Wang’s Happy Trading

Submitted by Optiondragon

I Turn My Camera On- Spoon

From Briefing.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Friday, May 9th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Harris Corp (HRS), concerned about its future growth, may see limited opportunity and may consider selling itself, the Wall Street Journal reported. If it does decide to sell, suitors could include Raytheon (RTN), BAE Systems (BAESY) and Northrop Grumman (NOC)…The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing…FINANCIAL TIMES: As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup (C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank’s cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company…NEW YORK POST: According to sources, the New York Post reported that the ax may fall as early as next week on some investment bankers at Bear Stearns (BSC)…

PCLN reports Q1 EPS 76c vs. consensus of 60c
PCLN reports Q1 revenue of $403.2M vs. consensus of $377.2M. Expects Q2 EPS $1.25-$1.40 vs. consensus of $1.30. Sees FY08 EPS $5.25-$5.65 vs. consensus of $5.12.

PCLN target raised to $155 from $125, reiterate Buy@BOFA
Banc of America raised their estimates and target after the company’s beat and raise quarter and continues to believe PCLN should continue to outperform as it penetrates the growing international online travel market and captures domestic share.
PCLN target raised to $161 from $137, maintain Hold@SBSH
Citigroup raised their target following the March quarter upside but maintains a Hold rating waiting for a better entry point.
PCLN target raised to $175 after strong Q1 results@PIPR
PCLN remains Piper’s Top eCommerce Pick.

TBSI reports Q1 EPS $1.62 vs. consensus of $1.19
Reports Q1 revenue $131.57M vs. consensus $84.18M

CNQ reports Q1 EPS $1.35 vs. consensus of $1.18
Reports Q1 revenue $3.96B vs. consensus of $2.46B.
Actionable.

AIG reports Q1 EPS ($1.41) vs. consensus of (76c)
AIG also announced a plan to raise approximately $12.5B in capital to fortify its balance sheet and provide increased financial flexibility. (Q1 EPS includes a pre-tax charge of approximately $9.11B for a net unrealized market valuation loss related to the AIG Financial Products Corp. super senior credit default swap portfolio

LEAP reports Q1 EPS (27c) vs. consensus of (2c)
Reports Q1 revenue $468.4m vs. consensus $459.49M
Actionable.

ATW reports Q2 EPS $1.30 vs. consensus of $1.15
Reports Q2 revenue $113.53M vs. consensus of $109M.
Actionable.

OII: solid growth story and attractive valuation - Barron’s Online
Oceaneering Int’l (OII) should benefit from the rise of underwater oil and natural-gas exploration. It has carved itself a rather lucrative niche. OII is the leading provider of remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) to support underwater drilling activity. OII also supplies “umbilicals,” tubular structures that let floating drilling rigs supply power, communications, chemicals and other support needed at the well sites on the seafloor. Over the past 2 years, OII has widely outperformed the oil-field services group, due to strong growth and their market leading position in these service areas. Day rates for the ROVs have been climbing with the rising number of offshore projects. Its customer base include Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Brazil’s Petrobras (PBR), as well as specialty exploration-and-production firms. But since October, the stock has lost 20% of its value. Delayed underwater projects, due in part to weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea, have in turn delayed customers from signing contracts for umbilicals with OII. Also, investors have been chasing after hot natural-gas plays, according to RBC Capital Markets. Evan Smith, co-manager of U.S. Global Investors’ Global Resources Fund, says that with the $300B expected to be poured into offshore E&P over the next several years, “the market opportunity continues to grow and OII is the leader in their industry.” He expects a slew of upcoming contracts for umbilicals and an increase in related manufacturing activity at the company’s plants to propel the stock to previous highs and hopefully hit new highs. OII shares trading 17.6x estimates for the next four quarters, is cheaper than when Barron’s Online first wrote about the company, then at 19x, more than 2 years ago.

RIMM estimates raised for FY10 and beyond@JPMS
JP Morgan believes the Blackberry upgrade cycle is driving faster unit shipment growth than they previously anticipated and that RIMM will win 2.5% share of the global handset market in 2009. As such, the firm raised their unit shipment forecast for FY10 to 33.6M and for FY11 to 43.5M. Their FY10 EPS estimate goes to $5.09 from $4.90. JP Morgan reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock.

