Submitted By Optiondragon
Jane’s Addiction – Jane Says
From Briefing.com
The Wall Street Journal writes that the Senate agreed on a $15 billion housing stimulation bill.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Live Nation (LYV) is near a $150 million deal with rapper Jay-Z.
The Wall Street Journal reports that AT&T (T) plans to use Google Android in some of its hansets.
The Wall Street Journal writes that a judge ordered a probe of lending practices at Countrywide (CFC).
The FT writes that as nornal source of home loans have fallen Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are driving new mortgages.
ArcelorMittal sees coal price rising 150-200 pct.
Coking coal and Iron ore stocks to keep a watch on, CLF has already broken out. CLF, ANR, CNX, RIO, MTL, WLT, PCX
PCX initiated with a Outperform, target $59@FBRC
Friedman Billings is positive on PCX’s acquisition of Magnum Coal and expected synergies.
LDK- LDK signs 10-year wafer supply agreement
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. announced that it has signed a ten-year contract which is a blend of “Take or Pay” linked with market-based pricing to supply multicrystalline solar wafers to India-based Moser Baer Photo Voltaic Limited, a subsidiary of Moser Baer India Limited. Under the terms of the agreement, LDK Solar will deliver 640 MW of multicrystalline solar wafers to MBPV over a ten-year period commencing in mid 2008 through 2017. MBPV will make a suitable advance payment reflecting the contract value to LDK Solar.
Great news for LDK and the solars could still find some strength after a good run just watch for profit taking and some consolidation at some point. The WFR news does put a damper on things and could negate positive action. I am keeping an eye on SOLF, LDK, YGE, EMKR, CSIQ, TSL, CSUN, SPWR, FSLR, STP, AKNS, ASTI
One of the biggest catalysts for the recent move in the solars is due to the upcoming Congress bill on extending solar tax credits for 8 years, it is rumored to be unveiled soon. Although, Citigroup believes solar stocks are moving higher on a competitor note saying the US government will extend solar tax credits by the end of the month with a new bill before the Senate. While Citigroup’s sources indicate a new bill will be introduced before the Senate later this week that attempts to extend the solar tax credits for 8 years, they believe speculation of a near-term passage of the bill is overly optimistic.
MON: 2008 estimates raised on glyphosate strength@FBCO
Credit Suisse raised MON’s 2008 EPS estimate to $3.32 from $2.82 citing glyphosate strength and corn seed profitability. Shares are Neutral rated.
GRMN putting out a warning this morning and gapping down. GRMN CFO says sees Q1 revenue down 40%-50% sequentially. GRMN CFO sees Nuvifone adding to earnings in Q3-Reuters
The CFO says sees Nuvifone Q3, Q4 revenue share not exceeding 10%.
GRMN says aims to raise European market share to 25% in 2008.
Watch for continued weakness or some action in GRMN, this morning.
WFR gapping down after warning on Q1. WFR sees Q1 revenue approx. $500M vs. consensus of $559.23M. WFR lowers Q1 gross margin view to ~52% from ~54.8%. From flyonthewall.com- At current price the shares are hovering near the 200-day moving average at $68.92. This is a major uptrend line proxy and would be bearish if broken. The 50-week moving average at $67.53 is the primary long-term uptrend line proxy. A breakdown on a sustained basis below this line would finish a three year uptrend and would therefore be extremely long-term bearish. Support levels to watch as potential downside objectives are at $68.92, $68.80, $67.53, $66.45, $64.68, $63.15, $62.03, $60.40. Resistance based on current pre-market price is at $70.00, $71.71, $73.74.
Research in Motion (RIMM) is trading up +2.9% after a better than expected earnings report last night after market close. the strangle and straddle were grossly overvalued yesterday and I chose to stand on the sidelines because the risk/reward ratio was not favorable or compelling. I will look to see if it is gap tradeable this morning but based on initial reactions to the numbers this could go into profit taking once it opens.
RIMM: Reiterate Overweight following Q4 results@JPMS
JP Morgan believes the company’s long-term secular growth story trumps their concerns regarding near-term consumer spending and seasonality. They found RIMM’s guidance solid following the Q4 upside. :
RIMM target raised to $120 from $110, maintain Hold@DBAB
Deutsche Bank raised their target to reflect the company’s beat and raise quarter on strong device sales. However, they maintain a Hold rating believing shares are “currently priced for perfection.”
RIMM target raised to $150 from $115@OPCO
After the company reported stronger than expected results and provided higher than expected guidance, Oppenheimer raised their EPS estimate for the company’s 2009 by 15% and maintained their Outperform rating. The firm would be buyers of the stock, partly because they believe RIMM’s 3G rollout in Europe will produce better than expected results.
