Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted By Optiondragon

Kanye West - Good Life Feat. T-Pain

From Briefing.com

Clinton wins Texas and Ohio. Could be seen as bad for the market becuse of the uncertainty factor. Clinton now has the edge with a higher number of superdelagates.

OPEC is keeping its output at the same level. The oil ministers blame speculation as the main culprit for the higher oil prices. “This speculation has no link to the stable market fundamentals, which do not need any action,” the Saudi oil minister said, according to Reuters.
With the dollar losing value OPEC is receiving less revenues. They need high oil prices in order to balance out the dollar losing value.

The Wall Street Journal writes that some CEOs appear to have given stock to charity timed to get good tax benefits often acting just before a company’s shares fell. What is the matter with these greedy people?

The Wall Street Journal reports that Apple (AAPL) will not buy-back shares or create a dividend.
The Wall Street Journal wirtes that insider selling at Google has caused some analysts to suggest selling the shares short. Jonathan Moreland, research director at InsiderInsights.com, recommends shares of Google (GOOG) be sold short due to declining share price, concerned that an economic slowdown will hurt its advertising revenue and continued insider selling. Since going public, insiders at Google have sold billions of dollars of company stock through prearranged stock-trading plans; a Google spokesperson did not comment on the stock sales.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Yahoo! (YHOO) has stepped up merger talks with TIme Warner’s (TWX) AOL.
The FT writes that Amazon (AMZN) will get into the business of selling wine.
The FT reports that Facebook is talking to record labels about launching a music service.
Google (GOOG) lost a key executive to Facebook.
Bloomberg writes that auction-rate bond failures are approaching 70%.
Reuters reports that losses at Credit Agricole were worse than expected.

Microsoft started as Buy at Jefferies.
TMA downgrade to Hold by Jefferires to $3.75 from $14.

COST reports Q2 EPS 74c vs. consensus of 74c.
Reports Q2 revenue $16.96B vs. consensus of $16.85B. The company reported Q2 SSS up 7%.
Looks in-line but revenue looks real good. How the market decides to treat these numbers could give you insight into market sentiment.

SHLD- Morgan Stanley said SHLD’s margins have fallen for the past three quarters despite drops in depreciation and ad spending. The firm continues to view valuation as stretched and sees downside to $75.

AAPL- JP Morgan’s valuation scenarios suggest a pessimistic downside for the stock of $87, with an optimistic high of $168. They prefer to stay on the sidelines with a Neutral rating until they get further clarity into the risks of the Mac business.

According to BusinessWeek, Apple (AAPL) is expected to announce a strategy for its iPhone to move into the corporate market, by unveiling plans for development of more software for the iPhone, to improve security and to make it compatible with popular email systems. This move will put Apple in direct competition with Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry device.

Rumor of 3G iPhone in the next 4 months from Citigroup channel checks from Asia.

WHR downgraded and is gapping down.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is up +10.3% after reporting better than expected earnings before the open. This will move the other solars in sympathy. My favorite chinese solar IF you have to buy one and the street’s favorite is STP. FSLR is the best out of the bunch globally.

Oil inventory reports out at 10:30 am ET.
ISM Services out at 10am ET.
Fed Beige Book at 2pm ET.
Fed Cleveland Bank Pres Pianalto Speaks to Money Marketeers-NY at 7:30pm on 3/5

Updated ABK news is banks were still talking about bailout at 10 PM last night-CNBC
CNBC’s Gasparino reports the preference is to get the deal done today.

Once and if the ABK news hits today the market should take off. The news also coincides with favorable technicals coming off the lows to entice value buyers and create short covering. How long the rally will last will give us insight to if the buying has good breadth or if it is just on short covering, which won’t last long. Going long XLF, GS, MA could be an idea on the news. Seeing how long it lasts within those issues could give you insight to how earnest the buying.
Watching the TRINs (TRIN-Q, TRIN-N) to see how wide the buying is and if it lasts strongly in duration through trending could be key to seeing if the rallies are faded. The VIX is highly important too if the market flies but the VIX does not drop, that could indicate lingering bearish sentiment, it will be important to verify market actions. You can skew or manipulate certain stocks which have a higher weighting in the indices but you can’t fake market breadth (TRINs).
Instead of buying the underperformers, buy the outperformers and strongest stocks during this market pullback or correction sooo:

Ag’s- DBA, MOS, POT, CF
Gold, precious metals- GLD, AEM, GG, FCX, PCU, SWC, BVN
Energy- NG plays: ECA, UPL, UNG, EOG, DVN, SWN, APA, XTO, CHK
Coals: ACI, ANR (one of the best reports)
Steel- MTL, NUE, X, CLF, RS and AKS(favs)
4 Horsemen and select tech- RIMM (fav- best), GOOG(kinda- weakest), AAPL(above $129-130), AMZN, ISRG, BIDU, DNA (fav biotech right now, momo), IMCL

Still seek growth within these secular stories so if you go gold go with AEM (its opening up 5 new mines!)or GG as opposed to NEM, try to find the best technicals and growth fundamentals, sentiment is important within not only sectors but within those sectors as well.
Stick with the winners and the ones that have worked near 52 week highs. As the market has corrected and growth has contracted, the companies that still have the strong growth stories will be bid higher as the pool shrinks. You can think of growth companies in terms of supply and demand. More money chasing the less number of strong names. Now go global and your selection and choices should increase.

There was ALOT of bearish positions created in the past week so an unwinding of those positions (aka short covering) could last for a couple days. Stay nimble and drop into the zone by keeping focused, goal oriented and on constant vigil about your emotions, acknowledge them but try not to adhere to them, adhere to your game plan, rules and discipline. Stay positive and focus on the NOW. Forget your past, forget your future. Shoot that ball when all is aligned.

The Force works strongly within you.

P.S. Oprah had a great segment and a continuing series starting on Monday about her new favorite book “A New Earth”. It is worth the watch.