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Premarket Analysis for 3/14 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By OptionDragon

Bob Marley- Stir It Up

From briefing.com
mar-14-upgrades.png

Boeing (NYSE: BA) raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Started At Buy at Broadpoint.
Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU) started as Underweight at JP Morgan, target $91@JPMS

Reuters writes that Yahoo! (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) have begin informal discussion about the buy-out.
Reuters reports that JP Morgan (JPM) is in talks about buyng half of the Target (TGT) credit card business.
The Wall Street Journal writes that the SEC plans to tell companies that they can provide ranges for the values of securities that are hard to gauge.
The Wall Street Journal writes that many start-ups hold he same illiquid auction rate securities that big companies do.
The New York Times reports that an FDA panel has recommended limiting the use of anemia drugs from Amgen (AMGN) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). FDA Advisory Committee placed severe restrictions on Aranesp@FBRC
The FT writes that that the dollar dropped to a record low.
Bloomberg writes that Chinese factory spending rose 24% causing more concerns about inflation.

AAPL: Checks suggest Mac’s enterprise penetration is growing@PACS
Pacific Crest’s recent checks indicate that increasing Mac penetration in enterprise environments is likely over the next 12 to 18 months. They believe iPhone will create a dual halo effect within the enterprise and maintain an Outperform rating.

Genentech-DNA 9am investment community meeting in NY 3/14.

Google’s Android likely to outsell iPhone, some believe-Engadget
Sources believe Google’s (GOOG) Android will outsell Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone if the OS is robust upon its global release later this year, and as it is likely to be available on handsets from Motorola (MOT), LG, HTC and Samsung. Additionally, Rich Manager, the group manager for Google’s mobile platforms, said that the Android SDK, which he says can do things the iPhone DSK cannot for now, has been downloaded 750,000 times as of February, compared with Apple’s 100,000 in four days.

Intel will launch first quad-core CPU for notebooks in Q3.

Bear Stearns (BSC) is trading down (-1.64%) after the UK Times reported that the emergency Fed TSLF was all about staving off liquidity concerns at the company which may have led to a collapse.

Banks may be for sale, but acquirers are scarce-WSJ
A number of banks are in a financial mess and may look to sell, but where are the buyers? Asks the Wall Street Journal.

NVDA: Estimates lowered following channel checks in Asia@JPMS
JP Morgan’s lowered their estimates after channel checks suggested a weaker market for desktop graphics in 2008. However, they believe NVDA’s market share is defensible and maintain an Overweight rating.

CVTX FDA PDUFA Date for NDA for Regadenson CVT-3146 3/14.

Investors are also awaiting a speech today by President Bush, who is speaking to a gathering of economists, and who is expected to say that the economy is slowing, but is fundamentally sound and poised for higher growth.

Total videogame sales top $1B in February in the U.S.-Next Generation
According to the NPD Group, videogame sales in February were driven by a 47% increase in software sales. The top software title during the month was Xbox 360’s (MSFT) ‘Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare.’ Total videogame sales came in at $1.33B. During the month, sales of Sony’s (SNE) PlayStation 3 and Nintendo’s (NTDOY) Wii topped Xbox 360 sales. In an interview, the Xbox 360 group product manager said shortages of the console will be alleviated before April 29, when ‘Grand Theft Auto IV’ is released.

Sears names new head of retail operations-Chicago Tribune
Sears Holdings (SHLD) has chosen Kevin Holt, a former executive vice president of retail at big-box store chain Meijer, to head Sears’ retail operations. Holt’s new title at Sears is executive vice president of store operations. He has been with Sears since September.

POT: Well positioned to benefit from rising phosphate prices@RBCM
RBC believes the increase in phosphate rock prices will result in higher production cash costs for non-integrated phosphate fertilizer producers. They believe POT is well positioned to benefit as the company has access to low-cost, high-quality phosphate rock. Shares remain Outperform rated.

Cramer last night liked RIO to $57. Liked DOW, MON, Sell NOK.

