Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Maroon 5 - Wake Up Call, DIRECTORS CUT

From Briefng.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Friday, June 20th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal reported that in an attempt to move past its takeover battle with Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO) is planning a reorganization. People familiar with the matter said executives are discussing a plan to centralize numerous product groups into a global-product organization. Details may be announced next week…The Wall Street Journal also reported that an internal feud at Live Nation (LYV) over strategy may soon be resolved, as the concert promoter is reportedly negotiating the exit of chairman Michael Cohl…THE AUSTRALIAN: A recommendation by an Australian commission to open Rio Tinto’s (RTP) Pilbara railway to third parties could cost $30B if the idea is implemented, Rio contended and the Australian reported. The National Competition Commission, which advises Australian governments on infrastructure issues, has suggested that Fortescue Metals Group be given access to certain rail lines operated by Rio Tinto…ENGADGET: A joint investigation by CBC News and the Canadian Press found one-third of people shot by Tasers (TASR) reportedly required some medical attention, Engadget reported…TECH CRUNCH: TechCrunch confirmed that Joshua Schachter, the founder of delicious, will resign from Yahoo!. Sources believe the near-stalled development of the new version of delicious may have played a part in his resignation…

ESLR: Positive on contract wins and lower costs@PACS
PacCrest says management clearly outlined costs target for the next six years and displayed confidence at its analyst day. They see the backlog raised to $1.7B for the years 2008 to 2013, based on the addition of two new contracts totaling $600M. PacCrest reiterates their Outperform rating with a $17 target.

Steel producers invest in mines to protect their interests-WSJ
Steel producer merges with themselves are out. Instead, reacting to higher costs for raw materials, they’re investing in iron ore and coal mining companies as they battle mining companies for control, reports the Wall Street Journal. “Ensuring a reliable source of raw-material supply is more important than ever,” says ArcelorMittal CEO Lakshmi Mittal. He has $5B ready to pick up companies to cover his needs over the next few years. “The structure of the steel industry is changing,” says Peter Fish, head of MEPS International, a London steel research and consulting firm. “It used to be that raw materials accounted for 15% of selling prices. They now account for about 50% of selling prices.”

GOOG estimates raised to reflect secular trends in search@CSTI
Collins Stewart believes secular trends in search are more than offsetting the economic headwinds and believes GOOG’s June quarter is trending well thus far. The firm raised GOOG’s 2008 estimate to $20.55 from $20.46 and reiterate a Buy rating with a $615 target.

X estimates raised well above consensus@JPMS
JP Morgan raised X’s 2008 estimate to $19.50 from $14 (consensus is $15.28) and 2009 estimate to $24 from $13.80 (consensus is $17) to reflect higher steel selling prices. The firm finds the valuation attractive at current levels and maintains an Overweight rating.

Rumors Merrill Lynch to issue profit warning hurting Euro bank stocks-Reuters
A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman declined to comment on the market rumors.

Financials: Estimates and targets lowered@MLCO
Merrill lowered Large-Cap Regional Bank estimates citing increased credit loss estimates and potential capital raises. The firm lowered estimates on average by 22% for 2008 and 19% for 2009. The analyst believes banks are now in a capitulation mode and sees potential dividend cuts from BAC, RF, STI, and WB.

IMCL: Believe Erbitux recommendation in lung cancer is likely@SBSH
After speaking to a key opinion leader involved with NCCN Guidelines for Lung Cancer, Citigroup believes Erbitux is likely to receive the NCCN recommendation. The firm maintains a Buy rating o IMCL shares.

U.S. equity futures point to a lower open; Financial sector concerns grow
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open as concerns over the financial sector continue to hang over the market. The price of crude oil fell yesterday and allowed for a modest advance in the averages despite bad news in the financial sector. Now crude is up more than $2. There’s a meeting this weekend in Saudi Arabia for oil producers where the amount of production will be discussed. The hope is for a solution to the high price of oil, and to ease concerns over soaring energy prices.

CAG: Continue to see upside in shares, remains a top pick@SBSH
Citigroup thinks CAG’s Q4 results will mark an inflection point into strong FY09 results. The stock remains a top pick at Citigroup and they keep a Buy rating on the name.

