Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted by OptionDragon

Common and Lily Allen, Drivin’ Me Wild.

HAPPY HAPPY VALENTINE’S DAY TO ALL….To all your loved ones, the ones that drive you wild.
The ones we live for, the ones we die for.

From Briefing.com

BIDU beat handily last night and is gapping up. 24/7 and some reports say that Q1 guidance is weaker than expected but it is important to READ or listen to why it is softer than just read the headline. The reason is because of the Chinese Winter storms which knocked power out to a big portion of China. An act of God does not mean that the company performance is getting softer but actually the reverse when you extrapolate the earnings number. They beat on the top line and the bottom line BIG time. They are ramping up going into the Olympics and search and internet traffic usage will go higher all year. The expansion into Japan took even more out of the EPS number so that means taking out the Japan expansion expenses, BIDU outperformed on the bottom line even more than the results showed. The Japanese expansion will add to the top and bottom line in the future but will hurt in the now. Good excuse if you ask me. Thats why it is important to read into the numbers and look into the reasons not just the numbers.
GOOG is also moving into the online music sector in China very soon and that would be a negative for BIDU, it would seem convenient for the company to issue soft guidance knowing that the GOOG monster is entering. BIDU could be a good pick up on an IV implosion and pullback for the long term.
Baidu.com-BIDU: Would be buyers following Q4 upside@PACS
Pacific Crest believes BIDU’s guidance may prove conservative and feels the company’s long-term outlook remains strong. Shares remain Outperform rated
Good news is that JP Morgan announced a 6.2% passive stake in BIDU and RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Outperform
VCLK gapping up on settlement and earnings.

U.S. equities now point to a flat opening; Jobless claims decrease
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a flat opening after the release of the jobless claims report for the week of February 9th. The report showed that jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 348,000, in-line with analysts expectations. The Trade Balance report for the month of December showed a deficit ($58.1B) which was slightly better than expected as exports rose. Investors will now be looking to the testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson, who be appearing before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 am ET. :theflyonthewall.com
YHOO is now in talks with News Corp.
More FSLR upgrades: First Solar-FSLR target raised to $366 from $308 after ‘outstanding’ Q4@PACS
Pacific Crest maintains an Outperform rating.
Comcast (CMCSA) gapping up, after a much better than expected earnings report before the bell.
UBS AG (UBS) is down (-5.6%) after reporting heavy writedowns and providing weak guidance for 2008.
Goldman Sachs-GS target lowered to $245 from $264, maintain Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank lowered their estimates on expectations for mark-to-market losses but feels many of these losses should be transitory in nature and could reverse if and when the credit markets stabilize.
Watch PCLN and CMG for earnings after the bell. I will be playing CMG after the numbers since it likes to move after the fact although bid/ask spreads are wide. I will be strangling PCLN overweight long dollar weighted.

UPDATED 10:35am PT- PCLN too expensive and risky for a strangle already priced in a $13-15 move not a good risk/reward ratio. Pass, trading it afterwards tomorrow.

The market could stall until after Ben speaks so watch for good setups and be patient.

FSLR was a homerun for our Happy Trader’s and my homework really paid off. Here are some comments from our Happy Traders:

kwan
Posted February 13, 2008 at 6:30 am |
first multibagger on FLSR - w00t!

Rad
Posted February 13, 2008 at 12:40 pm | Permalink
Thanks OD on FSLR trade. Today I bought/sold Feb 230 calls on 3 times with 700% profit.
Rad
Posted February 13, 2008 at 12:51 pm | Permalink
Yesterday i had double diagonal spread. This morning i bought at 2.10, sold 5.50, bought 3 and sold 6.10. Learning from you!!!. Thanks OD

Now this is what being a Happy Trader is all about and that is finding great trades, sharing information and finding community to help all traders prosper. Now on to the next high probability play.

Happy Hunting and go get em’ Tiger!