Wang’s Happy Trading

Well, another rate cut, a quarter-point this time, turned out to be pretty much a “non-event”, at least for the market today. The market was up solidly just before the news came out, and, held steadily for about half-an-hour. Then, the market reversed. The market came back some before the close, but, still finished in the red. The commodity related sectors found some buying though, after yesterday’s selloff.

The Dow ended down just 11.81 points (was up over +100 points at one point); SPX slid 5.35 points; and Nasdaq lost 13.3 points.

I was not sure about how the market will react to the Fed today. So, I was cautious:
HappyTrading
Posted April 30, 2008 at 7:42 am | Permalink (Edit)
…
but, I’m being a little cautious ahead of the Fed. Managing my risk and holding lots of cash. If the market reacts well, it has a lot of room to run.

HappyTrading
Posted April 30, 2008 at 7:57 am | Permalink (Edit)
oh, btw, I’m stepping out to just force myself to hold lots of cash and not to get “itchy fingers”.

I did manage to cash out on another “bagger” trade with GOOG, although those options went as high as $33.6 today:

These I held for about a week after the GOOG’s great earnings report. I also made a comment on GOOG this morning on the member board:
HappyTrading
Posted April 30, 2008 at 6:48 am | Permalink (Edit)
Good morning!

GOOG
also; taking some profits (unpublished trade; May 560 calls bought at $13.4 last week); but, the hourly chart looks like it’s just getting started. This could go to $600 with slight resistance around $575.

GOOG closed just below $575, that soft resistance that I was referring to. In a stronger market environment, I think GOOG still has room to go. So, I’ll be keeping an eye on it.

I also bought BIDU last week and could have cashed out with a solid gain today, but, the reversal came fast, and I was stopped out with a slight loss.

I cashed out my trade on PNRA, mentioned yesterday, which could have been a bagger too:

These options are trading above $7 right now! But, got to be happy with an overnight +56% profit!

UNP, a published trade (will be updated on the Happy Trades!! page this weekend) was cashed out today also for a +54% gain. A member asked me to go over this trade:
dlbnext
Posted April 30, 2008 at 7:23 am | Permalink (Edit)
Happy
I really enjoyed your sharing with us how you traded FSLR, DECK, and GOOG. I think your educating us will be of great benefit to us and yourself also, because the role of the teacher benefits the teacher as much as the students. And in that vain I would ask that when you have the time would you please explain the UNP trade as it seemed to me to have a different method than that of the FSLR, DECK, and GOOG trades.
Thank you Happy and welcome back.

I will go over the charts on UNP and my thought process in making this trade later tonight, with another post, but, on the member site only.

Ok, let’s see how the market closed:

Commodity related sectors found some buyers rushing back today: GLD (gold) +0.98%, SLV (silver) +2.06%, OIH (oil services) +0.97%, XME (metals and mining) +0.88%. SOX (semiconductors) was weak, losing 1.5%, but, INX2 (Internet) stayed in the green, +0.32%. FXI (Chinese ADRs) gained +0.84%. FXB (British Pound) was up +1.01%.

SPX

SPX slid 5.35 points to close at 1385.59. It went above 1400 today, but, closed at its 10-day MA. The MACD stayed flat.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq lost 13.3 points to close at 2412.80. It managed to close above its 10-day MA, with its daily MAs still in their bullish formation. The MACD was also flat.

The market seemed like it was not so sure how to react to the Fed’s 1/4-point rate cut. VIX also hung around flat all day, even though the market tried to rally. VIX ended the day adding +2.72%. We need to see VIX back below $20 to feel more comfortable. The market major indices do still show bullish formations with their MAs. So, I’ll wait patiently with lots of cash on the sideline.

Brazilians are known for their hot bikinis! But, today, their stocks were even hotter, after S&P raised Brazil’s long-term sovereign credit rating. Among the beneficiaries were UBB +11.74%, PBR +3.96%, and RIO +6.08%. UBB might need to vent a bit, but, PBR and RIO still look strong.

In addition, it was brought to my attention, in reaction to my post on MA and V last night, that many members posted great trades on these on the member board:

Luck -o- the Irish
Posted April 29, 2008 at 5:25 am | Permalink (Edit)
VLO’s number was just HUGE
MA looks good
afterhours buy on V, not priceless, but I’ll take it.
CGNX setting up for maybe a gap play, but also looking nice.
AG - numbers good, but guidance looks bad
BNI numbers were good
ENR numbers look like a BIG miss

Luck -o- the Irish
Posted April 29, 2008 at 5:36 am | Permalink (Edit)
it will be interesting to see how the 250-270-280 skip strike butterfly works out on MA. Fortunately, I did not position any additional bearish call spreads on it. My cost was $2.29.

Luck -o- the Irish
Posted April 29, 2008 at 5:39 am | Permalink (Edit)
i wound up buying some V May 80c-90c-95c skip strikes, which I just wrote off last night, but it is showing some fight this morning

Makemoney
Posted April 29, 2008 at 6:51 am | Permalink (Edit)
Good morning! Where is AAPL going today? Maybe V will pull the AAPL trick for us, and actually end up green. Dragon, great call on FLS yesterday!

Makemoney
Posted April 29, 2008 at 8:52 am | Permalink (Edit)
OK, back in the trading chair! Bought some AAPL calls before I left this morning,and am very happy to see that they are doing quite well. Nice recovery for V also. Like I said, it’s trying to pull the AAPL trick on us. Bought back the V calls this am, that I sold yesterday to take advantage of the drop in IV. Made a nice profit. I really need to learn more about IV, because the drop in the option price the day after earnings can be substantial.

This is what’s so great about our community. It’s really not just me, OptionDragon, and other managing members on our team. There are so many other great traders and financial wizards sharing their ideas. We’re creating wealth, togther! Thanks a million everyone!

Good night and HappyTrading ™