Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted Optiondragon

Spoon - “Don’t You Evah”

From Briefing.com

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Monsanto (NYSE: MON) raised to Buy at UBS.
Potash Corp. opf Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) raised to TOP PICK at RBC Capital.
RBC Capital upgraded POT citing increased potash price estimates and valuation. Target to $250 from $195
Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

According to The New York Times, JP Morgan (JPM) is in talks to raise it bid for Bear Stearns (BSC) from $2 to $10.
Reuters writes that analysts now see a steep drop in Q1 earnings for S&P 500.
The Wall Street Journal writes that former executives from Countrywide (CFC) are launching a firm to buy distressed mortgages. The new entity is backed by Blackrock (BLK).
The New York Times writes that a new Google (GOOG) search feature may take advertising away from some of its content site partners.
The FT writes that court documents filed by JP Morgan show how far the value of some risky securities have fallen.
The most astonished set of figures to come out of the filings was that “some subprime mortgage-linked securities issued by groups such as UBS (NYSE: UBS) have lost almost 95 per cent of their value.” Regulators and auditors are likely to get their hands on this data and that could influence how they look at assets from other banks.
Bloomberg writes that “New York paid 10 securities firms more than $600,000 since mid-February to handle bids for auction-bonds even though the sales failed, saddling the state with penalty interest rates.” The firms included Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Goldman Sachs Adds RIO to Conviction Buy List (RIO). The company settled 2008 pellet prices at an 87% year over year increase, well above Goldman Sachs projected 45% increase. The firm also believe that iron ore consumption will be less affected than other metals due to the industrialization and urbanization in BRIC countries.

British lenders readying for fresh market turbulence-UK Times
Amid indications it may be weeks before the Bank of England acts to inject the banking system with cash, British lenders are getting ready for fresh market turbulence on wholesale markets. The Bank, which is believed to be ‘happy in principle’ to provide the injection, needs time to work out the details.

FDX: Weak outlook due to challenging US economy;increasing fuel costs@BARD

BSC: Fed sources say Fed was not involved in setting $2 price-CNBC
Fed sources tell CNBC they were not involved in setting the BSC/JPM acquisition price. Fed sources also said the details of the Fed’s $30B loan to JPM are still being worked out.
JPM near deal to up bid to $10/share for Bear Stearns-BSC-WSJ
The announcement is expected after the board meeting tomorrow.

WAG reports Q2 EPS 69c vs. consensus of 67c
Reports Q2 revenue $15.39B vs. consensus of $15.43B. The company reported Q2 SSS up 4.7%.

Financial sector comeback has a way to go-WSJ
While the financial sector has recently improved, it’s far from a full fledged recovery, according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Market Movers”. “The earnings power of financials has been bruised and the question is, how fast can it come back,” says David Kostin, a market strategist at Goldman Sachs Group (GS). S&P says the Fed’s recent moves provides some safety for brokerage firms, but they remain cautious: “The potential for a more substantial decline in profitability from capital-market activities” remains. Lehman Brothers (LEH), Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (MS) are on the S&P watch list for downgrades. They downgraded Merrill Lynch (MER) last year. What happens with the financials has a significant impact on the overall market. The sector made up 17.6% of the value of the stocks in the S&P 500-stock index at the end of last year, down from 22.3% a year earlier, but up from 13% in 1995. But, says UBS’s David Biancoange. “you’re going to have a change in attitude about risk-taking and using the balance sheet…for everything from securitization to proprietary trading.”

TIF reports Q4 EPS $1.27 vs. consensus of $1.21
Reports Q4 revenue $1.05B vs. consensus of $1.05B.
TIF sees FY08 net EPS up 11%-15% to $2.75-$2.85
Consensus is for EPS of $2.49.
TIF is gapping up strong this morning and could show lasting strength.

Fast Money- First Moves for Monday- Macke likes XLF, Adami likes MSFT, Tim likes PTR, Pete Najarian likes ORCL.
On Mar. 20, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Najarian Owns (LEH) Puts, (AA) Calls, (MSFT), (AAPL), (C), (CSCO), (MS), (USB) Puts, (XLF), (YHOO); Macke Owns (YHOO), (DIS), (INTC); Seymour Owns (MER), (AAPL), (CSCO), (F), (HAL), (INTC), (MBI); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EWT), (CPA), (EEM)

Keeping my eye on the financials as a leading indicator. GS, LEH, MS, JPM, BSC. The JPM/BSC correlated moves.
Watching the steel plays talked about this weekend. RIO esp since it was added to GS conviction list. How RIO reacts to the Upgrade by GS could be a tell on sentiment on the steel plays. X, NUE, STLD, MT

Gartman on Bloomberg video front page saying that a bottom could very well be in place. The rumor floating around the markets is that the world central banks are devising a plan to buy mortgages, Bill Gross says that they should. The market could explode to the upside if a plan is announced and could really squeeze short positions which according to new data out from the NYSE stands at historic highs.
GOOG, POT (upgrade), BIDU, MOS, CF all gapping higher.
POT and the Ag plays should be focused on. Look for sustained strength in POT due to upgrade and see how it reacts and sustains for the day.
CMC has earnings tomorrow morning and could be a good earnings strangle candidate.
Let’s look for window dressing going into the end of the quarter and month.
NFLX is another one to watch esp with Barron’s writing a positive article about them.
Keeping an eye on FITB, NCC, FHN for sentiment and also guaging the positive influence of Visa (keeping an eye on this too) to their profits.

Keep agile and let the market dicatate your game plan. Good Luck and smart trading! Seek the zone.