SNCR: Expect shares to recover near-term@GSCO
Following a management meeting, Goldman said it believes the low end of guidance factors in iPhone revenue expectations that are close to zero should the activation process shift away from the current on-line model. The firm does not believe AAPL will allow this change and that trends outside the iPhone remain robust. Shares are Buy rated. Target $19.

Strong demand benefits U.S. Steel-IBD
These days three steel companies account for 70% of production. With demand–and prices–high, U.S. Steel (X) is one of the biggest beneficiaries, according to Investor’s Business Daily’s “The New America”. The company gets half of its prices from the spot market and the other half from contracts. It manufactures flat-rolled and tubular steel products for the auto, container, construction and appliance sectors, and operates through flat-rolled products, U.S. Steel Europe and the tubular products segments. It also has its own supplies of iron ore and coke, two key ingredients needed to make steel products. “That gives it a cost advantage over other domestic producers that buy from third parties,” says Bob Richard at Longbow Research. In the first quarter, U.S. Steel’s earnings actually missed expectations, mostly because of outages at its Canadian plants. Profit fell 24% to $1.77 a share ex items, analysts expected $1.81, but revenue climbed 38% to $5.2B. CEO, John Surma is unfazed: “We anticipate that our second-quarter flat-rolled average realized price will track the sharp increase in spot market pricing, affecting about 50% of the company’s shipments.” He expects income from operations to increase “substantially in the second quarter. “I have never seen a company use the word ’substantially,’ so clearly they see a dramatic improvement in the second quarter,” says Mark Parr at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

C to ‘Get Fit’ by reducing legacy assets, focus on returns
Citigroup said in order to create value they will Get Fit (reduce legacy assets, focus on returns, increase asset productivity, manage risk and re-engineer cost base), Restructure Citi (clear goals, strategy and structure, get the right business mode, and have transparency and accountability) and to Maximize Citi (fully leverage the model, performance based culture, focus on talent, innovation and creativity and harness information advantage).

NVDA upgraded to Buy from Sell@STFL
Stifel upgraded NVDA as they believe downside risk is limited and is outweighed by the potential for an improving outlook for the company’s earnings ability. Target $26.

ATVI upgraded to Buy from Hold@KBRO
Kaufman Bros. upgraded shares as they believe the company’s guidance argues for a richer post-deal valuation and there is a long trade into the merger with Videndi. Target raised to $34 from $27.50

First Solar-FSLR initiated with a Buy, target $450@SBSH
Citigroup believes FSLR’s 2-3 year lead on the competition and the power of the model should become more apparent as the company ramps the new Malaysia facility in the first half of 2008.

TRLG reports Q1 EPS 29c vs. consensus of 26c
Reports Q1 revenue $53.4M vs. consensus of $46.12M. Sees FY08 EPS $1.52-$1.56 up from prior $1.48-$1.52 vs. consensus of $1.51. Sees FY08 revenue $220M-$225M up from prior $210M-$215M vs. consensus of $214.24M.
Actionable. I had this name into earnings.
Brean Murray upgrade to buy and price target raised to $29 from $24.

MYL: Guidance now appears achievable@GSCO
Goldman said MYL’s updated guidance now appears achievable albeit it is lower than expected. The firm said it is important to note that guidance excludes DEY, removing an overhang from future dilution created from the sale. The firm rates shares a Buy.

URBN: Recommend following Q1 sales@COWN
Cowen raised Q1 EPS estimate following solid Q1 sales and believes inventory is well managed to support continued solid business trends. Shares are Outperform rated.

Energy Conversion-ENER downgraded to Neutral from Buy@BPSG
Broadpoint downgraded shares on valuation.

Apple job listsing may point to multi-carrier iPhone - AppleInsider
Apple’s (AAPL) new job opportunities signals a multi-carrier strategy in Australia, Brazil, and Mexico following the America Movil (AMX) and Vodafone (VOD) international deals.

DRQ reports Q1 EPS 62c vs. consensus of 69c
Reports Q1 revenue $132.4M vs. consensus of $136.11M.

