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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, FAS, SOXX, FDN, AAPL, NFLX, GS, PNC, STT, V, QCOM, BRCM, XLNX, TXN, CELG, BIIB

Last week, in my Market Forecast, I said,

"For the new week, I think we’ll see some bounces to start the week.  We’ve got some tech heavyweights reporting in the coming week, including INTC, YHOO, and GOOG.  GS also reports on Thursday.  Friday is a market holiday.  I think Nasdaq 4000 is a strong support.  We should see some buying in techs.

Things pretty much happened as forecasted.  We saw buying on Monday.  Techs bounced.  Tuesday was a volatile, but, ultimately flat day.  After the market, both GOOG and IBM missed their earnings estimates.  But, no matter, buyers kept on buying and kept Nasdaq above 4000.

For the week, the Dow was up +381.75 points; SPX added +49.16 points; Nasdaq gained +95.79 points.  Gold sank back to below $1300/ounce while oil traded above $104/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed last week.  But, Nikkei (Japan) followed US higher with a bounce of its own.  Let’s see where the US markets stood after last week’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +2.54 points to close at 1864.85.  It closed just above its 30-day MA.  The MACD was up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +9.29 points to close at 4095.52.  It closed above its 10-day MA.  The MACD turned higher.

SPX is still staying strong, once again closing above its daily MAs.  Nasdaq, on the other hand, is struggling, barely finishing above its 10-day MA.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 4/20/2014.

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, FAS, MOO, FDN, CRM, FAS, TSLA, AMGN, CELG, GS, JPM, WFC, C, AIG, CF, MON, AGU, GOOG, PCLN, AMZN, LNKD, YELP

Tech stocks fell hard again last week, sending Nasdaq back to just below the 4,000 mark.  Broader market also succumbed to the selling pressure.  In my Market Forecast last week, I wrote:

"For the new week, I think the momentum has shifted to the downside.  Nasdaq is now testing an important support at between 4140 and 4120.  If SPX comes down to test 1850 again, it may not hold this time."

Things were directionless early in the week.  Buyers came in on Tuesday and continued to buy more on Wednesday as Fed minutes provided some relief.  However, Thursday brought more selling pressure, erasing all gains for the week and sending SPX below that 1850 mark.  The selling continued on Friday as earnings from JPM was less than stellar.

We had another great week, with big winners on the downside plays.  GS, AMGN, and CLEG puts gave us triple-digit returns.  Jumping on FAS and CRM puts also rendered nice overnight gains:

  • 12:19 | Ecstatic Plays CRM ($52.98) Sold to Close 04P55 Apr 55 put, at $2.45 +64%
  • 12:17 | HappyTrading FAS ($82.50) Sold to Close 04P87 Apr 87 put, at $5.35 +88%
  • 12:13 | HappyTrading TSLA ($200.95) Sold to Close 04P205 Apr 205 put, at $8.45 +29%
  • 11:34 | Ecstatic Plays BA ($124.50) Sold to Close 04C125 Apr 125 calls, at $1.27 -51%
  • 11:26 | HappyTrading FB ($59.60) Sold to Close 04C60 Apr 60 calls, at $1.48 -26%
  • 11:29 | HappyTrading AMGN ($119.80) Sold to Close 04P125 Apr 125 put, at $5.75 +77%
  • 11:18 | Ecstatic Plays CELG ($136.00) Sold to Close 04P145 Apr 145 put, at $9.40 +127%
  • 11:07 | HappyTrading AMGN ($118.00) Sold to Close 04P125 Apr 125 put, at $7.08 +118%
  • 08:11 | HappyTrading GS ($160.10) Sold to Close 04P165 Apr 165 put, at $5.80 +115%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

For the week, the Dow was down 385.96 points; SPX fell 49.4 points; Nasdaq dropped 128 points.  Gold bounced to just shy of $1320/ounce, while oil rose to above $103/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian stocks were     mixed.  Let’s see where the US markets closed on Friday:

SPX

SPX fell 17.39 points to close at 1815.69.  It closed below its lower BB.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq tumbled 54.37 points to close at 3999.73, just below the 4000 mark.

Thursday’s sharp drop really took the technicals down.  VIX jumped higher to close just above 17.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 4/14/2014.

