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Premarket Analysis for 5/15- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

Crazy - Gnarls Barkley

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Thursday, May 15th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: In a move to help turnaround its troubled business, General Electric (GE) will sell or divest its appliance division, and could expect to receive between $5B and $8B for the unit, according to the Wall Street Journal. Potential buyers appliance makers BSH Bosch & Siemens Hausger of Germany and Haier Group of China, as well as private equity firms and Controladora Mabe, GE’s partner in Mexico…The Wall Street Journal also reported that Comcast (CMCSA) will acquire Plaxo, a networking Web site, in an effort to increase its range of services. Terms of the deal were not disclosed…To help improve its Ask.com search engine, the Wall Street Journal reported that IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) will buy the Lexico Publishing Group, which owns Dictionary.com, Thesaurus.com and Reference.com…BLOOMBERG: Citing the New England Journal of Medicine, Bloomberg reported that migraine headache medicines, including Merck & Co’s (MRK) Maxalt and GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) Imitrex caused potentially fatal reactions in at least 11 people. The Journal said people using “triptans,” an older class of migraine drugs, could develop serotonin syndrome, which may cause fever, shock, vomiting and rapid heartbeat… :the

SINA upgraded to Buy from Hold@SBSH
Citigroup upgraded shares and raised their target to $65 from $42 following SINA’s Q1 results.
SINA upgraded to Buy from Hold@KBRO
Kaufman Bros. upgraded shares to reflect the company’s better than expected outlook and raised their target to $78 from $44.50.

CTRP reports Q1 EPS 27c ex-items vs. consensus of 18c
Reports Q1 revenue $49M vs. consensus of $46.5M.
CTRP target lowered to $65 from $68, maintain Neutral@PIPR
Piper lowered their target following CTRP’s “strong” Q1 results due to increased near-term uncertainty from the earthquake. Piper expects the earthquake and associated negative sentiment to impact Q2 travel market.

Yingli Green Energy-YGE reports Q1 EPS 27c vs. consensus of 17c
Reports Q1 revenue $227.5M vs. consensus of $203.52M.
YGE reaffirms PV module shipment/net revenue for FY08
Based on the current market and operating conditions, estimated production capacity expansion and forecasted customer demand, the Company reaffirms its expected PV module shipment and net revenue targets for the full year 2008 as follows: PV module shipments in the estimated range of approximately 255 MW to 265 MW, which represents a 78.9% to 86.0% increase compared to 2007. Net revenues in the estimated range of approximately $969 million and $1,020 million, which represents a 74.1% to 83.3% increase compared to 2007.

Google China launches new online ad product-ChinaTechNews.com
Google (GOOG) formally released its new online ad product, Google AdSense. The company says that more than one million websites have joined the AdSense network and daily clicks total about 35 billion.

YHOO upgraded to Hold from Sell@CSTI
Collins Stewart upgraded shares as they see a 50% probability a deal with Microsoft (MSFT) gets done. Target $28.

Amazon’s Kindle could be the next iPod-like business-Silicon Valley Insider
Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney, says that Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle could contribute 3% of overall revenue in 2 years. Although his assumptions may be aggressive, the individual assumptions seem reasonable.

WMT: Predict stock’s valuation will increase@THNK
After Wal-Mart reported that its comps rose 2.7%, ThinkPanmure predicts that the company will enjoy improved sales, a record Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment and improved fixed asset return, causing the company’s valuation to rise. ThinkPanmure reiterated their Buy rating on the stock.

MER target raised to $57 from $53, reiterate Buy@BOFA
Banc of America raised their target after meeting with management to reflect better relative near-term EPS visibility and renewed confidence in management.

AMZN: View valuation as attractive, reiterate Buy@SBSH
Citigroup believes Kindle could generate between $400M and $750M in revenue by 2010 and that the NY State tax carries more headline than fundamental risk. They reiterate a Buy rating and $97 target.

URBN reports Q1 EPS 25c vs. consensus of 23c
Reports Q1 revenue $394.3M vs. consensus of $392.21M and Q1 SSS up 10%.

DO initiated with a Buy, target $160@UBSW
NE initiated with a Buy, target $81@UBSW
ATW initiated with a Buy, target $125@UBSW
RIG initiated with a Buy, target $201@UBSW
RIG is UBS’s Top Pick as they believe it is the primary beneficiary of rising deepwater dayrates.

Oil Tankers: competition and the economy will alter the balance -Barron’s Online
Shares of oil-tanker companies across the industry have been rebounding in recent months, with Frontline Ltd. (FRO) rallying 80% since late January and Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) gaining 55% during the same period. Day rates are hovering at their highest level in years. But competition from a slew of new tankers being delivered over the next year, along with a seasonal summer slump and economic headwinds, could soften these rates. This would turn the tide away from Frontline while puffing up the lagging shares of more stable revenue generators such as Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP), Overseas Shipholding and Teekay Corp. (TK). Frontline has widely outperformed peers because only 35%-40% of its revenues come from time charters, contracts that lock in tanker rates at a discount to the spot market but for longer periods of 3-to-7 years. Frontline changes its dividend payouts based on spot-market gains and divestitures. Should rates falter, so could their dividend. Jefferies’ Douglas Mavrinac says, “We see a significant number of new tankers being delivered for the remainder of 2008 and really accelerating in 2009 so we think that could weigh on rates earned by crude oil tanker companies.” In the meantime, Frontline shares could decline 30% to $45 despite the company’s ability to “find ways to create shareholder value in unconventional ways,” says Mavrinac. The divestiture of assets has been a way to drive dividend and stock growth even with lumpy earnings. While Frontline should continue to generate strong cash flow despite a pullback in spot prices, Chris Armbruster, an Al Frank Asset Mgmt analyst, says lower price mean the dividend payout “would definitely be lower.” He is on the tipping point of making a Sell call on this long-time favorite stock, Frontline. Among the oil shipping stocks, Armbruster says that “Tsakos is probably our favorite at this point on a valuation basis and a dividend yield of over 5%. Given how rapidly Frontline has appreciated, deep-value players could see more attractive returns from charter-based shippers.

Fast Money position update- First Moves- Jeff likes UPS, Guy likes DE, Pete likes ETFC, Karen likes YHOO. Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (MSFT), (INTC), (WMT), (EMC), (DIS); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BKC), (ENER), (TSO), (XLF); Pete Najarian Owns (C) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (YHOO) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (JCP), (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (AEO), (PLCE); Finerman’s Firm Owns (YHOO) Puts And Call Spreads; Finerman’s Firm Owns (C) And (C) Leaps.

Market starting with a bounce after a strong sell off into the close yesterday. Let’s see how the opening range plays out. Watching the XLF and brokers as well as the tech leaders and 4 Horsemen. IWM has been a good leading indicator for the market.
Watching the OIH and RIG to see reaction to the upgrades and to energy prices with natural gas inventories coming out this morning. Solars look strong to start. Steel plays will be watched. Shippers should be watched as well with DRYS announcing earnings on Monday after the bell. Stay positive, look for great set ups and pick plays with a high probability of success.
Great trading and good luck!
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