NOV target raised to $92 from $87, reiterate Buy@SBSH
Citigroup raised their estimates to reflect the accretive Grant Prideco acquisition.

BID reports Q1 EPS (9c) vs. consensus of 10c
Reports Q1 revenue $129.3M vs. consensus of $141.41M.

VLO removed from Conviction Buy List; maintain Buy@GSCO

SunPower-SPWR initiated with a Hold, target $105@SBSH
Citigroup believes SPWR is faced with high cell production costs its silicon cost and installation cost advantages are increasingly commoditized and finds the risk/reward even at current levels.

HES upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight@LEHM
Lehman upgraded HES based on valuation.
Actionable.

CRZO upgraded to Add from Neutral@SOCO
Capital One Southcoast upgraded CRZO following the Q1 report. Target $74.

Fast Money Position recap- First Moves- Guy Likes CSCO, Karen Llikes JPM, Pete like NKE, Jeff says take profits on ATVI. Adami Owns (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (BTU), (AGU), (NUE); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (ENER), (TSO), (XLF), (BKC); Najarian Owns (AA) Calls, (EK) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (BID) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, (C) Calls, Najarian Owns (BUD) Calls; Macke Owns (MSFT), (INTC), (ATVI); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Owns (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (HD), (KALU); Finerman’s Firm Owns (YHOO) And (YHOO) Call Spreads; Finerman’s Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman’s Firm Owns (AEO), (MSFT), (NYX), (PLCE), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (IJR).

Watching the financials (brokers -GS, JPM, LEH, MER and XLF) for reaction and follow through on the AIG news.
Watching the energy stocks- NG, Oil, Coal, solar, OIH plays. The 4 Horsemen, UUP and currencies, TLT.
PCLN, CNQ, NOV, TRLG, HES, TBSI, ATW, FXI weakness. Keep focused, have patience and pick plays with a high probability success. Seek the zone and remember to run technicals through supply and demand (resistance and support). Buy oscillator dips on objective pivot point support levels, reverse for shorts. Good Luck and great trading.

Submitted By Optiondragon

Kanye West- Stronger

From briefing.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Thursday, May 8th from flyonthewall.com
FINANCIAL TIMES: According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics (GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder…Following the collapse in March of Bear Stearns (BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the “explicit mandate to supervise” investment banks…NEW YORK TIMES: According to the New York Times, Citigroup (C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks…The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP (BP), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. ExxonMobil (XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal…

HANS reports Q1 EPS 29c vs. consensus of 35c
HANS reports Q1 net sales of $212M vs. consensus of $220.7M.
HANS: Maintain Overweight rating after weak Q1 results@JPMS
JP Morgan expects results to improve the remainder of the year.
HANS downgraded to Neutral from Buy@GSCO
Goldman downgraded HANS following the weak Q1 report.

TGT CEO says April SSS ’slightly below’ planned range.
TGT reports April SSS up 3.1% vs. consensus of up 4.5%

RIG downgraded to Hold from Buy@STFL
Stifel downgraded RIG based on valuation.

PXD target raised to $84 from $81 after strong quarter@DBAB
Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

GOOG target to $700 from $570, reiterate Buy@UBSW
UBS said shares of GOOG may test highs due to improving sentiment and new revenue opportunities.

FFIV upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform@RBCM
RBC Capital believes the worst is over for IT spending and that FFIV will benefit from new product launches. Target to $32 from $25.

CNX downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight@MSCO

AIG’s troubles keep mounting-WSJ
American International Group (AIG) isn’t expected to report a very good quarter today, thanks to the subprime mortgage mess. That’s not news, but according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard on the Street”, what may happen over the next several years may not be very pretty either. “They are more vulnerable, because the capital cushion gets dented,” says Nigel Dally at Morgan Stanley. “The fundamentals are being hit from a lot of different angles.” Their corporate directors insurance business and financial products unit are also troubled, and more write-down may be coming which would pressure its International Lease Finance Corp. as it borrows money to buy planes.