Markets Bounce After Fed Minutes: PCLN, BIDU, NTES, FSLR, WYNN, QIHU, VIPS, GS, CELG, AMGN, CELG, BIIB, AA, JOY, CMI

After hitting below 1840 on the SPX on Tuesday morning, buyers started to trickle in.  Today, after the Fed minutes indicated that it would be cautious towards raising interest rates, stocks bounced.  Given that techs have been tumbling, buyers piled in on internet and biotech stocks.  PCLN popped $47!  CELG jumped more than $9.  BIIB was up over +5%.  REGN gained nearly $20.  FSLR got an target boost on Tuesday and popped right back up above $73.  BIDU, NTES, and QIHU have been leading the bounce in Chinese internet stocks.  WYNN vaulted +3.5% today.  VIPS bounced more than $20 in the past 2 days!

While things bounced we locked in our profits on the downside plays just in time (mostly on Monday)!  Our puts on biotechs and financials rewarded us handsomely:

  • 11:29 | HappyTrading AMGN ($119.80) Sold to Close 04P125 Apr 125 put, at $5.75 +77%
  • 11:18 | Ecstatic Plays CELG ($136.00) Sold to Close 04P145 Apr 145 put, at $9.40 +127%
  • 11:07 | HappyTrading AMGN ($118.00) Sold to Close 04P125 Apr 125 put, at $7.08 +118%
  • 08:11 | HappyTrading GS ($160.10) Sold to Close 04P165 Apr 165 put, at $5.80 +115%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

All 3 trades gave us triple-digit gains!

The Dow was up +181.01 points; SPX gained +20.22 points; Nasdaq jumped +70.91 points (+1.72%!!):

BTK (biotech) jumped +3.81%!  IGV (software) bounced +1.84%.  FDN (internet) popped +2.44%.

SPX

SPX gained +20.22 points to close at 1872.18.  It closed above its daily MAs.  The MACD flattened.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq popped +70.91 points to close at 4183.9.  It barely closed above its 10-day MA.

Even though stocks bounced, Nasdaq is still deep in a bearish formation.  SPX, on the other hand, seems much healthier; but, it is still, at best, neutral.  AA climbed +3.75% after reporting its earnings.  The whole metals and mining sector has been largely ignored in the past year.  It is now starting to show some signs of awakening.  Perhaps some of the funds are starting to come in from techs.  We’ll start to pay more attention as well.  JOY and CMI look very interesting.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XME, FAS, GLD, BTK, WLT, BTU, CLF, JPM, WFC, MA, V, BIIB, ALXN, PCYC, REGN, GILD, BMRN, CELG

Markets tried to bounce last week.  But, in the end, selling momentum took stocks back down.  Techs were especially weak, again!

Last weekend in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"For the new week, we should see some more consolidation.  SPX 1850 will be very important to watch.  Resistance should be heavy here.  It’s hard to see upside momentum here.  Between 1850 and 1840 is now support."

"More consolidation" it was!  The broader market spent the first 3 days climbing, setting a new all-time high at just above 1897.  But, the gain quickly vanished on Friday, as people locked in profits once again.  Nasdaq, on the other, was much weaker.

We took some quick profits on AAPL calls and scored a nice overnight trade on CELG puts:

  • 10:00 | Ecstatic Plays CELG ($138.50) Sold to Close 04P145 Apr 145 put, at $7.50 +81%
  • 08:49 | HappyTrading AAPL ($541.70) Sold to Close 04C535 Apr 535 calls, at $10.85 +13%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

For the week, the Dow was up +89.65 points; SPX added +7.47 points; Nasdaq slid 28.03 points.  Gold made a bounce to close above $1303/ounce, while oil was little changed, closing around $101/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were sliding.  Let’s see how the US markets closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX fell 23.68 points to close at 1865.09.  It closed at its 20-day MA.  The MACD turned down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq tumbled 110.01 points to close at 4127.73.  It fell all the way back to its lower BB!

Nasdaq fell so sharply on Friday; it is now back into bearish territory.  On the other hand, SPX just made a new all-time high!  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 4/6/2014.

March 2014 Monthly Wrap-up: FSLR, WYNN, GLD, SFUN, GS

March was a really volatile month. Things certainly turned bearish fast. Techs were weak, but, the broader market tried its best to hold up. SPX even made a new all-time just this past week!

