Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Nelly Furtado –Say it Right

From Briefing.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Thursday, June 19th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Long Island, NY’s Astoria Financial Corp (AF) has found a novel way to reduce the number of its nonperforming loans by changing its internal policy on when mortgages are classified on its books as troubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. By counting home loans as non performing when the borrower misses at least three payments, not two, Astoria reduced its non-performers to $69M from $106M in three months… The Wall Street Journal also reported that the indictments of Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi, two former Bear Stearns hedge-fund managers, are expected to cite a personal e-mail suggesting the funds were “toast,” four days before they told investors they had little to worry about. JP Morgan (JPM) has said it will cover the legal costs of the fund managers…Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is set to reorganize its printer unit. The Wall Street Journal said that the unit’s five business units will be cut down to three to become more efficient at adapting to a marketplace in which consumers are relying less on printing…FINANCIAL TIMES: According to people close to the situation, Anheuser-Busch’s (BUD) board of directors is planning to meet this week to discuss the $46B bid from rival brewer InBev…

The Bear Stearns case: When a hedge fund is secretly called “toast”-WSJ
The case against two soon to be indicted former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers, Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi, may hinge on an email between them that said they thought the hedge funds were in trouble all the while presenting a positive united front to investors, reports the Wall Street Journal. Now owned by J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), the Bear executive’s email described the bond securities they invested in–the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund and a similar fund–as “toast,” and it eventually cost investors $1.B, helping to set off the worldwide credit crisis.

3G iPhone suppliers expected to see revenue increases-DigiTimes
According to a report in Chinese-language Commercial Times, Taiwan component suppliers of Apple’s (AAPL) 3G iPhones are expected to, beginning in the third quarter of this year, see their revenues strengthen substantially. Sources at component suppliers indicated that total shipments of the iPhones are likely to top 10M units in Q3.

New wave of offshore drilling-NY Times
Alberto Guimaraes, an executive at Petrobas (PBR), says, “Almost 100 percent of the oil companies are constrained in their investment program because there is no rig available.” As a result drilling costs have soared and created a boom of drill-ship construction. This could lead to renewed offshore oil exploration that would bring more supplies to the oil market and push prices down.

AAPL’s iTunes Store tops over 5B songs sold.

POT: Estimates and price target raised@RBCM
RBC Capital raised POT 2008 EPS estimate to $12.26 from $9.83 and 2009 to $21.33 from $15.02 based on higher fertilizer assumptions. Target to $340 from $300. Shares are Outperform rated.

ICE: See buying opportunity at current levels@JPMS
JP Morgan thinks now is a good time to put new money into ICE as they believe volumes are very strong and that ICE Clear Europe will drive consensus estimates higher. The firm thinks the political risks are manageable and reiterates an Overweight rating with a $180 target.

Agriculture: Estimates and price targets adjusted for CF, MOS, and POT@FBCO
Credit Suisse expects higher fertilizer demand on a global basis for 2009. The firm lowers CF 2008 EPS to $14.02 from $14.62 due to higher natural gas and sulfer prices but raises 2009 EPS to $18.18 from $14.21 on higher nitorogen and phosphate prices. CF target to $180 from $165. For MOS, the firm lowered 2008 EPS estimate to $4.29 from $4.50 on higher natural gas and sulpher prices and raised 2009 to $11.60 from $8.02 on phosphorous and potash prices. MOS price target to $195 from $1.55. Lastly, POT 2008 EPS estimate was raised to $11.30 from $10.50 and 2009 EPS to $19.13 from $12.00 on stronger potash, phosphorous, and nitrogen prices. POT target to $280 from $210.

GOOG: comScore data shows fractional market share gains@PIPR
Piper notes comScore Google market share in May increased sequentially from 61.6% to 61.8%. They expect market gains to continue and maintain a Buy rating on the stock.

MON to acquire Semillas Cristiani Burkard
Monsanto Company has agreed to acquire Marmot, S.A., which operates Semillas Cristiani Burkard, a privately-held seed company headquartered in Guatemala City, Guatemala. Once completed, the acquisition will build on Monsanto’s corn business leadership and enable it to offer farmers in Central American countries broader access to corn seed varieties. The transaction will be completed as soon as practical. Additional terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

GOOG July volatility Elevated at 40 into EPS & Outlook
GOOG closed at $562.38. GOOG is expected to report Q2 EPS in early July. Smith Barney reiterated its Buy rating and $630 price target on GOOG today. GOOG July option implied volatility is at 40 is below its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

MA partners with Obopay for mobile payment service
MasterCard announced an agreement with Obopay, Inc. to offer a fully-integrated on-demand person-to-person mobile payment service in the United States. The service, offered via MasterCard MoneySend, will give new and existing MasterCard issuing customers the ability to provide an innovative mobile payments service to their MasterCard cardholders on all credit, debit and prepaid MasterCard-branded products.