CROX reports Q1 EPS 9c vs. consensus of 10c
CROX reports Q1 revenue $198.5M vs. consensus of $196.67M. The company still sees 2008 revenue growth between 15%-20% and EPS ex-charge $1.70-$1.80, and with the charge $1.54-$1.64, vs. consensus of $1.60. CROX guides Q2 EPS ex-charge 45c-50c, and with a charge 42c-47c, vs. consensus of 43c. The charge is 16c due to the shutdown of the company’s Canadian manufacturing operations.
CROX Q1 results mixed, maintain Neutral rating@JPMS
JP Morgan believes the company maintaining FY08 guidance and inventories were positives, but that weak gross margin and the sluggish US business were negatives. They do not see any reason to get more positive or more negative on the stock after the quarter.
CROX: 1Q EPS a penny short of expectations; maintain estimates@BARD
With weather having improved globally, sell-through improved as well. Management reiterated 2Q and FY08 guidance which is ahead of consensus for both the 2Q and 2008. Quarter-to-date inventory down already $10M and management anticipates a decline of 10%-15% at the end of 2Q, while declining even more by the end of 3Q08.Target price $21 and Outperform rating maintained.

Yingli Green Energy-YGE signs sales contract with IBC Solar
Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited announced that it has entered into a sales contract with IBC Solar AG, one of the leading specialists in PV systems worldwide. Under the terms of the contract, Yingli Green Energy is expected to supply a minimum of 35 MW of PV modules to IBC from May 2008 to December 2008. In addition, IBC has an option to purchase a maximum of another 45 MW of PV modules from Yingli Green Energy in 2009.

RIMM needs growth in last month to make Qtr@TDSI
TD Newcrest said it is NOT calling for RIMM to miss but notes the company needs growth in the last month to hit guidance. The firm expects RIMM to meet its 2.2M sub guidance but they do not expect them to beat this number. Shares are Buy rated.

ENER reports Q3 EPS 17c vs. consensus of (6c)
Reports Q3 revenue $70M vs. consensus $66.71M.
ENER expects Q4 revenue $73-$78M vs. consenus $73.13M
Actionable.

Fast Money position recap- First Moves- Jeff says to trim positions o the USO, Guy likes DOG, Karen likes YHOO for 3 days, Pete likes UNG.
Adami Owns (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (AGU), (NUE), (BTU); Pete Najarian owns (AAPL), (C) Calls, (ENER), (MSFT) Calls, (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO) Calls; Macke Owns (INTC), (DIS0, (ATVI), (MSFT); Finerman’s Firm is Short (IYR), (IJR), (SPY), (MDY), (IWM), Owns SPX Index Puts, (AEO), (MSFT), (NYX), (PLCE), (TSO), (VLO), (YHOO) and (YHOO) Call Spreads, Finerman Owns (GS), Finerman and Finerman’s Firm Own (C).

Watching the 4 Horsemen, BIDU, PCLN for earnings, ATW for earnings, DRYS (gap up), MT (gap up)and steels, the sell off yesterday was induced by proposed new SEC rules for the brokers and banks which took down the financials and in turn cascaded into a selloff across the board. So goes the brokers, so goes the market is key still and hawking the XLF will be important for clues for market direction. Watching YGE, CROX, MA, V and ENER (earnings blowout). Watching for a bounce today in the markets.
Have focus and patience and pick plays with a high probability of success. Great trading and great day!

Submitted By Optiondragon

Red Hot Chili Peppers - Road Trippin’

From Briefing.com

On The Fly: Periodicals Wrap-Up for Wednesday, May 7th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal reported that an alliance of cable, Internet and chip titans will announce plans to invest $3.2B in a company that will deliver Web access for laptops and cellphones using WiMax. The venture, valued at over $12B, includes Sprint Nextel (S) and Clearwire (CLWR) and will be backed by Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG)…According to people familiar with the matter, Robert Verrone, one of the most zealous commercial real-estate lenders during the industry’s boom, will leave Wachovia Corp (WB) within the next week…BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice is probing whether UBS AG (UBS) helped clients evade American taxes. In an e-mailed statement, the firm said one senior bank employee was “briefly detained” by authorities…TECHCRUNCH: According to a rumor, TechCrunch reported that the Yahoo (YHOO) board of directors yesterday authorized Yahoo chairman Roy Bostock, rather than CEO Jerry Yang, to call Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer about re-starting negotiations…