We traded in on both sides and found profitable trades on both sides. SFUN calls were a quick double. WYNN puts were even more profitable. Our long-side bets on financials also worked out well, rendering a +103% on FAS calls. GLD calls gave us another +77% gain. As you can see, we slowed down our trades quite a bit. In volatile markets, you really have to allow time for the trades to work out. I find that the weeklies are too risky now, so, we are trading much further out. Here are the closed trades for March:

  • 10:28 | HappyTrading AAPL ($565.80) Sold to Close 04C545 Apr 545 calls, at $9.00-3%
  • 09:38 | Ecstatic Plays WYNN ($213.00) Sold to Close 04P230 Apr 230 put, at $17.40 +149%
  • 08:11 | Ecstatic Plays WYNN ($217.50) Sold to Close 04P230 Apr 230 put, at $14.00 +100%
  • 06:51 | Ecstatic Plays FSLR ($62.30) Sold to Close 03C57.5 Mar 58 calls, at $5.25 +38%
  • 06:51 | Ecstatic Plays FSLR ($62.30) Sold to Close 03C57.5 Mar 58 calls, at $5.20 +37%
  • 07:41 | HappyTrading QCOM ($77.39) Sold to Close 03C75 Mar 75 calls, at $2.45 +24%
  • 10:15 | HappyTrading CF ($250.70) Sold to Close 03P255 Mar 255 put, at $5.89 +12%
  • 09:51 | HappyTrading GLD ($132.60) Sold to Close 03C130 Mar 130 calls, at $3.06 +77%
  • 09:09 | Ecstatic Plays VIX ($16.50) Sold to Close 0416C15 Apr 15 calls, at $2.50 +16%, partially expired
  • 07:53 | Ecstatic Plays GLD ($131.65) Sold to Close 03C129 Mar 129 calls, at $3.05 +35%
  • 08:17 | Ecstatic Plays LNKD ($205.80) Sold to Close 03C210 Mar 210 calls, at $5.85 +22%
  • 09:48 | Ecstatic Plays LNKD ($210.30) Sold to Close 03C210 Mar 210 calls, at $7.10 +21%
  • 09:21 | Ecstatic Plays FAS ($94.50) Sold to Close 03C88 Mar 88 calls, at $7.30 +103%
  • 07:10 | Ecstatic Plays FSLR ($58.50) Sold to Close 03C57.5 Mar 58 calls, at $4.40 +16%
  • 07:08 | HappyTrading GS ($171.10) Sold to Close 03C165 Mar 165 calls, at $7.00 +56%
  • 06:36 | HappyTrading SFUN ($87.50) Sold to Close 03C80 Mar 80 calls, at $9.20 +109%
  • 09:26 | Ecstatic Plays FAS ($90.70) Sold to Close 03C88 Mar 88 calls, at $4.30 +19%
  • 09:01 | HappyTrading SFUN ($82.50) Sold to Close 03C80 Mar 80 calls, at $5.00 +14%
  • 09:32 | Ecstatic Plays LVS ($85.35) Sold to Close 03C82.5 Mar 83 calls, at $3.55 +29%
  • 06:47 | HappyTrading YNDX ($34.35) Sold to Close 03C37 Mar 37 calls, at $0.50 -76%
  • 06:43 | HappyTrading SODA ($38.12) Sold to Close 03C40 Mar 40 calls, at $1.20 -38%
  • 06:42 | HappyTrading CELG ($160.40) Sold to Close 03C165 Mar 165 calls, at $2.70 -33%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

Earnings will start next week. But, it looks like the momentum has shifted to the downside. We’ll take a closer look in my Market Forecast!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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Tech Selloff Puts Markets In Red: SPX, Nasdaq, GOOG, PCLN, YELP, FB, QIHU, SFUN, SINA, SOHU, BIDU, WYNN, LVS

Tech stocks were extremely weak.  Across the board, investors were dumping tech shares.  Internets were among the weakest.  GOOG has fallen almost $80 in just 4 trading days, while PCLN tumbled about $120 during the same time frame.  YELP has been on a continuous slide since breaking $100; it ended just above $77 today.  FB pulled back from $72 to now $60. 

Chinese internets have also been falling.  SFUN, SINA, SOHU, and BIDU all have been falling for more than 2 weeks now.  Other China-related stocks such as WYNN and LVS also fell from their recent heights.  We locked in on some nice gains on WYNN puts today:

  • 09:38 | Ecstatic Plays WYNN ($213.00) Sold to Close 04P230 Apr 230 put, at $17.40 +149%
  • 08:11 | Ecstatic Plays WYNN ($217.50) Sold to Close 04P230 Apr 230 put, at $14.00 +100%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

The Dow was down 98.89 points; SPX fell 13.06 points; Nasdaq dropped 60.69 points:

FDN (internet) was down 2.41%.  SOXX (semiconductors) dropped 1.11%.  IGV (software) fell 1.73%.  Even GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) were down!

