Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Coldplay— Viva la Vida, Live MTV Movie Awards 2008

From Briefing.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, June 10th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: UBS (UBS) won’t comment on write-down estimates, but according to the Wall Street Journal, investors are expecting it as prices for mortgage securities have significantly gotten worse over the past several weeks as evidenced by Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH) profit warnings…Yesterday Lehman’s stock fell 8.7% as the firm announced a projected $2.8B second quarter loss and a $6B capital raise. Options activity indicated a lessening volatility, the Wall Street Journal reported, a sign that perhaps the worst may be over…FINANCIAL TIMES: According to a person familiar with the matter, the Financial Times reported that China’s Qingdao Haier has approached investment banks to advise it on a bid for General Electric’s (GE) appliance business…NEW YORK TIMES: A brief filed by plaintiffs in a shareholder lawsuit against Yahoo! (YHOO) and its directors claimed that an employee severance plan put in place to protect workers after a merger with Microsoft (MSFT) should be repealed immediately. The New York Times reported that the plaintiffs believe the plan could skew the outcome of a proxy battle between Yahoo! and Carl Icahn for control of the company…

In Australia, coal-seam gas is the next big energy play-WSJ
Australia’s hottest commodity is coal-seam gas, known as CSG, and it’s about to become an important export, according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard in Asia”. “It’s moved from something that was only of interest to Australian minnows to something that’s of international interest,” says Graham Bethune, CEO of consulting group Energy Quest.

Bernanke sees inflation risks rising-FT
The risk of a “substantial downturn” in the U.S. economy has lessened in the past month, but inflation pressures are increasing, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last night. “The Federal Open Market Committee will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations,” said Bernanke, in remarks that will probably be seen as an indication that the Fed may be preparing to increase its main interest rate.

At Goldman Sachs, how’s their risk situation?-WSJ
In the Wall Street Journal’s “Comment from breakingviews”, the question is: How is Goldman Sachs Group (GS) holding up as many of their competitors have been clobbered by the credit crisis? Their mortgage business was smaller than most, its businesses are diverse, and their 2007 revenue was $46B. Protection enough if write-downs need to be taken. The bigger question is about leverage and risk. Can Goldman continue its good results? There are no guarantees, but now regulators could ask brokerage firms to up their capital while lowering further their leverage. If that happens earnings will suffer as shareholders get diluted. And that affects Goldman like everyone else.

YouTube to allow video creators to sell own ads-Silicon Alley Insider
The Silicon Alley Insider has learned that Google’s (GOOG) YouTube will allow video creators to sell their own ads on the site. This move may make YouTube more attractive for video producers, where they will have a bigger audience and may allow some to tap bigger brand advertisers. According to a source, the “do-it-yourselfers” will sell ads for at least $15 CPM, which is less than the going rate for professional content, but more for Web content without a targeted niche. The video producers must also commit to selling a minimum of $10,000 per campaign, or nearly 670,000 impressions at $15 CPM.

FCL initiated with a Buy, target $84@DAVA

AAPL: Subsidy change may reflect decreasing leverage@GABE
After Apple announced that it had signed carrier agreements without iPhone revenue sharing provisions, Gabelli thinks the change may indicate that Apple has less negotiating leverage outside the U.S. and is facing tougher smartphone competition. The firm maintained their Hold rating, citing stronger competition, consumer weakness, and valuation.

BRCM: Cautious near-term, would not chase shares@PACS
PacCrest says challenges remains with BRCM’s cellular baseband technologies and in other areas of the company’s integrated device roadmap. While PacCrest believes the downside is limited in the shares, they would only add to positions below $25. They believe the 65nm product portfolio acceleration will continue and should become larger percentage of sales exiting 2008. PacCrest maintains their Outperform and $30 target.

AAPL: iPhone sales will jump in 2H08@NEED
After Apple announced that the 3G iPhone will be available for $199, Needham maintained their estimates for the company and maintained their Strong Buy rating

AAPL: iPhone is poised to become mass-market product@OPCO
Oppenheimer believes the $199-$299 price range for the iPhone will create very significant elasticity in demand for the product, and they raised their iPhone unit estimates for 2008 and beyond. The firm would use any weakness as a buying opportunity, and they reiterated their Outperform rating.