Brokers: Recommend buying Morgan Stanley and Lehman@SBSH
Citigroup thinks the more normal client flows in May continued into June and recommends buying Morgan Stanley (MS) and Lehman (LEH) now that assets have been shed. The firm sees near-term upside in LEH with shares below tangible book and believes MS is well positioned.

Fertilizer: Estimates and targets raised for POT, TRA, CF, MOS and AGU@MLCO
Merrill raised estimates and price targets for POT, TRA, CF, MOS and AGU citing higher fertilizer prices. The firm raised POT’s price target to $300 from $260, TRA’s to $64 from $61, CF’s to $240 from $190, MOS’s to $215 from $180, and AGU’s to $155 from $115. Note the firm initiated IPI with a Buy rating.

PCP coverage resumed with a Buy, target $130@BOFA

NFX target raised to $88 from $80, maintain Buy@BPSG
Broadpoint raised their target to reflect their increased estimates and potential upside from Woodford.

C estimates lowered following CFO comments, maintain Buy@LTCO
Ladenburg Thalmann lowered their 2008 estimate to (36c) from (19c) and 2009 estimate to $2.46 from $2.70 after the company’s CFO suggested write-downs in the legacy portfolio will be quite high. The firm thinks another multi billion mark down seems likely due to a widening of spreads and is disappointed by how C dispersed the news yesterday since the conference call was not open to everybody.

ICE initiated with a Buy, target $150@UBSW

IPI initiated with a Buy@MLCO

MBIA Inc-MBI comments on rating downgrade by Moody’s
The company said, “We are disappointed to learn of Moody’s decision and baffled by their analysis. We believe the fundamentals of the Company support a higher rating. Moody’s states in its release, for instance, that ‘…the group remains strongly capitalized, estimated to be consistent with a Aa level rating, and benefits from substantial embedded earnings in its existing insurance portfolio.’ Yet that fact would seem to support sustaining a Aa rating while satisfying Aaa minimum capital requirements. With $16 billion in claims-paying resources, as the Company has made clear in numerous public statements, we have more than enough capital to meet obligations to policyholders. This is an issue of ratings and not solvency.”

comScore-SCOR releases May 2008 U.S. search engine rankings
comScore released its monthly comScore qSearch analysis of the U.S. search marketplace. In May 2008, Americans conducted 10.8B core searches, with Google Sites increasing its market share slightly. In May, Google Sites’ (GOOG) share of core searches reached 61.8%, up from 61.6% the previous month. Yahoo! Sites (YHOO) ranked second with a 20.6% share, up from 20.4% the prior month, followed by Microsoft Sites (MSFT) 8.5%, AOL LLC (TWX) 4.5%, and Ask Network (IACI) 4.5%.

Research in Motion-RIMM volatility Elevated at 58 into EPS
RIMM closed at $147.22. RIMM is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on June 25. Morgan Keegan say’s “we expect another strong quarter from RIMM, driven by $99 price points and successful launches of the CDMA curve.” RIMM July option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Fast Money position recap- First moves: Jeff likes JAH, Guy likes AAPL, Joe likes AMZN, Pete likes JNPR.
Macke Owns (INTC), (MSFT), (HAS), (WMT), (DIS); Adami Owns (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (AGU), (BTU); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (ANR), (BHI), (CHK), (ENER), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF), (HPQ); Najarian Owns (SD) Calls; Terranova Owns (FXC), (IYT), (XLF), (YHOO), (LUV), (GOOG), (CME), (FCX), (SU), (BNI),  (INTC); Terranova Is Long 2008 December Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short 2009 December Crude Oil.

X getting an upgrade could push shares higher as well as other steel plays (RS, CLF) although it will be swimming against the market tide. Financials look like they are starting off the wrong foot. Fertilizer plays look good to start after the across the board upgrade. Coals could see a bounce- ACI, ANR, etc. Shale plays could see some positive reaction to oil jumping again. Pick plays with a high probability of success and good luck and great trading.