Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted by Optiondragon

Sublime - Santeria

From Briefing.com

Media Digest 4/16/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg from 24/7 Wallst.

According to Reuters, US senator Charles Schumer has asked the SEC to look at conflicts of interest at bond rating firms.

Reuters writes that Washington Mutual (WM) are in favor of the company having a new chairman.

Reuters writes that Intel (INTC) turned in good margins and a strong forecast.

Reuters reports that the head of UBS (UBS) say it will take three years to repair the bank’s reputation.

Reuters writes that critics of hedge fund oversight want the government to take a stronger hand in regulating them,

The Wall Street Journal reports that Merrill Lynch (MER) will report a loss and will write-down $6 billion to $8 billion in mortgage-related securities.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Venezuela will begin to tax profits of foreign oil companies.

The Wall Street Journal reports that United (UAUA) and AMR (AMR) could potential do mergers which would sharply cut the number of large airlines in the US.

The Wall Street Journal writes that China’s GDP grew 10.6% in the first quarter, a slowing from the last quarter of 2007.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft (MSFT) plans to lend more to its small business customers.

The Wall Street Journa writes several large companies, including Nokia (NOK) and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) will limit the fees that they charge carriers for the next generation for ultra-fast internet.

The Wall Street Journal reports that News Corp’s (NWS) MySpace will begin aggressive expansion overseas.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the market in credit default swaps has been soaring.

The Wall Street Journal writes that China has taken a 1% stake in BP (BP).

The Wall Street Journal reports that the options market is betting Citigroup (C) will cuts its dividend again.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the competition among online ad networks is growing.

The New York Times writes that successful hedge fund managers had huge pay-days in 2007.

The New York Times writes that Merck (MRK) wrotes some research reports on its drugs instead of doctors doing it on their own.

The FT writes that GE (GE) will invest $2 billion in China.

Bloomberg reports that inflation in China hit an 11-year high.

Mosaic announces Canpotex potash contract with China (MOS) 127.60 : Co announces that Canpotex Limited, the export association of Saskatchewan potash producers, has reached a potash supply agreement with Sinofert in China for the remainder of calendar 2008. The new contract calls for shipment of one million tonnes of potash at $576 per tonne, FOB Vancouver, representing a $400 per tonne increase over the price in 2007. “We are pleased that Canpotex has finalized negotiations with our Chinese customers and we look forward to resuming shipments to them soon.

Potash announces potash price increase in 2008 Canpotex, Sinofert agreement (POT) 184.41 : Co announces that Canpotex Ltd., the offshore marketing co for Saskatchewan potash producers, and Sinofert Holdings Ltd, a fertilizer enterprise in the People’s Republic of China, have reached agreement on 2008 potash pricing at US $400 per tonne higher than in 2007.
This was the news we were expecting and right around the time too. Watch for continued strength but watch out for the sell on news effect.

SPWR: Expect solid Q1 of 35c/$245M, reiterate Buy@UBSW
UBS said checks indicate instances of favorable Q1 solar module pricing of up 2-3% driven by robust California installs.
SPWR has earnings tomorrow morning and with a favorable market I like an overweight long strangle here going into earnings.

INTC: See lower risk/reward ratio, maintain Market Perform@JMPS
After the company reported in-line results for its Q1, JMP Securities believes Intel’s risk/reward ratio is somewhat lower due to potential pressure from AMD (AMD) and the trend towards higher growth at lower prices. The firm recommends reducing Intel holdings to market weight and overweighting AMD.

JCP CEO says ‘not enough visibility’ to give annual guidance
Reported by Bloomberg, citing comments from analyst meeting.

Goldman raised MON & DD estimates based on market share gains in US corn, and higher prices in trait and Roundup. MON target to $140 from $135.