Oil price forecast raised@SBSH
Citigroup raised its oil forecast for 2008 to $117/bbl from $95/bbl, 2009 to $122/bbl from $88/bbl, and its long-term estimate to $100/bbl from $75/bbl. The firm still sees near-term risk to the upside and does not view the current situation as a “bubble.” As a result of the higher forecast, the firm upgraded RDS.A to Buy from Hold and BP to Hold from Sell. The analyst also raised its price targets for Buy rated MRO to $79 and OXY to $112.

JASO initiated with a Buy, target $30@BPSG
Broadpoint said JASO is the low-cost producer in a commodity industry with a secure low-cost poly position.

AAPL: Believe impact of iPhone price cuts will be positive@PIPR
After attending Apple’s WWDC conference, Piper believes that the company’s decision to cut the entry-level price of the iPhone and eliminate revenue sharing with partners is positive. Piper believes that higher unit volumes will more than offset carrier subsidies and they are more confident in their forecast for 45M iPhone sales in 2009. They maintained their Buy rating.

AAPL: Target to $234 from $202, reiterate Overweight@LEHM
Lehman is positive on AAPL’s reduced price for the 3G iPhone and its ability to drive multiple revenue streams. Shares are Overweight rated.

Goodrich Petroleum-GDP target raised to $66 from $52, reit Buy@JEFF
Jefferies believes the company’s Cotton Valley/James Lime asset base will allow it to increase its production and cash flow for the foreseeable future.

AAPL: Target to $287 from $248, remain aggrssive buyers@SBSH
Citigroup is believes AAPL’s decision to move from a revenue share model to a traditional subsidy model for the 3G iPhone is a major positive. Shares are Buy rated.

AAPL: Recommend using weakness as a buying opportunity@SBSH
Citigroup reiterated their Buy rating and $248 target.

Gazprom says oil price to reach $250 in ‘foreseeable future’-Bloomberg

U.S. equity futures point to a lower open resulting from Bernanke’s comments
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open. The U.S. markets are following the lead of the Asian markets which fell overnight after Fed Chairman Bernanke made comments which ignited fears of an interest rate hike. In a speech last night Bernanke said that the risk of inflation has increased with rising oil and other commodities prices. He also said that he believes the chances of a substantial downturn in the economy have fallen, and that raised concerns that the Fed may soon want to raise rates. The comments caused overnight selling and is filtering to our own markets this morning.

Pre-Market Movers: Ahead of the Bell
Once again the pre-market session is quite thin in terms of the number of issues moving on real volume. The futures and ETFs are leading the session so far, strongly to the downside. When we have this kind of action where the underlying is not being traded much, anything can happen to prices. Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) is the volume leader so far this morning, trading down (-2.82%) after Mylan (MYL) signed a license deal with Natco for a generic version of Teva’s Copaxone. This is a negative for the company given the importance of Copaxone sales. Apple (AAPL) is trading down (-0.5%) despite the introduction of the 3G iPhone and positive broker comments this morning. American Superconductor (AMSC) is a big winner, trading up +20% after Kaufman Brothers raised the price target on the shares to $53 following a $450M contract add on from Sinovel Wind Corporation. Lehman (LEH) is trading down (-1.76%) after Credit Suisse downgraded the shares to Neutral and Wachovia downgraded the stock to Market Perform. Loews (LTR) is trading down (-3.09%) on no specific negative news event that we can see. Nvidia (NVDA) is trading down (-2.36%) after the shares were downgraded to Sell at FTN Midwest.

Fast Money position recap- Macke Owns (EMC), (ATVI), (INTC), (WMT), (MSFT), (DIS); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BKC), (TSO), (XLF), (HPQ), (AMLN); Pete Najarian Owns (AA) Calls, (GME) Calls; Pete Najarian Owns (LEH) Puts; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (AAPL), (MSFT), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (INTC), (MER), (TIE), (TSO), (F); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EEM), (HAL), (TTM), (MBT), (GAF).

That bounce was not very strong yesterday. Be prepared for more downside momentum. Trim away areas in your portfolio that you are not convinced about and adhere to stop losses. The S&P could test the 1340-1350 support area today. Please be careful and have a list of shorts as well as longs, if you don’t, start developing one. We could be in for a wild ride for the next couple weeks. Be defensive or stay in cash majority. Take care and focus on the positives. Pick plays with a high probability of success. Great Luck and great trading.