Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Jem - They (Space version)

From Briefing.com

Media Digest 4/15/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTImes, FT, Barron’s from 24/7 Wallst.
According to Reuters, Northwest (NWA) and Delta (DAL) will merge to create the world’s largest airline.

Reuters writes that the profit at Bear Stearns (BSC) fell 79%.

Reuters reports that Continental (CAL) and United (UAUA) have laid most of the groundwork for a merger.

Reuters writes that banks are more likely to sell shares at a discount as Q1 losses mount.

Reuters reports that Treasury want more disclosure from hedge funds on assets.

Reuters writes that Singapore sovereign fund Temasek may raise more capital after losing money on US investments.

The Wall Street Journal writes that oil production in Russia may be falling and could continue to do so.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Brazil has made a huge offshore oil discovery which could turn it into one of the wolrld’s largest oil producers.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Nissan and Chrysler will built full-sized pick-ups in a joint venture.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the US could lose its AAA rating if it has to rescue Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM).

The Wall Street Journal reports that earnings from Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) may confrim whether GE’s (GE) earnings are part of a trend or an aberration.

The FT writes that Citigroup (C) is allowing pivate equity firms to cherry pick its LBO loans to find which ones they want to buy,

The FT reports that Wal-Mart (WMT) plans to expand in Russia and Eastern Europe.

The FT writes that “Tranche warfare” has broken out in the $450bn market at the heart of the
credit crunch as hard-hit investors scrap over the pools of debts that
make up so-called collateralised debt obligations.

Asian Markets Wrap-Up for Tuesday, April 15th from flyonthewall.com
Stocks rose, with commodity producers leading the advance after oil prices hit a record, and precious metal prices increased. JAPAN: Stocks gained, led by brokerage firms. The Nikkei 225 added 0.57% to 12,990.58. Brokerage firm Mitsubishi (MTU) jumped 2.3%, while Mitsui (MITSY), another brokerage firm, climbed 3.1%. Both firms rely heavily on commodity trading to generate profits. A number of companies that use a large amount of fuel for their businesses slumped. Japan Airlines (JALSY) fell 2%, while Oji Paper (OJIPY) lost 3.8%. Tokyo Electron (TOELF), which makes semiconductor production equipment, climbed 3.5%, after Nomura Holdings released a positive note about companies in that sector. CHINA: Energy stocks led an advance. The CSI 300 Index increased 1.3%, to 3,583.30. Coal producer Shenhua Energy (CUAEF) climbed 2.3%, while Shanxi Xishan Coal jumped 5.2%. China Petroleum (SNP) added 1.7%. Jiazuo Wanfang Aluminum rallied 9.9%, after the company reported that its Q1 profit had jumped 32%. AROUND ASIA: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.38%, while Taiwan’s Taiex added 0.36% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.09%. .. Indian software services company Infosys (INFY) predicted that its sales growth would accelerate this year as U.S. businesses seek to outsource more IT functions during the economic slowdown.

FCX upgraded to Overweight from Neutral@HSBC
HSBC upgraded FCX citing valuation. Target to $130 from $95.
Nice upgrade and actionable, FCX is gapping up let’s see if it continues for the day off a short term bounce.

USB reports Q1 EPS 62c vs. consensus of 61c
Reports Q1 revenue $3.87B vs. consensus of $3.66B.
Better than expected results. Let’s see how the stock ultimately reacts.

MT upgraded to Buy from Hold@SBSH . Nice upgrade let’s see if it corresponds to the stock and sector.

CROX: Shares look cheap, but recommend staying in sidelines@JPMS
JP Morgan still believes there is a place in the current footwear market for CROX as a brand but thinks the bears will take the earnings miss evidence that the brand is over. While shares look cheap, JP Morgan recommends staying on the sidelines with a Neutral rating until macro pressures, inventory issues and record short interest play out.

CROX downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight@TWPT
Thomas Weisel downgraded CROX citing slowing growth, deleverage of the expense structure, and limited visibility.
CROX gaping down hard after the lowered guidance.

FRX sees 2009 EPS $3.10-$3.20 vs. consensus of $3.26
Sees 2009 revenue growth of nearly 4% and net sales growth of slightly more than 6%. Sees 3009 Lexapro sales of approximately $2.4B.
FRX gapping down and it could flatten to trail lower from here.

