially robust; target $36@FBRC
The firm finds the stock to be inexpensive and think the stock in the coming quarters will move closer to their $36 price target. 3Q outlook could generate upside results. Reiterate Outperform rating.

Microsoft tries new tact in search-Business Week
Trying to gain some traction, in search Microsoft (MSFT) is considering buying Powerset. Powerset is developing “semantic web” technology, which searches based on meaning and context. After a failed bid at Yahoo (YHOO) Microsoft hopes to gain on rival Google (GOOG) by adding unique capabilities. Supposedly Microsoft has offered more than $100M to acquire Powerset.

MF Global-MF removed from Focus List, maintain Overweight@JPMS
JP Morgan is concerned the company could lose some more high quality customers due to a lack of investor confidence. They lowered their estimates, but find the valuation cheap at current levels.

Energy/Natural Resources: Positive outlook on MLP subsector; Outperform@FBRC
ATN and LGCY continue to be the firm’s favorite companies, with FBRC believing within two years, ATN will be a $75+ stock due to the potential from Marcellus. At current levels, FBRC believes stock should be purchased in the MLP subsector given historic overhang from prior PIPEs dissipating and extremely attractive distribution yields. The firm increased target price to $30 from $28 for LGCY.

Focus Media-FMCN: Find risk/reward compelling at current levels@PIPR
Piper notes the company indicated that Q2 is tracking in line with the guidance at its analyst day. The firm maintains a Buy rating and $63 target.

Genentech-DNA: Expect to beat consensus and raise EPS guidance@RBCM
RBC Capital expects DNA to have an above consensus quarter driven by US sales of Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan. The firm raised its Q2 EPS estimate to 87c from 85c and 2008 estimate to $3.55 from $3.50. Shares are Outperform rated.

Schnitzer Steel-SCHN reports Q3 EPS $2.14 vs. consensus of $1.87
Reports Q3 revenue $972M vs. consensus $937.67M.

Markets expected to open lower as the third quarter begins; Crude oil over $143
Stocks are poised to open lower on the first day of trading in the third quarter. Crude oil once again is the catalyst to sell as the price hit $143.67 in overnight trading. Concerns about the damage to the economy caused by oil prices and where it will stop has kept buyers away. Today data about the economy will include the release of the ISM Manufacturing data, Construction Spending for May, and domestic vehicle sales for the June.

Handsets: Expect a re-acceleration in 2H08@COWN
Cowen expects a re-acceleration in 2H08 in handset growth due to: the 3G product cycle strength, higher operator handset subsidies, and faster deployment of 3G networks worldwide. The firm expects 2H08/1H08 growth to be above the Street’s estimate of 15% and believes that NOK & QCOM are the best positioned to benefit.

Forest Oil-FST target raised to $99 from $95, maintain Buy@SBSH
Citigroup values the company’s Haynesville Shale acreage at $4 per share.
Nice premarket jump.

Oceaneering-OII initiated with an Add, target $86@LYON

National Oilwell Varco-NOV coverage assumed with a Buy, target $92@SBSH

Cameron-CAM coverage assumed with a Buy from Hold@SBSH
Citigroup assumed coverage of CAM and upgraded the stock to Buy. Target $66.

Halliburton-HAL coverage assumed with a Buy, target $63@SBSH

NYX removed from Conviction Buy List, maintain Buy@GSCO

ARM removed from Conviction Buy List; maintain Buy@GSCO

GS initiated with an Overweight, target $205@MSCO
LEH initiated with an Overweight, target $31@MSCO
MER initiated with an Equal Weight, target $33@MSCO
BEN initiated with an Overweight, target $120@MSCO

UBS removed from from Europe 1 List@MLCO

Computers/Storage Q2 earnings preview: See upward bias to numbers@PACS
PacCrest says that based on robust seller activity at quarter-end, they see an upward bias to their Q2 estimates. The firm’s Top Picks are EMC (EMC), Brocade (BRCD), Data Domain (DDUP), and F5 Networks (FFIV)