Fast Money- For the the Final Trade- Joe Terranova recommends Calpine Corp.(CPN)
Guy Adami prefers Home Depot Home Depot Inc (HD)
Karen Finerman likes Goldman Sachs. Pete Najarian thinks Genentech (DNA) is a buy.
They didn’t like the refiners.

About the CPI- The Consumer Price Indexes or CPI numbers come out Friday, explains Karen Finerman, and if those numbers are hot the market could sell-off. Be prepared.

The market is expecting a huge number, adds Guy Adami. If it turns out to be benign it’s possible we could see an explosive move higher in the stock market simply because inflation fears are so prevalent. My bias is on the long side, he says.
Joe Terranova agrees. If you want to play inflation I recommend iShares Lehman TIPS Finerman adds.

Gartman was on here is the CNBC excerpt:
It’s a mixed bag, according to Dennis Gartman, commodities trader and author of The Gartman Letter. Gold could be slowing down temporarily, he said. He certainly wouldn’t build a position at these levels. If you want to buy gold, Gartman would wait for a pullback.

On the other hand, the agriculture commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans show no signs of stopping their runs. As long as the country is using ethanol as a fuel source, there will likely be a supply issue with corn. We just can’t produce enough to feed livestock and provide ethanol, he said.

Stocks like MON, MOS, POT, AGU are all ways to play this side of the agriculture boom, according to Gartman. Even after these stocks have ramped, he still doesn’t see enough people “aggressively buying” them. And some – like POT, according to Guy Adami – still seem cheap even after their big runs.

The following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BIIB), ( C), (CSCO), (MS), (YHOO), (MSFT); Najarian Owns (FNM) Puts; Najarian Owns (DNA) Calls, (COP) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman’s Firm Owns (AAPL), (AEO), (FNM), (MSFT), (TSO), (VLO), (WMT), (YHOO), (SUN); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IJR), (IYR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (COF), (LEH); Gartman Owns (COIN), (PBR), (GLD), (GWR), (SJT), (DE), (NFLX), (CQB), (SDS); Gartman Is Short (GM), (DRYS), (GOOG), (CME), (WFMI), (SWY), (ING); CIBC Gartman Index Owns Gold, The Euro, Sugar
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DNA update–DNA now sees FY08 EPS of $3.35-$3.45 vs. prior view of $3.30-$3.45
Consensus is for EPS of $3.43.

AAPL: Recent filings indicate AppleTV will add DVR, reiterate Buy@AMTR
Am Tech believes that recent filings suggest DVR and TV tuner functionality will finally make its way onto a future version of AppleTV with the ability to dock an iPod and/or iPhone and to use as a remote control. They estimate that adding the ability to watch and record live TV could turn AppleTV into a billion dollar, if not multi-billion dollar business.

BA: Predict 19% share appreciation even with 18 month 787 delay@BERN
Bernstein forecasts that the schedule for the company’s new 787 plane will be delayed 12 months, but the firm thinks Boeing’s stock will rise 19% even if the 787 is delayed by 18 months, and the firm maintained their Outperform rating. Bernstein does not think Boeing will be able to obtain the Pentagon tanker contract it lost, unless Congress overrides the Pentagon’s decision. :

Art Cashin says that this day is important after the CPI. In a bottoming we need to see a rally on the 3rd day and follow through. In a bear market rally we will not get a continuation rally or follow through and we will make new lows.
He says most hedge funds are short and that short interest is very high for hedge funds, most are just out of pampers and that most haven’t traded in a bear market. lol

CPI came in unchanged and the market rallied hard in the premarket futures off of it. U.S. equity futures are now pointing to a higher open after the Consumer Price Index for February showed a break even for the month vs. an expected rise of +0.3%.

The CME Group Fed Watch suggests that traders are betting even more aggressively on a large rate cut on March 18th. As it stands no traders are betting on either a move smaller than (-50bps) or a no move at all. Those expecting a cut of (-50bps) decreased from 28% to 12% while those expecting a cut of (-75bps) rose to 88% from 72%.

Looking for a follow through day for the market and will be letting the market dictate which game plan I will adopt. Great trading today and keep positive with your eye on your goals!
Good luck!
good-morning-forever.bmp


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