CEPH: FDA votes against Fentora label expansion; still a Top Pick@FBRC
Fentora sales estimate in 2008 is $161M increasing to $199M in 2012 and the lack of label expansion doesn’t have an impact on solid L-T growth trajectory. FBRC finds the stock to be attractively valued given the company’s solid L-T EPS growth being maintained by Amrix and Treanda. Target price $95 and Outperform rating maintained. :

CSCO: Believe stock will perform in-line with large-cap tech@JMPS
After Cisco reported Q1 results in-line with JMP Securities’ estimates, the firm believes the stock will trade in-line with the market for large cap tech stocks, due to the company’s lack of visibility, according to the firm. JMP Securities maintained their Market Perform rating.

CSCO: Remain buyers of the stock, reiterate Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank believes CSCO is at the beginning stages of several major product cycles and reiterates a Buy rating following the company’s Q3 results. Target $30.

CLF: Estimates raised, remains a top metal pick@JPMS
JP Morgan said CLF’s guidance demonstrates the company’s leverage to rising iron ore and met coal prices. The firm views valuation as attractive and said CLF is an increasingly attractive acquisition target for its North American steel customers. Shares are Overweight rated.

STP to supply BIPV solar system in France
SuntechPower Holdings Co., announced it has signed an agreement with Hanau Energies SAS to supply a 4.5MW building integrated PV system to a farm located in Alsace, France. The project will be one of the largest BIPV installations ever built and will employ Suntech’s ‘Just Roof’ modules to form complete weatherproof roofs on five agricultural warehouses on a farm in the Alsace region of France. The 4.5MW installation is anticipated to be completed by January 2009 with an additional 1MW already being planned.
STP gapping up on this news. Looks actionable to the long side.

MTL announces contract for new melting complex
Mechel OAO announces that its subsidiary, Southern Urals Nickel Plant OAO, and Bateman Engineering have signed a contract on the construction of a new melting complex for Mechel’s nickel plant. The contract, which is signed in accordance with the investment program of Southern Urals Nickel Plant, provides fundamental re-equipment of the plant and includes the design and supply of a 12 MW DC furnace. The furnace will be erected at Southern Urals Nickel’s existing facility. The total project value is US$31 million.

APC: Raised 2008 EPS/CFPS to reflect increased production estimate@FBRC
The firm believes the higher end of production guidance through 2010 is attainable. Increased target price to $95 from $82 with an Outperform rating.

CSCO: Shares will likely be range-bound@OPCO
After Cisco reported results for its Q3 that Oppenheimer views as solid, Oppenheimer thinks the shares will be range-bound until there is more visibility on a U.S. recovery. However, the firm is still optimistic about Cisco’s growth prospects, and they maintained their Outperform rating.

NVDA target raised to $25 from $23, maintain Hold@SBSH
Citigroup expects NVDA to issue guidance below consensus estimates, but points out that is widely anticipated. However, they see further downside to estimates after checks suggested that from 1 week of inventory in February, levels have increased to 3 weeks in March and now sit at 4 weeks.

RIG reports Q1 EPS $3.71 vs. consensus of $3.34
Reports Q1 revenue $3.11B vs. consensus $3.05B.

APC upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform@BERN
Bernstein upgraded APC based on expectations that international investments will improve, driven by success in offshore Ghana. Target to $87 from $66.

PXD reports Q1 EPS $1.07 vs. consensus of 84c
Reports Q1 revenue $584.2M vs. consensus of $546.84M.

KWK reports Q1 EPS 25c vs. consensus of 25c
Reports Q1 revenue $157.5M vs. consensus of $154.59M.

CTRP downgraded to Neutral from Buy@PIPR
Piper downgraded CTRP based on valuation. Target $68.

SOHU downgraded to Hold from Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares on valuation and expects 2009 growth to be modest. Target raised to $78 from $75.

DVN reports Q1 EPS $2.74 vs. consensus of $2.33
Reports Q1 revenue $2.97B vs. consensus $3.28B.
Gapping up.

FWLT reports Q1 EPS 85c vs. consensus of 73c
Reports Q1 revenue $1.8B vs. consensus of $1.48B.
Gapping up.

