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Market Forecast for Week of 3/24: SPX, Nasdaq, DJI, XLF, INX2

happy_easter.jpgThursday’s market actions were very encouraging. with the Dow jumping +261.66 points, SPX adding +31.09 points, and the Nasdaq gaining +48.15 points. It does look like now that the market is ready to turn and perhaps to start to prepare for a new earnings season coming up in April (With all the recent “craziness” on the market, time seems to be flying!). There’s also an interesting Barron’s article this weekend, being especially bullish on the banks and brokerages.

SPX
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SPX added +31.09 points to close at 1329.51. It is just below its 30-day MA and the 10-day MA has turned up. The MACD has turned positive.

Nasdaq
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Nasdaq jumped +48.15 points to close at 2258.11. It is right at its 20-day MA. The MACD continued to rise.

For the new week, I think the market is ready to bounce. What we need to see is a few days of continuous rally and see if the market can catch the daily upper BB. There will likely to be times when the market needs to vent, but breaking above the immediate resistance (SPX 1340; Nasdaq 2300), and staying above, could turn this resistance into a support. The market has been under pressure for recent months that started with the financials. Now that the financials are making a strong comeback, they could be the leading indicators to watch.

Sector Watch
XLF (financials)
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XLF jumped +7.21% on Thursday. It closed above its 30-day MA and the 10-day MA turned up. Its top components all performed really well on Thursday.

DJI (The Dow)
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I don’t normally show the chart of the Dow Jones Industrials because it is an index of only 30 top stocks. But, I think there’s perhaps some valuable information here right now. Comparing to SPX and Nasdaq, DJI is doing better. It is already above its daily MAs. To me, what this is saying is, at least initially, as the market starts to bounce, investors are focusing more on the strongest and the biggest companies. BAC, WMT, GE, and C all showed lots of strength on Thursday.

INX2 (Internet)
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INX2 closed just above its daily MAs with the MACD rising. AMZN, EBAY, and PCLN performed solidly on Thursday. AMZN and EBAY are looking especially good with immediate resistances at $75 and $30, respectively.

Happy Easter!!
HappyTrading! ™


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