SPX

SPX fell 13.06 points to close at 1852.56.  It closed just below its 30-day MA.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq tumbled 60.69 points to close at 4173.58.  It fell below its daily MAs.  The MACD dropped sharply.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs.  The sentiment on the market has turned more and more bearish.  I think the sharp drop in the biotechs last week was a good clue that fund managers were looking to sell.  I had also mentioned last week that stocks needed to pull back before the new earnings season.  Buyers tried to buy the dips, but, got burned today.  Things are still going pretty much along what we discussed in my Market Forecast this weekend.  So, let’s just be patient.  Downside trades have been working!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, FDN, BTK, SOXX, PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, FB, YELP, OPEN, TXN, XLNX, ADI, BIIB, CELG, ALXN, BMRN

This market keeps on testing SPX 1880.  But, it seems like there are big funds selling stocks whenever SPX 1880 is hit.  On Friday, biotechs were dumped right at open, when stocks traded higher in pre-market.  Financials broke higher during the week, after Fed opened the possibility of increasing interest rates sooner. 

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,

"For the new week, markets will likely still be unstable.  On the downside, SPX has support between 1830-1820.  On a bounce, SPX will deal with the resistance between 1850-1860.  Markets often sell of ahead of a new earnings season.  We have a couple of more weeks before the 1st quarterly reports in 2014.  It’s good to see markets consolidate here."

On Monday and Tuesday, stocks bounced higher.  Then, the market searched for a direction between 1850 and 1870.

We didn’t trade much this week.  Here are the closed trades:

  • 06:51 | Ecstatic Plays FSLR ($62.30) Sold to Close 03C57.5 Mar 58 calls, at $5.25 +38%
  • 06:51 | Ecstatic Plays FSLR ($62.30) Sold to Close 03C57.5 Mar 58 calls, at $5.20 +37%
  • 07:41 | HappyTrading QCOM ($77.39) Sold to Close 03C75 Mar 75 calls, at $2.45 +24%
  • 10:15 | HappyTrading CF ($250.70) Sold to Close 03P255 Mar 255 put, at $5.89 +12%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

It was certainly good to just hold on to cash this week, as the market consolidated.

For the week, the Dow was up 237.1 points; SPX gained +25.39 points; Nasdaq climbed +31.39 points.  Gold took a drop down to below $1340/ounce; oil bounced to close just below $100/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly up.  Here’s where the US markets closed last week:

SPX

SPX lost 5.49 points to close at 1866.52.  It closed above its daily MAs.  The MACD was slightly lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 42.5 points to close at 4276.79.  It closed right at its 30-day MA.  The MACD was down.

Nasdaq’s fall on Friday was quite sharp, although it did close higher for the week.  SPX still looks healthy.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 3/23/2014.

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, OIH, TAN, SOXX, IGV, GOOG, PCLN, NFLX, FB, YELP, LNKD, TXN, XLNX, BRCM, TSL, JKS, CSIQ, SPWR, FSLR, DO, RIG, SLB, NOV

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"Technicals are toppy, but, markets just keep climbing higher.  For the new week, I think it’s better to be cautious.  If this market pushes higher, it’s going to go parabolic!  Support is now between 1860 and 1850 on the SPX."

From Monday to Wednesday, the market struggled to find a direction.  We didn’t act at all.  One of the hardest things about trading is to be able to "not" trade.  Sometimes, when the bulls and the bears are fighting it out and the market won’t budge in either direction, pressure builds up.  Then, when one side gives in, things go really fast in the other direction.  Although Tuesday showed a bit of collapse, buyers came in again on Wednesday.  Thursday morning, stocks tried to push higher, but, it was a headfake.  Soon, selling started, and, the momentum just took over.  SPX fell below 1850.  On Friday, SPX came up to test 1850, but, was met with resistance, and ended slightly lower.

Our position on gold in GLD came back up this week, so, we locked in the profits.  A quick trade on VIX also did well, as selling pressure built up:

  • 09:51 | HappyTrading GLD ($132.60) Sold to Close 03C130 Mar 130 calls, at $3.06 +77%
  • 09:09 | Ecstatic Plays VIX ($16.50) Sold to Close 0416C15 Apr 15 calls, at $2.50 +16%
  • 07:53 | Ecstatic Plays GLD ($131.65) Sold to Close 03C129 Mar 129 calls, at $3.05 +35%

(to subscribe to our trade alerts, please visit our Services Page or CLICK HERE to watch a step-by-step instructional video)

One thing I did notice though is that right now there isn’t much premium in VIX calls.  VIX puts, on the other hand has higher premiums.  This tells me that the market is not ready to go back down yet.  People are still looking for VIX to get a pop and then go back down.

