Wang’s Happy Trading

The market had a good start, but, contiued to drift lower until the close. GS reported its earnings this morning, and, again it beat the estimates! GS had an early jump, opening $3 higher than yesterday’s close. But, since it has gone up so much in the past couple of trading sessions (up $20 from last Thursday), we immediately saw profit-taking after the open. As GS slid, so did the rest of the financial sector; and, as the financial sector got weaker, so did the overall market.

The solar plays were strong in the morning, with CSIQ soaring to a new all-time high of $49.24, after it raised its 2008 sales outlook. CSIQ shares closed at $47, up +10.69% for the day. FSLR also jumped in the morning, trading as high as $288.38. We took the opportunity to lock in profits on the July 300 calls that we bought last Friday for a +41.6% gain:
HappyTrading
Posted June 17, 2008 at 7:48 am | Permalink (Edit)
FSLR ($285)
HJQGA, rest out at $16 (probably still early)

These options traded as high as $17, but, closed at $14.33.

The agriculture stocks have been making new highs day after day, after day! POT, MON, CF, MOS, and AGU all recorded new all-time highs today! Check out this daily chart on MOS:

Since 5/28, it has risen from about $115 to now $$161, about $45 in 3 weeks! That’s about +39%!! Now, that’s a beautiful chart! CF and POT have also seen similar patterns. We took an intraday play on MON today and cashed out near the day high with a +25% gain:
HappyTrading
Posted June 17, 2008 at 10:55 am | Permalink (Edit)
MON ($143.3)
MFPGH, out at $10 (for now)

These options traded as high as $10.2, but, closed at $9.4.

The amazing thing with this sector is that it has been going up steadily regardless of what the overall market was doing. Some of these high flyers may need to do a little breathing soon and let off some steam, but, they might not be done. So, we’ll continue to monitor these plays.

Let’s take a look at the overall market. The Dow ended down 108.78 points; SPX slid 9.21 points; and Nasdaq lost 17.05 points:

The techs were weak today with SOX (semiconductors) being down 1.53%. XLF (financials) lost 2.92%, while HGX (housing) slid 1.72%. GLD (gold) crept higher. USO (oil) and UNG (natural gas) were both slightly lower. OIH (oil services), however, added +2.1$. MOO (agriculture) jumped +2.58%. FXI (Chinese ADRs) slipped 0.5%.

SPX

SPX was down 9.21 points and closed at 1350.93. It closed below its daily MAs and the 1360 support. The MACD dropped.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq lost 17.05 points to close at 1457.73. It also closed below its daily MAs. The MACD was flat.

Well, GS reported better-than-expected, but, did not receive cheers from the investors, at least not yet. After rising $20 in a few trading sessions, it seemed that profit-taking was appropriate. XLF dropped back below $23. This was not good for the overall market. VIX closed up today, above that 21 mark that I talked about in my Market Forecast this weekend. Tomorrow, we have oil inventories, which could push the market in either direction. Energy stocks and oil services stocks do seem to be staging for breakouts, as both XLE and OIH recorded solid gains today. These don’t necessarily trade in congruence with the crude price. I’ll play things cautiously in the morning and see how USO and VIX react to the oil data tomorrow.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™