AGU coverage reinstated with a Neutral from Outperform@FBCO
Credit Suisse said E-Agrium has run into a few snags and the UAP acquisition benefits will not be apparent until next season. Target $128.

FFIV: Checks suggest Q3 is on track to meet or beat@PACS
Pacific Crest’s checks with resellers indicate FFIV is on track to meet or beat Q3 consensus estimates. The firm believes the company’s fundamentals are improving and raised their target to $38 from $30. Shares remain Outperform rated.

ACI anticipates record earnings in FY08. Slides presentation.

WMT: Estimates and target raised@THNK
ThinkPanmure raised WMT estimates and price target to $72 from $68 citing the company’s reduced capex estimate and increased sales. The firm raised its Q2 EPS estimate to 83c from 81c and 2008 EPS estimate to $3.53 from $3.50. Target to $72 from $68.

AAPL: AT&T subsidy makes competing with iPhone difficult@OPCO
Oppenheimer’s analysis suggests that AT&T (T) is providing a subsidy of $325 to iPhones sold in its stores, about $125 higher than normal for telecom companies. This high subsidy makes competing with iPhone difficult, the firm believes, and they maintained their Outperform rating on Apple, as they are more confident that the company will meet its iPhone goals.

ENER 4.71M share Secondary priced@72.00; mgrs FBCO & UBSW

CMP target raised to $95 from $85, reiterate Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank raised their target to reflect the price hike in MOP (muriate of potash), which is driving prices higher for SOP (sulfate of potash). They expect CMP’s earnings to benefit from the latest price increase. :

GOOG display advertising opportunity is ‘very large,’ reiterate Buy@SBSH
Citigroup believes GOOG’s display advertising opportunity is “very large” and estimates that every 1% share gain in the global Display ad market should equate to $200M in incremental 2009 revenue. The firm reiterates a Buy rating and $630 target on GOOG shares.

FST: Maintain Buy following meetings with management@BOFA
Banc of America believes FST is one of the best investment opportunities in the E&P space.

RIMM: Expect upside to the quarter and guidance@BOFA
Banc of America expects RIMM to post upside to the quarter and guidance when it reports on June 25 as carriers continue to market Smartphones. They expect a strong product cycle in the second half of 2008 and reiterate a Buy rating on the stock.

Oil Services Sector upgraded to Attractive from Neutral@GSCO
Goldman upgraded the Oilfield Services Sector citing drilling activity trends and earnings growth. The firm sees more EPS upside to North American names: HAL, HP, NBR.

RDC initiated with a Buy, target $70@JSLC
Jesup & Lamont cites strong international jackup rates and increasing demand for contractors for their Buy rating.

Plains Ex & Prod-PXP and Occidental Petroleum-OXY subsidiary enter agreement
Plains Exploration & Production Company and a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corporation have entered into an agreement with an undisclosed third party to acquire 11,500 acres immediately adjacent to PXP’s existing Piceance Gas Basin assets.

Microsoft to acquire Navic Networks-TechCrunch
TechCrunch reports that Microsoft (MSFT) is slated to acquire Navic Networks, a company that delivers interactive ads across cable TV networks. A source close to the matter said that the purchase price was somewhere between $200M and $300M, though the companies did not comment. Navic was likely attractive to Microsoft as TV represents the majority of advertising spending, and the software giant will need to get into this space if it wants advertising to become a significant source of its revenues.

Brokers: Estimates lowered for LEH and MS, raised for GS@SBSH
Citigroup lowered their estimates for Lehman (LEH) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to reflect the current quarter’s results and challenging fixed income environment, and cut MS’s target price to $65 from $70. However, they raised their estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS) on the company’s better than expected Q2 results.

DNA initiated with a Buy, target $83@DBAB
Deutsche Bank sees limited downside and the potential for significant upside if Avastin works in adjuvant colon cancer.