SanDisk-SNDK: Advise caution into earnings report; estimates lowered@PACS
PacCrest is cutting estimates for Q2, 2008 and 2009 on continued weak NAND pricing and sell through. With the prospects for lower numbers, PacCrest believes further head count reductions are in the works and signal weakness may extend through 2H08. They rate SNDK a Sector Perform.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer predicted the next big move in stocks will come from the Medicare spending bill now working its way through Congress. The U.S. government will spend upwards of $454B on Medicare this year, up from just $371B in 2006. This means a windfall for many companies poised to take advantage of the huge government handouts that are about to take place, he said. He noted that long-term care hospitals benefited from last year’s bill, with stocks such as Kindred Healthcare (KND), up 16% in the weeks that followed. In-patient rehabilitation facilities also benefited. For example, Healthsouth (HLS), rallied 16% after the bill was announced. On the downside, companies such as the oxygen-and-dialysis providers nose-dived after funding for their operations were left out of the bill at the last minute. Cramer predicted that healthcare and medical reform companies will outperform every sector in the market with the possible exception of oil and gas in the coming quarter. Specifically, Cramer high-lighted Fresenius (FMS) which he says is poised to benefit from this year’s Medicare spending bill. Dialysis is one area Congress is expected to increase funding, and Fresenius will be the primary benefactor. The dialysis market is a duopoly between Fresenius and DaVita (DVA), which collectively control 60% of the U.S. market. Cramer said both Fresenius and DaVita are terrific companies, but he likes the larger Fresenius for its growth, international footprint and he calls it the “best in breed”. Cramer called Fresenius a $65 stock masquerading as a $54 stock and expects the company to earn $3.26 a share compared to the $3.10-a-share estimates for 2009. Next, Cramer said while both General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) look cheap in the single digits, it’s the bond holders, not the stock holders, who really control the company. Cramer said that both GM and Ford have simply borrowed more than they can repay, leaving the bondholders in control of their destiny. He said that despite their huge assets, GM has a negative book value and Ford’s book value is barely zero. Cramer said he wouldn’t own either company and extended the warning to shares of many of the ailing bank stocks as well. Then, Cramer welcomed Glen Post, chairman and CEO of CenturyTel (CTL) to discuss his company’s recent decision to increase its dividend ten-fold. Post said that after years of buying back shares, CenturyTel still had significant free cash flow. Post expects to see broadband services continue to be strong and expects CenturyTel to continue to prosper. Cramer commended Post for returning value to shareholders and told viewers to just start buying. SUDDEN DEATH: (Bullish) NKE; RIMM. (Bearish) GLW. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) MA; ACN; REXX; CHK; AMAT; FSLR; ED. (Bearish) AOB; V; TTM; YGE; BJRI; CSIQ.

U.S. equity futures continue pointing to a lower open as Mideast tensions rise
U.S. equity futures continue to point to a lower open as fears of higher oil prices and Middle East tensions have investors on edge. Bloomberg this morning cited an ABC News unidentified Pentagon official who said Israel is increasingly likely to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities this year. They also said that the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff was in Israel last weekend for meetings with Israeli military leaders. This report comes on the heels of yesterday’s comments from Iran which said that any attack against them would cause them to disrupt the oil shipping lanes. The price of crude oil is up more than $2 a barrel this morning to $142.52.

Fast Money Position Recap- First Moves: Joe likes GIS, Guy likes T, Karen likes GLNG, Pete likes ELN.
Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (AMLN), (ANR), (NOK), (NUE), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO), (HD); Najarian Owns (MER) Puts, (WFMI) Puts, (HBC) Puts; Najarian Owns (MYGN) Calls, (SLB) Calls, (WM) Calls, (WLT) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (FLS), (GLNG); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (GE) And (GE) Puts; Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (TWX), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman’s Firm Owns (HUN) Calls; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Terranova Owns (BNI), (YHOO), (LUV), (CME), (GOOG), (SU), (INTC), (FXC), (IYT),  (XLF), (FCX); Terranova Owns Dollar Index Futures.
Terranova is chief alternatives strategist at Phoenix Investment Partners;; Phoenix Investment Partners Ltd. Owns (RWX), (DBC), (DBV), (IGE), (AAI), (ALK), (AMR,) (APA), BP plc, British Airways plc, (CHK), (CVX), (COP), (CAL), (DAL), ENI SPA, (XOM), Gazprom, (HA), (HES), (HOC), (HSE), (JBLU), Lukoil, (MRO), (MUR), (OXY), Petrobras Intl Fin, Petro-Canada, (PBR), Petroleos De Venezuela, (QAN), (RJET), Royal Dutch Shell plc A Shares, (SKYW), (LUV,) (SU), (TSO), Texaco Capital, Total SA, (UAUA), (LCC), (VLO).

Geopolitical news is making the headlines this morning as rumors of an Israel strike on Iran nuclear facilities makes the rounds. If Iran is struck the price of oil will jump horrendously higher and the markets would go into free fall. Where there is smoke there is fire and Iran is still building and developing their nuclear capabilities. There has to be an end game here and it either ends diplomatically or in war. I prefer peace as always but must prepare for all outcomes. The financials are getting hit again and I will be looking for high probability shorts but will be aware of an upcoming technical bounce coming up in the next week. Having a portfolio blanced with shorts and longs has been shown to be very profitable in this market. If you are having a difficult time shorting or finding a short, look to the Ultra Shorts for “long” ideas or short the market to balance your long positions which should be exposed to the sectors which are working lately. Being patient and staying in cash is a great idea too until further clarity arrives. Have focus, pick plays with a high probability of success and stay positive. Great Luck and great trading!