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Market Forecast for Week of 12/3 (Part I): SPX, Nasdaq

This has been a very good week for the market! The Dow rallied up over +390 points; SPX gained more than +40 points; and, Nasdaq gained +64.36 points!

Last weekend, I said, “This coming new week could be very important in setting the tone for the rest of the year. It is the holiday season, so, this weekend’s retail numbers will be important and could affect the moods on the market. We’ll need to see if the market can continue where it left off on Friday. If the market fails to reach above the 10-day MA, we’ll need to be prepared to play more on the downside. But, if the market can continue higher and close above the 10-day MA, it could establish a bottom here.” The retail numbers were good, and with the Fed signaling further rate cuts, the market saw buyers coming back in.

On Monday, the market didin’t do so hot, but, we locked in profits on, RIG, BIDU, VIP, AAPL, GOOG, and GRMN! On Tuesday, the market rallied in spite of weaker consumer confidence data, and we continue to make profittable trades on GRMN, BIDU, AMZN, and AAPL. On Wednesday, the market made a HUGE jump and we were there to capture the gains! On Thursday, the market took it easy and so did we. On Friday, the market was volatile, with the broader market making some gains and the techs taking time to vent. The Dow added almost +60 points; SPX gained +11.42 points; Nasdaq lost 7.17 points.

Here’s how the market looked on Friday at the close:
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HGX (housing) made a big jump, almost +5%! USO (oil) was down 2.41%. XLF (financials) managed to gain +2.48%. It is interesting to note that MDY (mid-caps) was stronger than the broader market, adding +1.19%. FXI (Chinese ADRs) gained $2.46, or +1.33%

SPX
spx_11_30_07.jpg
SPX added +11.42 points to close at 1481.14, right at its 30-day MA. The 10-day MA has turned up and the MACD is rising. These are positive signs. Above the 30-day MA, the resistance range would be 1500-1520.

Nasdaq
nasdaq_11_30_07.jpg
Nasdaq was weaker than the broader market on Friday, losing 7.17 points to close at 2660.96. It tested its 30-day MA, but, came back down to close just above its 20-day MA. Its 10-day MA has already turned up, with the MACD rising. Above its 30-day MA, the resistance range should be 2725-2775.

So, the market is looking healthier. For the new week, if the market continues to rally above the 30-day MA, we could see the above mentioned resistance range tested. It’ll be very interesting to see how the market positions itself before the next Fed meeting, which is on 12/11. Staying above the daily MAs would be a good (bullish) sign.

Hope you’re enjoying your weekend. I’ll be back tomorrow to look some interesting sectors.

Happy Saturday and HappyTrading! ™


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  1. […] weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said, “So, the market is looking healthier. For the new week, if the market continues to […]

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