RIMM target raised to $160 from $150, reiterate Buy@BOFA
Banc of America found RIMM’s quarter and guidance impressive and believes the company’s strong product cycle in the fast growing Smartphone segment will lead to further upward estimate revisions.
Microsoft (MSFT) is trading down (-0.3%) after the Times of India reported the Indian government is seeking back tax payments from the company of $175M.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) is trading down (-2.5%) after UBS Investment Bank downgraded the shares to Neutral.
Chesapeake (CHK) is trading down (-2.01%) after JP Morgan downgraded the shares to Neutral citing “a lack of financial discipline”.
eBay (EBAY) is trading up +2.9% after positive comments from Oppenheimer & Co this morning and a report yesterday at TechCrunch that Google (GOOG) may seek a partnership with or outright acquisition of Skype.
Initial Jobless claims for the week of March 29th was released, and came in up 407,000 versus an expected 366,000. The prior weeks number was adjusted to 369,000 from a reported 366,000. The number had a negative effect on the futures, as they are traded lower prior to the release of the report.
The Housing Compromise has been agreed in principal but Cramer believes its not enough. Could get a disappointment reaction. Cramer calls it a homebuilder bailout.
SCHN is gapping up on great earnings results. SCHN reports Q2 EPS $1.25 vs. consensus of $1.01
Reports Q2 revenue $751.5M vs. consensus of $722.42M. Watch the steel plays on this earnings report but I expect them to move with the market tide.
MER: Estimates & target lowered to $52 from $59@LEHM
Lehman lowered MER’s Q1 EPS estimate to ($2.75) from 19c. The firm expects a net P&L write-down of $5B. Shares are Equal Weight rated.
GS: Estimates & target cut to $200 from $213@LEHM
Lehman lowered GS 2008 EPS estimate to $15.60 from $17.15 citing reduced outlook. Shares are Equal Weight rated.
Brokers could see some weakness today after a run and this downgrade. So goes the brokers, so goes the market. Keep an eye on financilas for leading indicators.
GOOG Q1 estimate lowered to $4.49 from $4.65@SOLE
Soleil lowered their Q1 estimate due to recent comScore paid click data that suggests slower-than-projected growth in consumer clicks and a continuing slowdown in search traffic. They do not find the valuation compelling at current levels and maintain a Hold rating.
GOOG: eCommerce survey suggests softer spending in 2008@PIPR
Piper’s eCommerce survey suggests softer eCommerce spending in 2008 and they believe that 35% of all Internet searches are commerce related. However, while admitting a slowing eCommerce market could impact GOOG, Piper remains confident in the company’s long term fundamentals. Shares remain Buy rated. :
AMZN estimates lowered following consumer survey@PIPR
Piper lowered their estimates after their Q1 estimate to 39c from 43c after their eCommerce survey suggested sluggish online spending for U.S. consumers in 2008. Shares remain Neutral rated.
Fast Money positions- First moves- Adami likes WDC, Karen shorting COF, Najarian likes NOK, Macke likes AAPL esp on Munster’s 3G phone update. Macke Owns (MSFT), (YHOO), (INTC) Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (NYX), (TSO), (VLO), (WMT), (YHOO); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (COF), (CROX); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (CSCO), (ETFC), (MU), (NOK), (TSO) , (YHOO), (XLF); Pete Najarian Owns (AA) Calls, (BSC) Calls, (COP) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (LEH) Puts, (MER) Puts, (OIH) Puts; Pete Najarian Has A Long Diagonal Time Spread In (RIMM).
Looks like the downgrade parade just started today. I expect weakness today and I want to see the profit taking and selloff to be contained to a tight range in order to form a bull flag on the S&P. I have no idea if it will occur due to recent market volatility. Shorts seem to be a higher probability today although timing is crucial.
GRMN, WFR, financials, RIMM, 4 horsemen and BIDU all ones to watch. Keeping an eye on steel plays for reaction to SCHN earnings. Solar profit taking could kick in after a good run and the WFR warning.
Keeping nimble today and taking my cues from the market tide. The no expansion in the FHA for the Housing Bill is a negative. FHA expansion is the catalyst I was looking for to light this market. I’ll also be keeping my eye on the energy patch with my favorites, APA, EOG, DVN, RRC, XEC, SII, OIH, and more. Keep focused, positive, and have patience with conviction. Seek the zone and pick plays with a high probability of success.
Good Luck and Great trading!
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