CHK gapping up.

FSLR gapping up.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” recap- Cramer has called 2008 “the year of natural gas”. He especially likes Anadarko Petroleum (APC), which he called a “must buy” on March 25, and since then the shares are up $11.51. Cramer says APC could rise to $100 in the next 18 months. Cramer extended his optimism to the entire natural gas sector and the drillers in particular, as growth rates for the natural gas drillers are averaging 15%, and the sector’s excellent visibility is another plus. Rounding out his favorite natural gas drillers, Cramer also recommended DVN, APA, SWN, UPL, ECA, XTO, EL, COP, NBR, and HAL. Regarding the prices of oil itself, Cramer raised his price target from $125 to $150 a barrel, and that you “haven’t missed the move yet.”

Fast Money position recap- First Moves-
Jeff likes XLF, Guy likes MRK, Pete likes AAPL, Karen thinks KALU is a buy before earnings.
Adami Owns (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU), (AGU); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (TSO), (XLF); Najarian Owns (BSC) Calls, (BUD) Calls, (CSCO) Calls, (EP) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, ( C) Calls; Macke Owns (DIS), (INTC), (MSFT); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (HD), (KALU); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (NYX), (PLCE), (TSO), (VLO), (JCP), (AEO); Finerman’s Firm Owns (YHOO) And (YHOO) Call Spreads; Finerman’s Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Finerman’s Firm Is Short The British Pound.

Watching solars (esp. FSLR, STP) and energy going into and after oil inventory reports. Hawking MA, V, Shippers- DRYS, GNK, DSX, FRO, EXM, TBSI, DVN and RIG after earnings gaps, 4 Horsemen esp AAPL, MTL and steels, Met coal plays- MEE, CNX, ICO, FDG, ANR, WLT, CLF, TCK, Chinese plays and FXI is gapping down which is something to watch. Focus on the positives, pick plays with a high probability of success, run technicals through supply and demand (pivot lines, support and resistance levels). Great trading and good luck!

Submitted By Optiondragon

Breaking the Girl-Red Hot Chili Peppers

From briefing.com

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, May 6th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Three years into its $35B takeover of Nextel, the Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint Nextel (S) is considering selling or spinning off the troubled unit. Few details were available and a deal is not imminent…The Wall Street Journal also reported that pressure is mounting on Citigroup’s (C) CEO Vikram Pandit to show that he can turn around the troubled bank. Executives believe Pandit, who has been praised for his cautious and deliberate approach, has been taking “too long” to make crucial decisions…REUTERS: According to a person close to Google (GOOG), Reuters reported that it and Yahoo (YHOO) are still “hammering out the intricacies” of a potential advertising and search deal. The source said no final agreement has been reached yet…ABC NEWS: ABC News learned that if Rupert Murdoch does not testify in a lawsuit accusing one of his companies of “corporate espionage,” it may cost News Corporation (NWS.A) hundreds of millions of dollars, a federal judge overseeing the trial said. News Corp has denied any wrongdoing, and lawyers maintain Murdoch had no direct knowledge of the unit’s alleged hacking into EchoStar Corporation (SATS)/DISH Network’s (DISH) security code and posting it on the Internet…

Google and Yahoo haven’t finished negotiating a deal yet-Reuters
Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) are still hammering out the details of a potential advertising and search deal, an inside source said. No final agreement has been reached yet, and the two sides are also sharing their plans for a potential deal with antitrust regulators, the source added.

Crude oil heading to $200?-Bloomberg
A Goldman Sachs Group (GS) report from analysts including Arjun N. Murti say the price of crude oil may climb to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as supply fails to keep up with demand from developing nations.
Oil prices likely to hit $150-$200/bbl in next 6-24 months@GSCO
Goldman raised its oil price forecast and said $150-$200/bbl oil is likely in the next 6-24 months due to lack of supply growth. . The firm raised its 2008 price estimates to $108/bbl from $96, 2009 to $110 from $105, 2010 to $120 from $110, and 2011 to $120 from $110. The analyst added that the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty.