For the week, the Dow was down 387.05 points; SPX fell 36.91 points; Nasdaq dropped 90.82 points.  Gold popped higher to close near $1380/ounce.  Oil fell back to below $99/barrel.  Asian markets were mixed on Monday.  Here’s how the US markets closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX fell 5.21 points to close at 1841.13.  It closed below its 20-day MA.  The MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq lost 15.02 points to close at 4254.4.  It closed above its 30-day MA.  The MACD was down.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed between their respective 20-day and 30-day MAs.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page. If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 3/16/2014.

Markets Under Pressure: SPX, Nasdaq, HLF, GOOG, PCLN, CMG, TSLA, AMZN, CF, MOS, AGU, MON, PLUG

The US markets have been holding strongly.  But, the selling pressure finally took over.  We have not been trading much as the market has been range-bound and directionless.  Even this morning, stocks opened higher on falling jobless claims.  But, the tension in Ukraine remained and Russian is once again doing "military exercises" at the border.  Economic data out of China have not been stellar.  It looks like some investors are starting to take some profits off the table.

High flyers were hit:  GOOG down $18.24; PCLN tumbled $32.85; CMG lost $9.20; TSLA fell $3.7.  AMZN bucked the trend, and was up more than $10 in the morning on news of increased fees on its Prime service.  However, even with that news, AMZN ended flat.  Agriculture stocks have been really strong.  But, in the past week, it gave back some gains.  CF, MOS, and AGU all pulled back.  MON still looks healthy.

PLUG has been in the news.  It ran from $4 and change to more than $11 in less than 2 weeks.  On Tuesday, it dropped sharply from $11+ back down to $6!  It has climbed back up to $8, after giving a rosy quarterly report with double-digit growth!  It was up +17.65% today.  This is a good trading stock to watch.

The Dow was down 231.19 points; SPX fell 21.86 points; Nasdaq dropped 62.91 points:


BTK (biotech) tumbled 2.32%.  FDN (internet) lost 2.18%.  OIH (oil services) pulled back 1.56%.  MOO (agriculture) fell 1.64%.  XLF (financial) faired a little better, down 1.13%.

SPX

SPX dropped 21.86 points to close at 1846.34.  Its daily MAs were little changed.  The MACD turned down.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 62.9 points to close at 4260.42.  Its daily MAs and MACD were down.

Every time stocks pulled back, buyers have been on the sideline waiting.  Although today’s fall was a bit sharp, both SPX and Nasdaq still look healthy.  We are trading lightly.  SPX 1850 seems to be a good level to test.  Below that, SPX should have support between 1830-1820.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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Markets Consolidate: SPX, Nasdaq, AAPL, FSLR, VLO, PSX, MPC, TSO, SINA, BIDU, SOHU, NTES

After setting a new all-time high on Monday, stocks seem to be consolidating, as we discussed in my Market Forecast this weekend.  Even though SPX set a new all-time high on Monday, it still can’t seem to break beyond 1850.

AAPL has been very weak.  FSLR was down more than 9% after reporting a disappointing quarter and giving a weak forecast.  Energy stocks turned lower today.  Refiners were the weakest.  VLO, PSX, MPC, TSO all traded lower into the close.  Chinese internets (SINA, BIDU, SOHU, NTES) bounced a bit, after the recent weakness.

The Dow was up +18.75 points; SPX added +0.04 point; Nasdaq gained +4.48 points:

BTK (biotech) sank 1.79%.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) pulled back.  HGX (housing) popped +2.18%.  TAN (solar) jumped +3.23%, despite FSLR’s mishap.

SPX

SPX ended flat to close at 1845.16.  Its daily MAs and MACD were little changed.

Nasdaq

Nadaq gained +4.48 points to close at 4292.06

VIX bounced today, an obvious sign that the market is consolidating.  We didn’t trade for the past couple of days.  This market needs to consolidate.  Every time SPX goes above 1850, we see profit-taking.  So, let’s not chase this market right now.  Let’s see what the market does for the rest of the week.  We might look for some downside trades.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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