Wang’s Happy Trading

The market was, again, volatile this week, but, it came away with a win. For the week, the Dow added +166.08 points; SPX gained +18.7 points; and Nasdaq garnered +16.95 points.

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,

“For the new week, things are likely to be very tricky. First of all, it is the options expiration week, where things are normally very volatile with lots of expiration manuevers going on. Second of all, with the 10-day and 20-day MAs touching and the MACD flattening out, indecision and confusion seem to be painted in the charts. If the market is strong and the 10-day MA crosses above the 20-day MA early in the week, we may be range-bound (SPX 1325-1410; Nasdaq 2300-2450). If we see any weakness opening the week, the 10-day MA will likely get pushed below the 20-day MA, which could signal another leg lower.”

The volatility was a given. We also saw lots of expiration manuevers, especially on Friday. The market started the week on the strong side and we ended up seeing a range-bound market.

Let’s quickly review the week’s actions. On Monday, the market fought brilliantly to stay alive and finished with good gains. On Tuesday, the market continued pushing upwards, but, the techs were flat. On Wednesday, the market made a jump, attempting to go above the daily MAs. On Thursday, the market came back down, seemingly drawing more economic concerns from Bernanke’s statements. On Friday, the market was down most of the day. But, at about 1pm EST (10am PST), I said on the member board,

HappyTrading
Posted February 15, 2008 at 10:12 am | Permalink (Edit)
market
boy, this market is in a dire need for some positive afternoon movements; don’t like how the daily charts (SPX and Nasdaq) are looking right now.

As if performing on a cue, the market started to show signs of life. SPX eventually ended the day in the green, up +1.13 points! Nice comeback!

I ended up with a pretty good, but still light, trading week:
BSC ($83.20)
BVDCQ, March 85 calls, at $5.2, +26.8%

GOOG strangle, at $5.65, +25.5%
GOPBX, Feb 540 calls, at $4.5
GOPNV, Feb 520 puts, at $1.15

FCX March 95 calls, FCXCS, at $6.7, +27.6%

RIMM ($93.96)
RULCY, March 96.625, nibbled at $5.85, +9.3%

JOYG ($64.5)
JQYCL, March 60 calls, at $7.8, +4%

But, being the expiration week, the volatile and crazy market left me with 4 expired plays:
CME Feb 700 calls, CWOBT, at $4.7 (EXPIRED, nibbling)
EBAY Feb 30 calls, XBABF, at $1.25 (EXPIRED, nibbling)
OIH Feb 170 calls, OIHBN, at $6.25 (EXPIRED)
GDX Feb 52 calls, GDXBZ, at $4, $1.6 (EXPIRED, avg cost $2.8)

GDX was a play on house’s money (see plays from 1/8-1/11). But, no excuse, I could have gotten this out with a much smaller loss. GDX is a very volatile ETF, and, I shall look for future opportunities to make more profittable trades. CME and EBAY were two small earnings gambles that perhaps would have worked out much better with strangles or other types of spreads. OIH has also been volatile, and traded above $172 on Thursday. In the future, I will have to give myself more time in playing this ETF.

Our friend, OptionDragon, have had a great week! He made a bullish call last weekend on FSLR, and followed through with a “home-run” play on its earnings. On Friday, he also made a great call to short the coal plays:

optiondragon
Posted February 15, 2008 at 7:07 am | Permalink (Edit)
CNX short

optiondragon
Posted February 15, 2008 at 8:20 am | Permalink (Edit)
cnx btu aci anr all weak probably weaker today KOL

which all paid out handsomely by the end of the day:

optiondragon
Posted February 15, 2008 at 9:35 am | Permalink (Edit)
5 bagger on the BTU puts.

optiondragon
Posted February 15, 2008 at 8:50 am | Permalink (Edit)
My cnx call on the puts were golden this morning up 500%+

Great job, dragon! Congrats!

There’s only 1 new trade this week left open:
MOS March 105 calls, MOSCA, at $7.3 (open)
Friday close: $6.8; unrealized gain/loss: -6.8%

Remember, Monday is a holiday, as we celebrate President’s Day. Enjoy your long weekend!

HappyTrading! ™