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Market Forecast for Week of 8/27 (Part I): SPX, Nasdaq, Dow

The market dashed for the finish line this week. The Dow finished up nearly +143 points; SPX gained +16.87 points; and Nasdaq garnered almost +35 points. Here are how the 3 major indices did for the week:
Dow +300 points, +2.29%
SPX +33.43, +2.31%
Nasdaq +71.66 points, +2.87%

Here’s a snapshot of Friday’s close:
indices_8_24_07.jpg
Most sectors were up. The Chinese stocks (FXI) were up huge, again, another +4.08%. Many of these stocks have overtaken the their July highs (for example, ACH, CHL, LFC), and seem to be looking to go higher! The metals and mining (XME) was particularly strong, adding +3.39%. The oil service (OIH) continued with its recovery, up +2.07%!

On Thursday, I said, “…I do consider today’s market actions pretty bullish, holding its levels. After 4 consecutive days of gains, a little profit-taking is good. … Now, we’ll have to see if the market can continue to rise towards the 30-day MAs.”

SPX
spx_8_24_07.jpg
SPX actually finished just above its 30-day MA on Friday! Its 10- and 20-day MAs have begun to turn up, and the MACD continues to rise.

Nasdaq
nasdaq_8_24_07.jpg
Nasdaq almost made it to its 30-day MA. Its 10- and 20-day MAs have also turned up. The MACD continues to go up as well.

In my new post series, Weekly Wrap, this week, I posted some members’ comments, including my own. At the end of the day on Friday, I cautioned members to start locking in some profits and keep some cash. I think we’ll have to be careful in the beginning of the new week. At 30-day MA, the market could go a little higher, but, we might see some profit-taking. This could be the test for the recovery. If the market oscillates around the 30-day MA, but, stays above the 20-day MA, it might lure enough sideliners to come in and carry things higher. I will also be watching the strength of the financial sector, XLF. Again, if XLF demonstrates strength, the overall market should do well.

I’ll be back to look at some specific sectors tomorrow.

Enjoy your weekend!
HappyTrading! ™


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3 Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. […] reading Happy Trading’s charts daily may be hazardous for your portfolio in this critical market juncture.  Last week, Happy […]

  2. […] market was volatile today. It found plenty of resistance at the 30-day MA (see my post this weekend). But, one group shined through: the Chinese stocks! I mentioned some of these stocks in my sector […]

  3. […] Last weekend in my forecast, I said that “this could be the test for the recovery”. On Monday, the market struggled against its 30-day MA. On Tuesday, the market was spooked by economic data, and really gave the recovery a good test. On Wednesday, the market roared back, as investors positioned themselves for Friday’s Fed speech. I also said on Friday (of SPX), that “I think it might have enough strength to go above the 30-day MA this time.” On Thursday, the market got a little shy just before the Fed’s speech, and we went ahead and locked in some profits. On Friday, well, you know what happened: we made lots of money and the market closed above the 30-day MA! […]

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