Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted by OptionDragon

From Briefing.com

SHLD reported lower top and bottom lines and gave cautious comments regarding the economy and its impact on results. They have spent alot of money on buybacks thus reducing cash on hand and seems to have missed a prime opportunity to shed some of their real estate holdings earlier last year before the downturn in real estate prices and the economy. They seem to have an identity crises. Look at WMT. WMT is near 52 week highs as SHLD is languishising. They should have had Kmart stick with the low end retailing and compete directly with WMT instead of trying a transformation in order to compete with Target.
Bad mistake as low end retailing is doing well as the economy worsens, stick with the Blue Light Special, shed your overlapping real estate holdings (would of cut costs and raised cash and boosted the share price).
SHLD reports Q4 EPS $3.04 vs. consensus of $3.10.
Reports Q4 revenue $15.07B vs. consensus of $15.26B.
SHLD has alot of hedge fund activity in it and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it flatline and not trend much lower, let alone reverse.

CRM is gapping up on great earnings. CRM reports Q4 revenue $217M vs. consensus of $209.19M. Sees Q1 EPS 6c-7c vs. consensus of 6c and revenue $233M-$235M vs. consensus of $228.54M. CRM sees FY09 EPS 32c-33c vs. consensus of 33c and FY09 revenue $1.03B-$1.035B vs. consensus of $1.03B. There are 4 analyst upgrades this morning with the high being $80 from DB and $70 on the low from Citigroup.
Good gap trading candidate to watch for a continuation up if the market will support it. Its valuation is fairly high with its high P/E ratios.

FLR is gapping up this morning on good earnings albeit the guidance was slightly soft. FLR reports Q4 EPS $1.33 vs. consensus of $1.18.
Reports Q4 revenue $4.71B vs. consensus of $4.55B. FLR raises FY08 EPS view to $5.10-$5.50 from $4.90-$5.30. Consensus is for EPS of $5.43.

CTRP is gapping up from great earnings last night. CTRP reports Q4 EPS 31c vs. consensus of 21c. Reports Q4 revenue $49M vs. consensus of $46M. For the full year 2008, the company expects to continue the year-on-year net revenue growth at a rate of approximately 35%.
Citigroup rose its target on it this morning from $75 to $78, reiterate Buy.
Good gap trading candidate too. But with the market weak this morning I would expect some gap filling on all the gappers this morning.

MDR came out with earnings this morning but so far the shares have a muted reponse. McDermott-MDR reports Q4 EPS 70c vs. consensus of 65c.
Reports Q4 revenue $1.52B vs. consensus of $1.45B.

FLS came out with stellar earnings last night and reaffirms its best in breed status and growth numbers. The magic word this earnings season is Buyback and FLS announces a share repurchase program of up to $300M. FLS reported Q4 EPS of $1.67 vs. consensus $1.23. Reported Q4 revenue of $1.109B vs. consensus of $1.07B. FLS also increased its dividend by 67%. I liked this going into the numbers and also it is in a favorable investment cycle sector right now but decided not to write about it due to the fact that it has a fairly wide bid/ask spread on its options. Gabelli continues to believe that the company’s gross margin will trend higher and maintains a Buy rating. Good one to watch for continuation or a stock trade. Great gap though.

After the bell we have earnings from DELL, DECK (my fav, read my recent article on it this weekend), CMED, BVN, KSS.

AAPL was the big news last night as the Tim Cook AAPL COO reaffirmed sales of 10 million iPhones this year and that gave a confidence boost in the future performance and numbers going forward for the company. Steve Jobs hsa been on a ttear flying all over the globe recently and that indicates according to some news sources as an indicator of more product launches and/or new partnership agreements possibly with the iPhone. According to BusinessWeek, now is the time to buy back Apple (AAPL) stock because shares are 40% below a historic high. A share buyback could boost its EPS, an upward lift “it needs,” and will signal management’s belief that Apple’s “best days are ahead.” A $10B repurchase program could boost its EPS by 10%.
Also just in: On Thursday, March 6, at 10 am PST, Apple (AAPL) is hosting “an iPhone software road map” to reportedly provide details about the iPhone software development kit
I will be actively hawking and trading AAPL today.

EIA Natural Gas storage reports are coming out today at 10:30 am ET and could move the energy markets and NG plays. BillBigD a valued member and awesome trader of our group had some insight into my recent NG plays.
A follow up to OD’s article on Seekingalpha

Apache Corp. (APA) is a $36 billion market-cap Houston based energy company that reached a new 52 week high intraday Tuesday and could possibly continue moving higher in the near term. The 12 analysts that cover the stock have raised its current quarter earnings estimates from 2.24 a share 90 days ago to 2.59 today. It has a low 14 price and earnings ratio with very nice 52% revenue growth year over year and 106% earnings growth.

XTO Energy Inc. (XTO) is another Texas based energy company involved in the exploration and development of oil and gas properties domestically. The analyst are not as convinced about XTO’s earnings growth in the quarter as they are about Apache’s, but for the current year, the 30 analysts that cover the stock have increased their expectations from 3.42 a share to 3.59 a share. This stock has a 17 P/E with 33% revenue growth (yoy) and 8% earnings growth.

SWN has earnings today after the bell and RIO before the bell tomorrow. Both are important for their sectors and ones to watch and read.

GDP came inline or softer than expected and that has put additional pressure on the premarket futures. The weekly initial jobless claims report showed 373.000 vs. an expected 350,000. Then the 4th quarter GDP preliminary reading showed that the economy was growing at a pace of 0.6% vs. an expected 0.8%. The GDP reading was unchanged from the 3rd quarter.

Ben is speaking today again and PCE inflation gauge (Fed’s favorite inflation measurement) is tomorrow which will move the market also.

I will be looking for great setups that will be in the direction the the market decides to move in. I am alos planning to strangle DECK going into earnings either with a even weighted strangle or overweight calls dollar weighted. I expect it to be volatile.

Good Luck and tap into the zone today, be focused and concentrate on what’s in front of you.
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