Apple one network strategy may be unraveling - Times Online
Italy became the first country to sell Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone on a non-exclusive basis ending a year-long stretch in which only one operator had the right in each country. Vodafone (VOD) and Telecom Italia (TI) announced that they had both won contracts for the iPhone which means that Apple could face revolt in other countries against the existing one-carrier terms.

Blackrock will by sub-prime portolio from UBS - FT
Sources say that Blackrock (BLK) will pay UBS AG (UBS) $15B for a portfolio of subprime mortgage debt. The bank is expected to make the announcement when it reports today. This latest move fuels growing optimism about the credit markets followed by Goldman Sachs (GS) and other private equity firms buying mortgage assets.

Marvel Entertainment-MVL: Believe there will be better entry points@RBCM
RBC raised their target to $37 from $30 following the quarterly results and Iron Man release but believes there will be better entry points following Hulk’s June 13th release as they are no catalysts after that until 2010. Shares remain Sector Perform rated.

Sprint Nextel-S: Unlikely to sell iDEN business@LEHM
Lehman said it is unlikely Sprint will be able to sell its iDEN business given the complexity of the unwind. :

U.S equity futures still point to a lower open; Fannie Mae posts big loss
U.S. equity futures are still pointing to a lower open. The futures had been pointing to a relatively flat open until Fannie Mae (FNM) released its quarterly earnings report. The company posted a higher than expected loss, announced they would cut their dividend, and said they would raise $6B to shore up their balance sheet. Foreclosure filings surged 23% in the first quarter and were more than double last year. The company said that home price declines and rising foreclosures that started in the subprime market have spread to high quality loans that make up the bulk of their business. In other subprime news, UBS (UBS) posted an $11B loss and said they would cut 5,500 jobs. These results helped to drop the futures well below fair value.

Martin Marietta-MLM reports Q1 EPS 50c vs. consensus of 64c
Reports Q1 revenue $399M vs. consensus of $454M. Sees FY08 EPS $6.25-$7.00 vs. consensus of $6.37.

Agrium-AGU resumed with an Outperform from Sector Perform@RBCM
RBC resumed coverage of AGU and upgraded the stock to Outperform as they view shares as attractively valued at current levels. RBC raised their target to $115 from $67.

Louis Navellier’s Quantum Growth Update
Louis Navellier’s Quantum Growth Update is positive on ADBE, CMP, GLW, SOHU, and TEX; cautious on GTLS, GEOY, RICK, and SWIR.

PCLN: More cautious about results, maintain Market Weight@TWPT
Thomas Weisel is more cautious about Priceline.com’s ability to beat Q1 consensus estimates by a large margin. The firm is more cautious about the stock in general due to their expectation for higher marketing spending by the company and little visibility into its international business. The firm maintained their Market Weight rating.

NVDA: Expect in-line EPS for April quarter@JMPS
JMP Securities believes Nvdia is experiencing increasing pricing pressure in mid-range PC graphics. The firm believes that Street estimates for the company may have to fall 5%-10%, and they recommend waiting for a better entry point before buying the stock. They maintained their Market Perform rating.

JRCC reports Q1 EPS (78c) vs. consensus of (50c)
Reports Q1 revenue $138.2M vs. consensus of $140.48M.

Tesoro-TSO coverage resumed with an Underweight@JPMS
JP Morgan expects the West Coast margins to remain weak given the decline in the gasoline demand and capacity increases of the majors.

JOYG is recently trading down $2.84 to $75.80 in pre-open trading. JOYG lowered its forecast for 2008 earnings to $2.96 to $3.22 a shares from earlier views of $3.15 to $3.45 a share. JOYG kept revenue guidance at $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion. JOYG is a manufacturer and service provider of surface and underground mining equipment.
Let’s see how both BUCY and JOYG react to the lower view.

FNM is recently trading at $25.80 in pre-open trading, below its close of $28.29. FNM reported Q1 EPS ($2.57) verses consensus estimates of (81c). FNM announced plans to raise $6 billion through common and preferred offerings. OFHEO will reduce FNM’s capital requirement to 15% from 20%. FNM will reduce its 3Q dividend to 25c.

STP initiated with a Buy, target $64@JSLC
Jesup & Lamont initiated STP with a Buy based on the company’s leading position in solar PV, industry growth and polysilicon supply agreements in place.