AAPL coverage assumed with a Buy, target $225@THNK
ThinkPanmure recommends take advantage of recent weakness to build core positions. Target to $225 from $195.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer noted that while oil have risen 30% from $100 to $130 a barrel, the large integrated oil companies have barely moved. The shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose only 1%. BP (BP) was up only 2.4% and Marathon Oil (MRO) was up only 1.6%. Cramer says big oil just cannot take advantage of the higher oil prices because they either just can’t drill for enough oil, or they expected oil prices to retreat and hedged their bets. Some signed contracts with foreign governments that backfired. That hasn’t been the case, he emphasized, with oil stocks that have natural gas exposure. Once again proclaiming 2008 the year of natural gas, he provided a laundry list of stocks which are now up an average of 33.8%. They include XTO, SWN and EP. He also recommended UPL, APA, APC and CHK. Cramer said all of these companies share a common theme: They are constantly on the move, acquiring assets and drilling for more and more oil and natural gas. Cramer noted that typically, the ratio between oil and gas is 6:1. Using that historic ratio, natural gas could go as high as $23, but Cramer is sticking to his earlier estimates of just $16 for the commodity. Switching gears, Cramer also recommended what he called the “twice blessed” fertilizer stocks, which are benefiting from both a worldwide food shortage and increased demand for ethanol production. He noted Mosaic (MOS), Agrium (AGU) and Potash (POT) as continued strong buys. Since he first recommended these names on Oct. 31, 2005, Mosaic is up 1120%, Agrium up 419%, and Potash up 773%.

MS: Estimates and target lowered@GSCO
Goldman lowered MS estimates following the Q2 report highlighting the weak capital markets, proprietary trading losses, and weak customer activity. Target to $50 from $57. The firm remains positive on MS’s valuation. Shares are Buy rated.

ANR: Estimates and price target raised@MSCO
Morgan Stanley raised ANR estimates citing higher coal prices. Target to $120 from $100. Shares are Overweight rated.

BTU: Estimates and target raised@MSCO
Morgan Stanley raised BTU estimates on higher coal prices. Price target to $95 from $80. Shares are Overweight rated.

AGU: Estimates and price target raised@RBCM
RBC Capital raised AGU 2008 EPS estimate to $8.31 from $7.06 and 2009 to $10.91 from $8.31 based on higher fertilizer assumptions. Target to $140 from $115. Shares are Outperform rated.

Pre-Market Movers: Ahead of the Bell from flyonthewall.com
Volume interest this morning is concentrated in the Health Insurers and Managed-Care groups. This is as a result of a warning on full-year results by Coventry Health (CVH) after market close yesterday. Coventry Health (CVH) is trading down (-21.2%) on the news but is not the volume leader. UnitedHealth (UNH) is the leader on volume, trading down (-9.06%) in sympathy with CVH. Aetna (AET) is trading down (-4.92%). Humana (HUM) is trading down (-4.95%). Wellpoint (WLP) is trading down (-5.48%). On the plus side Evergreen Solar (ESLR) is the volume leader, trading up +11.6% after the company reported signing two contracts worth $600M last night after market close. Usana (USNA) is trading up +8.62% after it reported much better than expected earnings last night following the regular session. The stock was most advanced until a few minutes ago, having traded up as much as +14%. Royale Energy Inc (ROYL) is on the most active and advanced list which is a rare appearance. We see no news this morning moving shares but they are trading up +2.75%. Solarfun Power (SOLF) is trading up +2.12% in sympathy with ESLR. XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is trading down (-4.14%). American Int’l (AIG) just crossed into the most actives, trading up +2.79% after it was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup. Chesapeake (CHK) also just crossed the list, trading up +2.48% after a positive mention last night on Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”.

Fast Money position recap- First Moves: Jeff likes NKE, Guy likes CHK, Joe likes WFC, Pete likes XTO. Macke Owns (INTC), (MSFT), (WMT); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BHI), (ENER), (MS), (TSO), (XLF), (XTO), (CHK), (HPQ), (MYGN); Pete Najarian Owns (RF) Puts; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (NUE), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Terranova Owns (XLF), (YHOO), (LUV), (FXC); Terranova Is Long Dec 2008 Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short Dec 2009 Crude Oil.

The fertilizer plays (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, CMP) have and will continue to be strong, buying the dips is the theme. The coals (ANR, MEE, CLF, CNX, WLT, ICO, FDG, JRCC, ACI, BTU, BUCY, TCK) have and will continue to be strong and look good to buy the dips as well. Both sectors are are still in a a bullish technical and fundamental phase with long term visibility. The oil services, E&P energy plays and steel are also in that bullish category. Bearish is the financials and healthcare. Market looks technically bearish still as we are still in a bear market but these pockets of strength cannot be denied due to strong global demand factors. Stay focused, pick plays with a high probability of success. Good Luck and great trading.