GOOG: Expect Q1 results to come in slightly below consensus@PIPR
Piper expects GOOG to report Q1 results slightly below consensus due to softening in paid clicks but believes a slight guide down is priced into the stock. Piper thinks GOOG continues to gain market share at the expense of Yahoo (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.
Gosh I wonder when GOOG will bounce. It looks like investors are totally risk averse to this issue and are willing to wait for earnings before making a move.

NSC added to Short-Term Buy list@UBSW
UBS believes NSC will report Q1 EPS of 83c vs. consensus of 77c. Shares are Neutral rated.
CSX has earnings today after the bell.

Apple plans iPhone price cut in the UK-Cellular-News
Following a larger cut in Germany, Telefonica’s (TEF) O2 is reported to be planning a price cut for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone device in the UK. The price cut, which is expected to be announced tomorrow, will likely see the 8GB model cut to $333, which would put the price in the UK below what it costs in the U.S. The price cuts may come in order to clear out the remaining stocks before the launch of the rumored 3G iPhone model.

PII reports Q1 EPS 55c vs. consensus of 46c
Reports Q1 revenue $388.7M vs. consensus of $370.5M. PII raises FY08 EPS view to $3.36-$4.46 vs consensus of $3.33.
PII CEO says momentum from 2007 continued into 2008. PII sees FY08 sales up 5%-7%.
Very good numbers from PII and it historically moves after the numbers so this gap up should be sustained and PII could move higher throughout the day.

DO downgraded to Hold from Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares on valuation and concerns that midwater demand could see increasing competition. Target raised to $120 from $89.

RIG downgraded to Sell from Hold@DBAB
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares on valuation as they believe “lofty” expectations are priced into the stock. Target raised to $120 from $108.
Its all about energy prices on this one and I’m not sure these downgrades will last long nor matter.

MGM Mirage to cut about 440 management jobs-WSJ
MGM MIrage (MGM), the Las Vegas gambling firm with 66,000 U.S. employees, will cut about 440 management jobs, mostly in Las Vegas, reports the Wall Street Journal, a sign of the economic slowdown. The gambling industry used to be considered somewhat recession proof, but it has become more reliant on the travel industry which is more prone to economic slumps.

IMO initiated with an Overweight@JPMS
JP Morgan said IMO has a structural competitive advantage due to access to XOM technology.

MEE upgraded to Overweight from Neutral@JPMS
JP Morgan upgraded MEE citing the company’s leverage to metallurgical coal prices in 2009.
Very actionable and will be watched closely….it’s all about the metallurgical coal!
ANR, WLT, CNX, CLF, PCX

Producer Price Index came in with a reading of +1.1% versus an expected rise of +0.6%. However, if you take away the volatile components of food and energy, it came out in line at +0.2%.

Fast Money position updates- First moves- Karen likes MSFT, Maacke likes C, Pete likes HAL, Adami likes WB with a tight stop.
Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC), (HAS) (MSFT); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (AMR), (CSCO), (TSO) (XLF), (YHOO); Najarian Owns (BHI) Calls, (BSC) Calls, (CHK) Calls, (LEH) Puts; Najarian Owns (MSFT) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (WMT), (YHOO), (GLNG), (CROX); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (SPY), (MDY), (IWM), (COF) (GLD); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (FNM) Calls; Finerman’s Firm Is Short The British Pound; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (KALU).

Hot sectors- Steel (X, CLF, MT, MTL, RIO, RS, STLD, RS), coal (MEE, ANR, WLT, CNX, FDG, TCK, ACI), solars (FSLR, SPWR, STP, SOLF, LDK, JASO), AGs (POT, MOS, CF, MON, BG), oils (DVN, EOG, APA, UPL, ECA, RIG, DO, NOV, RRC, UNG, USO)
Keeping an eye on how the market opens and reacts to the inflation numbers this morning. Watching FCX, solars, coals, oils, steel, and Ag’s. Sticking with the strongest and when i want to short I’m looking to earnings disappointments and financials. With the surprise good earnings from some of the financials, I think XLF could find some short term support and the market could find some footing here today with a possible bounce.
Stay nimble and keep your eye on the prize, trade what’s in front of you and focus on the NOW. Keep positive and know that you will achieve your goals. Wait for the right setups and high probability trades. Great trading and good luck!