CLF: Recommend accumulating shares on any weakness@DBAB
Deutsche Bank believes the company’s guidance for 2008 was upbeat and remains on track and reiterates a Buy rating with a $170 target.

SHLD: Continue to recommend investors avoid the shares@DBAB
Deutsche Bank left SHLD’s shareholder meeting with more questions than answers and believes the company does not have the systems or operational procedures to control its business in this difficult retailing environment. They maintain a Sell rating on the stock and lowered their target to $87 from $89.

PRGO reports Q3 EPS 47c vs. consensus of 42c
Reports Q3 revenue $504M vs. consensus of $451M.

SUN downgraded to Underweight from Neutral@JPMS
JP Morgan downgraded SUN citing expected margin pressure due to high leverage to sweet crude. Note that Goldman downgraded shares of SUN to Neutral from Buy.

AG upgraded to Buy from Neutral@GSCO
Note that the firm downgraded CNH to Neutral from Buy. AG target $71.

AZO initiated with an Outperform, target $155@BERN

HES upgraded to Buy from Neutral@GSCO
Goldman upgraded HES citing the company’s leverage to higher oil prices. The firm said oil is likely to hit $150-$200/bbl in the next 6-24 months. Note that SUN was downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target $130.
Actionable call. Hawking.

AAPL Additional iPhone distribution is very positive for company@AMTR
After Vodafone (VOD) said it would offer iPhone in 10 of its markets this year and Telecom Italia (TI) said it would sell iPhone, Am Tech believes their forecast of 10M iPhone shipments for 2009 is very conservative, and they maintained their Buy rating on Apple. —Great News for AAPL

AMZN says jewelry store retail diamond sales up by more than 100%
Amazon.com, Inc. announced that retail diamond sales by Amazon.com LLC increased more than 100 percent in the first quarter of 2008. Each quarter, an increasing number of Amazon.com’s tens of millions of customers are shopping the Amazon.com Jewelry store and Watches store, especially for important gift-giving occasions such as Mother’s Day and graduation. :

Pre-Market Movers: Ahead of the Bell
In volume terms it is a relatively quiet session this morning without much in the way of a theme or trend as yet. As this was written Yahoo (YHOO) was the volume leader, trading up +2%. This continues a rise off lows in the low 20s yesterday following the withdrawal of the Microsoft bid for the company. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price target to $24. Fannie Mae (FNM) is trading down (-5.8%) after reporting a wider than expected loss in their earnings report this morning. Freddie Mac (FRE) is trading down (-4.66%) in sympathy. Washington Mutual (WM) is trading down (-1.96%) after it filed to sell 605M shares for holders. Hess Corp (HES) is on of the bright spots this morning, trading up +2.15% after it was upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs. Apple (AAPL) is trading up fractionally at +0.4% despite a note in Times Online suggesting the company’s decision to allow two carriers to market the iPhone in Italy may create trouble in others where only a single carrier has exclusive rights. Broadcom (BRCM) is trading down (-2%) on no specific news we can see. This may be in response to Cisco’s (CSCO) upcoming earnings report after the close today. Cisco Systems (CSCO) are trading down (-0.8%) ahead of results.

Fast Money position recap- First Moves-Jeff likes HAS, Guy likes BUD, Karen Likes VCLK, Pete likes T.
Macke Owns (MSFT), (DIS), (INTC), (HAS); Adami Owns (AGU), (NUE), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (TSO), (XLF); Najarian Owns (C) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (POT) Calls, (BUD) Calls; Najarian Owns (YHOO) And Is Short (YHOO) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (TSO), (VLO), (VCLK); Finerman’s Firm Owns (YHOO) And (YHOO) Call Spreads; Finerman’s Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Finerman’s Firm Is Short The British Pound; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Owns (FNM) Calls.

Watching the usuals and seeing how the XLF and brokers will take the news from FNM. Watching, RIG for earnings, HES upgrade, ANR, coals and energy, MT (hawking long), X and steels, AG (upgrade from GS and beaten down technicals).
Keep positive and focus on your goals. Pick plays with a high probability of success! Good Luck and Great Trading!