MT target raised to $105 from $90, maintain Buy@DBA–also

Arcelor Mittal to raise prices by $250 per ton on some steel shipments-Bloomberg
In an effort to recoup spiking iron ore and energy costs, Bloomberg reports that ArcelorMittal (MT) may raise prices by $250 per ton on some contracted steel shipments in the U.S. According to an April 15 memo to sales personnel, the price increases will be added to orders of flat-rolled steel for shipment ‘May 5 and later’.

GOOG: Expect soft results, maintain Hold@STFG
Stanford expects the company to report Q1 EPS of $4.46, versus the consensus of $4.52. The firm believes that comScore data released last night indicates that the recession is impacting consumer search behavior, and the firm predicts that Google’s gross revenues only grew 40% in Q1.
Wow, everyday for the past month GOOG has been downgraded.

Elan-ELN July volatility Elevated into Phase 2 data. Goldman Sachs say’s “Adding to Buy list on Tysabri and Bapineuzumab outlook.” ELN’s & WYE’s Bapineuzumab (Alzheimer’s treatment) Phase 2 trail results are expected in Q2. Keeping an eye on this and ready to strangle.

AAPL: O2 cut the price of the 8GB iPhone by 37% in the UK@PIPR
Piper notes that effective today, O2 cut the price of the 8GB iPhone by 37% in the UK, which follows the 75% cut on April 4th in Germany by T-Mobile. Piper believes the price cuts indicate the light demand for iPhones in Europe and that the European iPhone carriers are draining the channel ahead of a new iPhone. They continue to expect a slightly redesigned 3G iPhone in June. Shares remain Buy rated. :

BLK reports Q1 EPS $1.90 vs. consensus of $2.00
Reports Q1 revenue $1.3B vs. consensus of $1.29B

NYMEX says CME bid is ‘too low’-NY Post
If the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does not raise is $11B offer for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX), or boost its own share price, a group of Nymex shareholders are threatening to kill a potential deal. The group is concerned over the diminishing value of CME’s takeover bid, as it has fallen by about $18 per share since January. Nymex member Gary Glass said he could support a deal only if CME is able to get its stock price up to around $620 per share, which could edge the takeover price to about $118 per share. Glass claims that over 300 of Nymex’s 816 members said they would vote against the deal if the price isn’t boosted. Sources believe CME will look to boost its stock to $560 through a stock buyback.

Merrill Lynch faces quarterly loss and billions more in write-downs-WSJ
When Merrill Lynch (MER) reports it’s quarterly results tomorrow, they’re expected to report new write-downs between $6B and $8B, reports the Wall Street Journal. Since October total write-downs will then be about $30B, and the firm will be reporting its third straight quarterly net loss for the first time in its history. Merrill is now planning to reveal a cost saving plan, and has shifted its focus to risk management. :

YGE initiated with a Overweight@LEHM
TSL upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform@FBRC
Friedman Billings upgraded TSL citing expectations for improved FCF following the company’s announcement to discontinue its in-house poly manufacturing.

Fast Money position update- Adami likes AAPL, Karen likes UFS, Pete likes NE, Jeff thinks IBM is a sell.
Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC), (MSFT); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MO), (MSFT), (PM), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (YHOO, (UFS); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (SPG), (COF); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (AMR), (BIIB), (CSCO), (MSFT), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO); Najarian Owns (LEH) Puts; Najarian Owns (WLT) Calls; Najarian Owns A Call Spread In (IBM); Najarian Owns A Call Spread In (INTC).

With the INTC report last night the market now has a reason to bounce. The bounce also coincides with a technical cycle up after basing for the past 2 days. Let’s see how it shakes out and if they fade the gap on the market outside the previous days market range. I am watching the Four horsemen, Ag’s, steel, coal, and solars for some action today. The financials look strong with JPM and WFC leading. If they can hold and strengthen further with the INTC news strengthening tech then we may get a decent rally today. Keep focused and patient. Stay positive and focused on your goals. Move with the market and wait for great setups and high probability plays! Great trading today and good luck!