Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Modest Mouse - Float On

From Briefing.com

Reuters writes that the ex-ceo of UBS (UBS) wants to breakup the bank.

Reuters reports that News Corp (NWS) has reorganized its internet division.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) meet about Redmonds proposed buy-out but made no progress.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Motorola (MOT) will cut 2,600 more jobs.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Northwest (NWA) is raising its fare and fuel fees.

The Wall Street Journal reports that News Corp’s MySpace has begun a music store to compete with Apple (AAPL).

The Wall Street Journal writes that China’s sovereign-wealth fund pledged to increase transparency.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Microsoft will continue to sell its old OS, Windows XP.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) will use their new spectrum to create super-fast wireless broadband.

The New York Times writes that some investors are buying distressed mortgages and securities in companies that may file Chapter 11.

The FT writes that John Reed, one of the creators of the new Citigroup (C), thinks that creating it ten years ago was a mistake.

The FT writes that there has been a surge of borrowing from the Fed by primary dealers.

Bloomberg writes that the Fed has signaled more cuts due to market stresses.

CENX initiated with a Outperform@BMOC, CENX near a 52 week high and could break out to the upside with help from this upgrade.

AA initiated with a Market Perform, target $37.50@BMOC, very interesting trading yesterday on AA with buyout rumors floating around and unusual option trading recently, Najarian talked about AA recently on CBOE-TV.

T-Mobile cuts price of iPhone to EUR99-Hindustan Times
Ahead of the expected launch of a new model, Deutsche Telekom’s (DT) T-Mobile has decided to cut its price in Germany for the 8-gigabyte version of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone to EUR99 from EUR399 with a two-year contract from April 7 through June 30. T-Mobile says the 16-gigabyte iPhone will continue to cost EUR499. Apple is expected to soon launch a next-generation 3G iPhone.
This is the first price discount move on iPhone that I have seen and portends to the introduction of the new iPhone 3G and corresponding price cuts on the older models. The price cut will make the iPhone sell like crazy. your not allowed to cut prices like this without AAPl knowing so this was probably given the greenlight by both companies. This news is timed right after RIMM blowout numbers, coincidence? No.

MOS reports Q3 EPS $1.17 vs. consensus of 95c
Reports Q3 revenue $2.1B vs. consensus of $1.92B. The environment for Mosaic’s core Phosphate and Potash businesses looks ‘extraordinary’ despite the recent turbulence in commodity markets. Mosaic’s realized DAP price, FOB plant, for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 is estimated to be $710 to $730 per ton. Mosaic’s fourth quarter average realized MOP price, FOB plant, is estimated to be $305 to $325 per ton.
MOS announces additional potash expansions
The Mosaic Company announced a long term potash capacity expansion plan in Saskatchewan, Canada in response to continuing robust global demand for potash. The total expansions announced, together with those announced in May 2007, are expected to increase Mosaic’s annual capacity by approximately 5.1 million metric tonnes at an estimated average capital cost that is significantly lower than greenfield projects. Upon completion of these expansions, Mosaic’s total annual capacity will approximate 15.5 million tons.
Excellent numbers from MOS and the expansion automatically boosts future EPS. Expect continuing strength from the Ag’s on this news, POT, CF, MOS, TRA, AGU, MON

C- Q1 write-downs could reach $8B-$8.5B, estimates lowered@JPMS
JP Morgan estimates that Citigroup could take further write-downs of $8B-$8.5B in Q1 due to collateralized debt obligations and leveraged loans. They believe rising credit losses and additional write-downs should continue to weigh on earnings and lowered C’s 2008 estimate to $1.69 from $3.95.
BAC 2008 estimate lowered to $3.25 from $4.40@JPMS
JP Morgan believes BAC’s Q1 results will be impacted by further large write-downs and the need to add significantly to loan loss reserves. They also expect core loan growth to slow in 2008 due to pressure on capital ratios. Shares remain Overweight rated. :t
Pretty amazing that this downgrade cycle keeps going….they downgrade each other continuously everyday. None of this is new news and is barley actionable since its baked into the cake and has become an overcrowded trade.

Portfolio Strategy: Sector weights changed@GSCO
Goldman upgraded Consumer Staples, Utilities and Materials; and downgraded Health Care and Information Techology.

CSX downgraded to Neutral from Buy@MLCO
Valuation cited for the downgrade. CSX made a recent new 52 week high.

U.S. March Payrolls fall 80,000; Unemployment Rate at 5.1%-Bloomberg, Market reacted negatively to the numbers but it is pricing in the worse than expected numbers fairly well with the Dow Jones futures still positive.
Now the market will focus on earnings. -80,000 versus an expected decrease of -50,000.
The unemployment rate came in at 5.1% versus an expected 5%.

Riverbed Technology (RVBD), trading down (-9.1%) after a negative preannouncement on their Q1 after the bell last night.

UBS AG (UBS) is trading up +3.91% after a former president called for a breakup of the company. This has other financial names up as well today. Citigroup (C) is up +1.19% after an article in the Financial Times noted that Reed, former head of Citicorp was advising CEO Pandit to consider spinning-off parts of the company.

Dell Inc (DELL) is trading down (-1.4%) after it was downgraded this morning at Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy.

GRMN: Continue to view as an attractive valuation & growth story@BARD
Baird said GRMN maintained 2008 guidance after a misleading news article yesterday. Management indicated Q1 revenue would be below Street expectations but the firm maintains their Outperform rating.

BA: Q1 deliveries in-line, maintain Buy@GABE
After Boeing reported Q1 deliveries in-line with expectations, Gabelli continues to expect the company to produce 478 airplanes this year, versus 441 in 2007. The firm continues to think that the company’s stock represents good value over the long-term. :

WFR: Expect shares to trade in a range@RBCM
RBC believes spot prices are peaking and that industry risk going forward will keep shares in a trading range. They maintain a Sector Perform on the stock.

Fast Money Updated positions- First Moves- Macke likes AAPl, Adami likes GLW, Karen likes MSFT, Najarian likes WLT (I love WLT).
Macke Owns (MSFT), (YHOO); Najarian Owns (XLF), (AAPL), (CSCO); Najarian Owns (MER) Puts; Najarian Owns (AA) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS), (NYX), (MO), (MSFT), (FNM), (VLO), (SUN), (TSO), (FNM); Finerman is Short (GLD).

Art Cashin says that maybe the worst of the financial stuff is over since there is some bargain hunting here in the financials and mortgage backed bonds. Art thinks that this is only an interim bottom and a recession bottom could be in the future.

I’m going to be focusing on GOOG, RIMM, GS, AAPL, AMZN, MA, V, BIDU, MOS, POT, FSLR, LDK and the solars (LDK is at a higher high than yesterday which is interesting to me also it is short sale restricted). This market is very resilient! The market has shaken off the worse than expected jobs numbers so I will be watching closely for continuing strength and how the market ends up. I am very impressed with the market and do note that the Dow Theory and Gartman turning bullish on equities and covering his shorts as confirming my bullish thesis for this market. Gartman in his recent newsletter talked about a “watershed” moment of turning bullish from his recent bearish stance since last year. He doesn’t change his opinion often on these types of stances so when he does make a mental note of it. He cites high commodity prices, many stocks near their 52 week highs and the emerging markets technically breaking out to the upside breaking out of their bearish channels as some reasons for changing to a bullish stance. Stay smart and go with the market tide. Look for great setups and pick plays with a high probability of success! Positivity is in your essence, and seek the zone. Achieve! Achieve! Have a wonderful weekend. Good Luck and Great trading!